Hot columns money flow Thousands of shares and thousands of comments Individual stock diagnosis Latest rating Simulated transaction Mobile stock watching

　　 Sina tip: This is a research report column, which is only an analyst's personal views and opinions on a stock, not a formal news report. Sina does not guarantee its authenticity and objectivity. All effective information about the stock is subject to the announcement of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. Investors are respectfully advised to pay attention to the risks.

　　 Changjiang Securities Liu Yuanrui, Wang Hetao

　　 Bayi Steel The 2012 performance forecast was released today. During the reporting period, the company achieved 26.586 billion yuan in operating revenue, down 4.88% year on year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 155 million yuan, down 67.77% year on year; EPS is 0.20 yuan. According to this calculation, the company's operating income in the fourth quarter was 5.081 billion yuan, down 13.09% year on year and 30.99% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 103 million yuan; EPS was 0.11 yuan and -0.16 yuan in the third quarter.

At the same time, the company also announced that the company has completed the acquisition of 100% equity of Nanjiang Iron and Steel Baicheng Co., Ltd.

The number of event comments increased and the price fell, and the operating revenue in 2012 decreased year on year: with the commissioning of the Group's No. 3 blast furnace, the problem of insufficient hot metal supply was solved to some extent, the company's own capacity was released, and the output increased year on year. However, due to the continuous downturn in the industry, the domestic steel price has continued to decline since April, and began to stabilize and recover in the middle of September. The factory price of the company's products has also decreased significantly. The decline in product prices was the main reason for the year-on-year decline in the company's operating income in 2012.

In the fourth quarter, the revenue dropped significantly, and the improvement of profit may be due to the improvement of gross profit margin and the decline of expenses: although the prosperity of the domestic steel industry recovered somewhat in the fourth quarter, the company's output did not increase significantly in the traditional slack season in northwest China, and the overall output remained low and volatile, with the quarterly output declining by about 11.6% month on month. In terms of price, in the fourth quarter, the ex factory price of hot-rolled and medium plate products of the company fell quarter on quarter, and the average price of deformed steel bars rose quarter on quarter. It is expected that the overall average sales price will not change much. Therefore, the decline of the company's revenue in the fourth quarter should be mainly due to the decline in production and sales.

Under the circumstance that the operating income has dropped sharply on a month on month basis and the fluctuation of raw material price is consistent with the steel price, we believe that the reasons for the improvement of the company's net profit on a month on month basis are as follows: 1. Because of the large decline in the early mineral price, the gross profit margin of the low price inventory may have improved in the fourth quarter; 2. Considering that the company's expenses in the third quarter were at a high level, it is not ruled out that the decline of expenses in the fourth quarter will lead to the improvement of profits. Of course, this needs to be verified.

On the whole, benefiting from the stabilization of steel prices and the low price of raw material inventory, the performance of steel enterprises improved significantly on a month on month basis at the beginning of the industry's bottom recovery.

The regional advantages are obvious, and we expect the injection of the iron front system: the company plans to produce 7.8 million tons of steel and 7.4 million tons of materials in 2012, with year-on-year growth of 16.24% and 15.63% respectively. In addition, the company said that in order to reduce the amount of related party transactions and reduce the dependence on related parties, it would choose the right time to acquire the relevant assets of the controlling shareholder Bayi Iron and Steel Group to achieve the overall listing of the main steel industry, which would further enhance the profitability of the company.

It is estimated that the company's EPS in 2012 and 2013 will be 0.20 yuan and 0.41 yuan respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.

get into [Bayi Iron and Steel Bar] discuss