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　　 Changjiang Securities

Event description:

In November 2012, COSCO Shipping The fleet completed a total volume of 992800 tons, up 6.89% and 5.84% month on month respectively, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 19.55%; The turnover volume was 5.889 billion ton nautical miles, up 3.66% and 15.44% month on month, respectively, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 12.81%.

Event comment:

The traffic volume increased month on month for two consecutive months, and the cumulative growth rate slightly narrowed. The total traffic volume of the company rose month on month for two consecutive months, and the year-on-year growth rate of this month also turned positive to 6.89%, but the cumulative growth rate fell back to 19.6% from 21.1% last month. The transport volume of various ship types is differentiated, among which the transport volume of motor vehicles increased by 48.02% month on month to 40300 tons, a record high in a single month, and the transport volume of heavy lift ships increased by 128.57% month on month to 71100 tons, a large increase; On a year-on-year basis, except for the small drop in the volume of general cargo ships compared with the same period last year, the volume of other ship types has increased to varying degrees on a year-on-year basis.

Automobile and ship traffic volume reached a new high. From the perspective of ship types, the volume of truck ships and heavy lift ships rebounded significantly this month, with truck ships hitting a record high in a single month. Traffic volume of main ship types: 1) The completed traffic volume of multi-purpose ships was 529600 tons, up 4.41% year on year, down 9.45% month on month, accounting for 53.34% of the total traffic volume.

According to Clarksons' statistics, the rental levels of 9000 ton and 17000 ton multi-purpose ships were 6500 dollars/day and 9000 dollars/day, respectively, up 12.07% and down 2.70% year on year, and both remained unchanged month on month. 2) The volume of heavy lift vessels was 71100 tons, up 14.85% year on year and 128.57% month on month respectively. 3) Semi submersible ships completed 29100 tons of transportation, down 11.86% month on month.

Maintain the rating of "prudent recommendation". We maintain the company's 2012-2014 performance forecast of 0.01 yuan, 0.09 yuan and 0.18 yuan respectively, and maintain the rating of "prudent recommendation".

Risk tip: the weak response to the euro zone debt crisis and the tension in the Middle East have hindered the recovery of multi-purpose ship freight rates; The rebound in fuel prices eroded profits.

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