Zhou Jin GF Securities
Farad electron It is the largest film capacitor manufacturer in China, with six subordinate factories, with an annual output of 2.5 billion capacitors and 1600 tons of metallized film. It is widely used in communications, home appliances, power supplies, green lighting, computers, automotive electronics, industrial control and other fields.
The operation of Farad Electronics is stable and has good growth. Compared with domestic and international capacitor manufacturers (both of which are comprehensive passive component manufacturers), the main financial indicators of the company in 2005 are outstanding.
The sales of lighting and automobile will grow rapidly. In 2006, the distribution of the company's product demand is expected to be 30% for household appliances, 35% for lighting, 25% for telecommunications and 10% for others. Among them, the sales growth prospects in the lighting and automotive fields are better.
In the field of lighting: the lighting capacitor business is facing the business opportunities brought by the national "green lighting plan". This plan is a systematic project for lighting power saving and reducing environmental pollution, which helps to alleviate the contradiction between power supply and demand. At present, China's lighting power consumption is 150 billion kilowatt hours (10% of the total power generation). By implementing the "China Green Lighting Project", 30 billion kilowatt hours of electricity can be saved, 150 billion tons of raw coal can be saved, pollution can be reduced and the environment can be protected.
The implementation of the "green lighting" plan includes the promotion of the use of efficient and energy-saving electric light sources, as well as the promotion of the use of energy-saving lighting electrical accessories (such as electronic ballasts, dimming devices, etc.). According to the survey data of China Lighting Association, the total market volume of energy-saving lamps in China is growing at a rate of 30% every year. Among them, film capacitors are used for electronic ballasts and other functional devices of energy-saving lamps.
At present, Farad Electronics has entered the formal stage of selling capacitors for energy-saving lamps to Philips, Osram and General Electric. The rapidly growing domestic market for energy-saving lamps will provide broader growth space for the company's lighting business. In view of the strong product R&D ability and cost control ability of Farad Electronics, and its leading position in domestic film capacitors, we expect that the sales of Farad Electronics energy-saving lamps will keep pace with the sales of domestic energy-saving lamps, with an annual growth rate of 30%.
In the automotive field: According to the estimation of Strategy Analytics, the automotive electronics market is expected to reach 5 billion dollars in 2013, stimulated by the demand for audio, video, entertainment and communication functions. Among them, film capacitors for audio and video entertainment are the main market areas that Farad Electronics is currently expanding. In addition, the rise in oil prices and the trend of environmental protection have accelerated the development of hybrid electric vehicles (HV vehicles). The HV locomotive adopts a driving form of "internal combustion engine+motor". The motor and internal combustion engine can provide power under the most efficient conditions respectively. The feature of HV vehicle is that it can use the rechargeable battery to accumulate power to drive the motor. This process needs to be equipped with inverter circuit, in which a large number of capacitors are used to smooth the current fluctuation. The rated voltage of the capacitor in the circuit is required to reach 750V.
Because the film capacitor has self-healing property and can withstand high voltage, and the equivalent series resistance of the film capacitor is almost not affected by temperature, while the equivalent series resistance of the general aluminum electrolytic capacitor at a low temperature of - 40 ℃ is several times as much as 20 ℃, resulting in a sharp increase in power loss, so the film capacitor gradually replaces the aluminum electrolytic capacitor as the HV vehicle power system capacitor.
At present, the global car ownership has exceeded 800 million New car More than 60 million vehicles. If 10% of the vehicles produced in the world are converted to hybrid systems, the annual sales volume of HV vehicles will reach 6 million.
In June 2006, Farad Electronics obtained the ISO/TS16949 automotive electronic quality system certification issued by BSI. Although further business contact with customers and long-term manufacturer inspection are still required from obtaining the certification to entering the actual sales, and the original cooperation relationship in the automotive film capacitor market in some countries is difficult to change rapidly, However, the success of the certification marks the affirmation of the R&D and production capacity of Farad Electronics in the high-end field of automotive film capacitors, which also lays the foundation for the development of the automotive market capacitance business.
At present, the global hybrid vehicle sales volume is not much in the total vehicle sales volume, but the trend of energy conservation and environmental protection makes the market expected to grow rapidly in the future, and the film capacitor of the automotive power system has fewer competitors and a high unit price. Therefore, once it enters the actual sales, the profit margin level of this part of the business is expected to exceed the existing level.
In the field of communication: the upcoming launch of China's 3G market is expected to significantly boost the demand for communication capacitors in the next few years, making the growth rate of this part of business revenue exceed that of previous years.
Household appliances: The sales of household capacitors increased from 100 million yuan in 2000 to 120 million yuan in 2005. The reason for the slow growth is that the traditional CRT TV market shrank, thus reducing the demand for corresponding capacitors. However, the rise of other new display products, such as LCD TV and PDP TV, is conducive to increasing the demand for capacitors for household appliances.
Earnings forecast and valuation We predict that the earnings per share of Farad Electronics in 2007 and 2008 will be 0.59 yuan and 0.71 yuan respectively.
Sina statement: The content of this article is purely the author's personal view, only for investors' reference, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
