Original title: Trump considers restarting the economy! US stocks rose another 700 points, and the global diagnosis reached nearly 1.4 million! Blackstone CEO warned: US GDP will lose $5 trillion Source: e company official micro blog
Unexpectedly, although the epidemic situation is still fermenting, the US stock market has undergone a sudden change. After a 3000 point surge yesterday, today's market opened up and rose nearly 4% again. As of press release, the Dow rose more than 700 points.
However, the global epidemic has not yet reached its peak. According to the real-time statistical data released by Johns Hopkins University, as of 20:00 on April 7, Beijing time, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the world exceeded 1.36 million, reaching 1360039 cases, 75973 cases died, and 184 countries and regions were confirmed.
US stocks rose nearly 700 points again
In fact, the overnight surge in the US stock market has been predicted in the daytime. Among them, American stock index futures rose collectively.
The Asia Pacific stock market is also very proud. By the end of the day, the Shanghai Index had risen 2.05% to 2820.76, with a turnover of 286.628 billion yuan; The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 3.15% to 10428.91, with a turnover of 445.455 billion yuan; The index rose 3.31% to 1969.78. The accumulated net inflow of capital from the north exceeded 14 billion yuan. The Hang Seng Index rose 2.12% to 24253.29.
European stock markets also rose after opening. As of press release, Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 2.19%, France's CAC40 index rose 2.79%, and Germany's DAX index rose 2.19%.
In the evening, the US stock market opened nearly 4% higher, but then fell back. As of press release, the Dow rose 3.13%, the Nasdaq rose 2.1%, and the S&P 500 rose 2.75%.
In terms of individual stocks, Tesla rose 7.44%, and its market value once returned to $100 billion.
American Airlines rose generally, with American Airlines up 19%, Delta Airlines up 7%, Southwest Airlines up 11%, and Boeing up 11%.
In terms of Chinese concept stocks, Weilai rose by more than 12%. However, affected by iQiyi's short selling, many Chinese concepts fell. At one time, iQiyi plummeted by more than 10%, and as of the press release, it fell by 2%. The shock intensified, and stocks such as Tiger Teeth and NetEase Youdao also fell in succession.
In addition, crude oil that had risen sharply in a row before fell back, with ICE oil distribution falling 0.27%.
It is worth noting that the FTSE China A50 index has turned from up to down after a straight dive, and has fallen by more than 1% as of press release.
US GDP will lose 5 trillion US dollars?
The epidemic situation is still the key to the trend of the financial market. According to the statistics released by Johns Hopkins University, there are more than 11000 deaths of COVID-19 in the United States.
The governor of New York State said that the death rate of COVID-19 in New York State increased by 731, a new high in a single day, with 5489 deaths in total. He also said that the state government would invest in private enterprises to expand the scale of testing.
At the same time, the United States is studying to restart the economy. US Treasury Secretary Mnuqin recently said that more than 3000 lending institutions have participated in the small business loan plan, and the banking industry has performed well in the debt reduction loan plan; President Trump is studying which areas of the economy can be reopened.
The US national economic adviser Cudlow said that the government planned to restart the economy, hoping to achieve it in a few weeks; Undoubtedly, the bad economic data will continue for several weeks.
Steve Schwarzman, CEO of Blackstone, said that the isolation and blockade measures taken to fight against COVID-19 were unprecedented and were causing huge damage to the business community. "Fortunately, this is only temporary, but it has brought pressure to everything," Schwarzman said in an interview. "At present, our GDP is about 21 trillion US dollars, and we are likely to lose 5 trillion US dollars."
World Health Organization: The epidemic has not yet reached its peak
Gao Li, the representative of the World Health Organization in China, said that seeing such a mortality rate and these shocking figures, one can think of how COVID-19 has affected the economic and social development of human beings. The number is still growing, and obviously has not reached its peak. When can we say that we have really overcome the epidemic?
That is to say that we have really defeated the epidemic until we have an effective vaccine to vaccinate the population, or until people have formed enough mass immunity after being exposed to the virus.
ILO: 81% of the employed population affected
On the afternoon of the 7th local time, the International Labour Organization held a press conference. The organization predicted that the COVID-19 epidemic would have a profound impact on 195 million full-time employees in the world in the second quarter of 2020, and far exceeded the impact of the financial crisis in 2008-2009. Guy Ryder, Director General of the International Labour Organization, said that the final growth value of the global unemployment rate in 2020 will largely depend on the development and policy measures of countries in the future. The year-end data is likely to be significantly higher than the ILO's forecast of 25 million on March 19.
More than 5000 confirmed cases in Japan
There were 242 newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Japan on the 7th, with a total of 4340 confirmed cases. The Tokyo Metropolitan Government added 80 confirmed cases of COVID-19 that day, more than 80 cases for six consecutive days.
In addition, with 712 confirmed passengers and crew members of the "Diamond Princess" cruise ship, 5052 cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed in Japan. The confirmed cases include 108 deaths, including 97 people infected in China, and 11 passengers on the "Diamond Princess" cruise ship.
On the evening of April 7, Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan, announced at the meeting of the Headquarters of the Japanese Government on COVID-19 Epidemic Countermeasures that the seven prefectures and counties of Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, Chiba, Osaka, Hyogo and Fukuoka were emergency from today to May 6. The basis for Abe Shinzo to issue the declaration of emergency is the Special Measures Law revised to prevent the spread of the new coronavirus epidemic. Shinzo Abe will hold a press conference at 7 p.m. Tokyo time to explain to the Japanese people the reasons for this emergency declaration.
More than 60000 confirmed cases in Iran
Iran's Ministry of Health announced on the 7th that as of noon of the same day, 2089 new cases had been confirmed in Iran, with 62589 cases in total, 3872 deaths in total and 27039 cured in total.
The epidemic in Europe is still spreading.
140000 confirmed cases in Spain
According to the data released by the Ministry of Health of Spain on the 7th, 5478 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 743 new deaths were reported in Spain compared with the previous day, with a total of 140510 confirmed cases, of which 13798 died and 43208 were cured and discharged.
More than 55000 confirmed cases in Britain
There were 3634 newly confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the UK, with a total of more than 55000 cases.
According to the latest news, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that Boris is currently in stable condition and in good spirit. His transfer to intensive care is just a preventive measure.
The spokesman said that Boris had not been diagnosed with pneumonia, although he did receive a positive result from the nucleic acid test of COVID-19.
How can I get to A-share?
The epidemic situation abroad is still not optimistic, and Wuhan in China is ushering in the unsealing.
With the control of the domestic epidemic, the capital of Beishang also began to kill back the A-share market. On April 7, the capital of Beishang had a net inflow of 12.674 billion yuan, a new high in more than two months. At the same time, the inflow became regular this year.
In addition, from the perspective of single day net purchases, only 11 days since the opening of the Shanghai Hong Kong Stock Connect have seen net purchases of more than 10 billion yuan, and the 7-day net inflow ranks fifth in history. Considering that the global cooperation on epidemic prevention and control has been strengthened, as well as the stimulus policies of various countries on the economy, the risk appetite of capital for going north has been strengthened again recently.
Founder Securities It is believed that the core concern of the current market operation lies in two points:
First, the change of overseas epidemic situation, we need to pay attention to whether the inflection point of the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is continuously confirmed, and whether the epidemic situation in emerging countries such as Brazil, India, South Africa, etc. will break out. At present, the overseas epidemic situation is near the peak, but as the urgency of economic restart in various countries gradually increases, the balance between subsequent epidemic prevention and control and economic development will become increasingly fierce, The possibility of long tail or double peaks of the epidemic still exists;
The second is how to interpret the domestic countercyclical policy. The last two weeks are the window period for the release of important economic data. After the setting of the tone at the meeting of the Political Bureau on March 27, the countercyclical policy will gradually increase, and subsequent changes in fiscal and monetary policies need to be focused. Monetary policy can focus on the reduction of reserve ratio and interest rate, while fiscal policy can focus on the adjustment of deficit ratio, expansion of special debt and special national debt.
With the spread of overseas epidemic, external demand will be restrained to a certain extent. From the perspective of policy focus, investment and consumption related to domestic demand will become the key direction of hedging economy, and three directions can be focused on in configuration:
First, after the impact of the epidemic, the economy has maintained growth in the environment of weak external demand. The policy is still driven by infrastructure, including two aspects. The traditional infrastructure plays a supporting role in stabilizing growth, while the new infrastructure plays a role in adjusting the structure, focusing on engineering machinery, building materials, architectural decoration, etc;
Second, the epidemic situation in China is drawing to a close, and the pace of life and production will gradually return to normal. With the support of policies, the delayed consumption during the Spring Festival and the first quarter will be compensated, focusing on cars, commerce, etc;
Third, under the trend of monetary easing, the financial sector also has allocation value after interest rate reduction.
