Duan Shao translated: Is it foolishness for the whole people to speculate in the stock market?
http://www.sina.com.cn 15:13, September 6, 2007 China Industrial Economy News
Duan Shao translated: Is it foolishness for the whole people to speculate in the stock market?
Our reporter He Yitao reports
Under the hype of "irrational" majority of shareholders and "very rational" majority of institutions across the country, and boosted by the comments of some economists and stock commentators that "the sharp fall does not change the bull market", the Shanghai Composite Index really hit a new high and finally closed at 5218.82 points on August 31. Once again, it created a "stock market myth" in China. In this regard, the reporter of China National Economy News interviewed Duan Shaoyi, a researcher of Beijing Tianze Economic Research Institute.
Duan Shaoyi said that although the "Shanghai Composite Index" really broke through 5200 points, it still had to make "value investment" to gain profits. That is to say, the profits you get are real only when the enterprise you invest in really creates profits for you. Otherwise, it is "foolishness", that is, the money you earn is the money lost by other shareholders.
Statistics show that the contribution of investment income to performance of A-share companies is too high. Compared with the same period last year, the contribution rate of A-share main business to its total profit decreased by nearly 30%, while the investment income increased significantly, and the contribution rate to profit increased by more than 50%. After the split of earnings per share, various indicators are also not optimistic. The substantial increase of earnings per share is still mainly due to the growth of investment earnings, that is, to earn their own money or "Bo silly" earnings. The sustainability of earnings growth of listed companies is questionable.
Since this year, social funds have continuously poured into the A-share market, leading to a sharp rise in the main board stock indexes of Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The Shenzhen Composite Index has more than tripled from July last year to recent days, far exceeding the growth rate of 28% of the operating income and twice the growth rate of net profit of listed companies.
Shenzhen Stock Exchange also specially reminded that the situation of companies with poor performance and losses is not optimistic, and there are still 100 companies with operating losses. Although the earnings of Shenzhen A-share market soared in the first half of the year, the profit distribution of listed companies was very scarce. In addition, there are still 22 "nail households" listed in the share reform.
Duan Shaoyi said that in the movement of "all people speculate in stocks and all people follow the foundation" myth Today's stock market has become a real "Bo Silly" under the temptation of, people who are still rushing to the stock market today think that it doesn't matter that they are "silly", anyway, there are people who are more "silly" than themselves will take the last stick.
Duan Shaoyi said, "The total profits that can be obtained by the holders of tradable shares=the total profits that the holders of tradable shares share from listed companies - stamp duty paid to the state and service fees paid to securities companies and exchanges". In fact, the total profits that can be shared by the holders of tradable shares from listed companies in 2007 are far from enough to pay stamp duty and transaction costs, that is, Not only can listed companies not earn a penny for the holders of tradable shares this year, but also the holders of tradable shares have to pay most of the transaction costs from their own homes.
Now there is a popular saying: "Buy now shares Who expects to share the profits of listed companies? How can we make money by sharing the profits of listed companies? "
Duan Shaoyi said that hype can make profits, but what wins is not the profits created by the enterprise, but the profits paid by other "fools", namely the so-called "Bo fools". The real stock market should be an "investment place" that can speculate. It values investment, but allows speculation. However, if the stock market becomes a "speculative place" for investment, it is very dangerous.
Today's two "players" are institutions (dealers) and retail investors. However, the subtle difference from this kind of gambling game is that today's stock market is "one" to "many". If you don't play, another person will take your place immediately. Therefore, "institutions and dealers" are easy to win. Once they win, they decide not to play, so retail investors suffer losses. Because the influence of both sides is not equal, the big family has the ability to influence the "stock commentators" and "media". As long as he has not won, he can use the stock commentators and media by any means to say "the bull market will not change after a big fall" every day. Please feel free to play until they win the biggest hand. The retail investors did not know it was a plan. They played with enthusiasm, and eventually lost all their money!
Institutional investors are mainly fund companies. Fund companies use the money of "base people" to buy stocks. Anyway, they don't use their own money. If they earn money, they can share more bonuses; Yes, the management fee of the fund company is still paid, and the bonus is still paid.
Now, many retail investors are also "base people". If retail investors follow institutional investors' hype, and if retail investors run fast before the sharp fall, institutional investors will suffer. However, institutional investors' money is the money of basic people anyway, and institutional speculators don't care. However, if the retail investors let the institutional investors run away before the sharp fall, the retail investors will be even worse. It is the common people who suffer in the end.
