The difficulty of economic regulation has further increased
http://www.sina.com.cn 08:44, January 17, 2007 China Securities Network - Shanghai Securities News
□ Ni Xiaolin
Just entering the New Year, the changes in the market are amazing. As a result, many people in the economic circle said that the difficulty of regulation is still increasing, and 2007 will further test our ability to control the open economy.
Just entering 2007, the real estate market in Beijing broke the amazing news that the houses outside the Fifth Ring Road had reached 8000 yuan per square meter. In fact, people living in Beijing know that this is a late news. In the second half of 2006, the housing prices of some residential areas outside the Fifth Ring Road in Beijing had already reached 7000 or 8000 yuan, and some housing prices had reached 10000 yuan or more at the end of the year. However, the news in the press at least tells people that the effect of macro-control is worth monitoring. The subsequent rise of the stock market hit a record high at the beginning of the year. Investors were excited and new investors actively entered the market. It is reported that loan stock speculation has revived in disguised form.
The two major markets that can quickly divert excess financial liquidity have performed well in the new year, but many people are worried about such rapid market changes. Nowadays, there are obviously different opinions in the economic circles to evaluate the above two important markets. One view is that the two major markets are active at present. Although they are different in form, they are actually because Chinese assets have a strong attraction for global funds. Hot money is rushing here. The two major markets that foreign investors are most interested in are also real estate And the stock market. In economic terms, China's asset prices are increasing with China's economic development. In addition to the bear market for several consecutive years, domestic investors lack the channel to share the rapid economic growth, so it is normal to see the "big move" of bank deposits.
Another view is that bubbles are accumulating in our two major markets. Some people in the economic circle predicted that the Asian financial crisis would recur in 2008, and they were even more critical of the sharp rise of the stock market. The yellow book recently issued by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences also reminds us to be alert to the repetition of the economic downturn in Japan for ten years caused by the real estate bubble in China. Of course, we can't ignore the third opinion. Those overseas institutions' comments on China's economy in 2007 are even more diverse. The mainstream opinion has repeatedly reminded us that the U.S. economy is still declining, which will affect the growth rate of Asia, especially China's economy, This is also what the United Nations stated in the 2007 World Economic Outlook report: after maintaining the historic high-speed growth for three consecutive years, the growth rate of the world economy will slow down to 3.2% this year.
Of course, we can question these views and predictions again, but we cannot turn a blind eye to what is happening.
First, to what extent will excess liquidity reach? Do we have such a large market and the ability to digest it. From the perspective of the inflow of overseas capital, there are many people who want to invest in China, and the incoming capital is also various. If the pension funds in the United States are eager to try the Chinese market, we can't help paying more attention to the purpose of the inflow of capital. Especially when investment and speculation are confused, policies tend to fail under people's confusion.
Second, the game of multiple interests will become more intense. Whenever we open the Internet and newspapers, we will always see people's housing price , share price and even oil price are arguing endlessly, for example, macro-control For the real estate hit by the policy, whether the land price drives up the house price or the house price drives up the land price, the representatives of the two opinions are exactly two different social levels. It can be seen that the game between the market forces and the government's regulatory measures has not stopped so far, and from the view that the house price continues to rise at the beginning of the year, the game will continue. Therefore, if the multi-party game is upgraded, it will inevitably increase the difficulty of regulation.
Third, the power from the market will continue to increase as we become more integrated with the international economy. Recently, the business of foreign banks entering China has increased rapidly, and the flexibility of financial products is much higher than that of our local banking industry; For enterprises with foreign capital entering important domestic industries, although the merger and acquisition of domestic enterprises is active, it is still difficult to compete with the abundant foreign capital. Once the door of the market is opened, the power from the market will further increase, which will bring more complex problems.
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