At 16:45 Beijing time on Monday (November 19), the main COMEX gold futures contract traded near 1221.20 US dollars/ounce, which was affected by the intraday fluctuation of the US dollar index, but not far from the more than one week high of 1226 US dollars set last day. Continue to pay attention to the speech of the Federal Reserve in the evening, the progress of the Brexit Agreement and the Italian budget. Last Friday (November 16), due to the dovish remarks of Kararida, the Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the market began to doubt the gradual interest rate increase policy of the Federal Reserve, and lowered the expectation of the fourth interest rate increase in December, and the dollar index fell to 96.3. The dollar index rebounded slightly during the day, with the euro and emerging market currencies falling slightly and other currencies showing little change.
Gold flows with the US dollar, paying attention to the speech of the Federal Reserve
At 23:45 Beijing time on Monday (November 19), John Williams, chairman of the Federal Reserve of New York and permanent vote committee of FOMC, attended the discussion of the Spanish Chamber of Commerce in New York City. Williams is a hawkish official. In October, he mentioned that if the economy is on the right track, it is appropriate to gradually increase interest rates. There is still a way to go when raising interest rates near the neutral interest rate level. If he makes hawkish remarks, the dollar index will be boosted, and gold may be under pressure, or to $1216/ounce; If its attitude is more dove like, gold is expected to rise again.
In addition, the Bank of Korea reported that the prospect of rising US interest rates will pose a threat to the economic stability of emerging economies, and will strengthen the monitoring of such risks. Interest rate hikes and a strong dollar have pushed up the volatility of emerging markets and triggered capital outflows, adding variables to the uncertainties related to trade disputes, A stronger dollar would increase the cost of servicing dollar denominated debt.
With the bumpy road of Brexit, gold is still a safe haven
Today, the gold market is still characterized by risk aversion and financial attributes, showing a certain degree of resilience. The dollar index has been in a sideways position since the dove talk of Federal Reserve officials fell on Friday, while gold retreated to $1218/ounce and then strengthened.
At 21:30 Beijing time, European Commission Economic Affairs Commissioner Moskovic will hold a press conference in Rome, or discuss the euro economy, Italian budget and other issues. Gold is expected to remain above 1210 dollars/ounce.
Analysts at Dansk Bank said that the probability of British Prime Minister Theresa May staying in office and the British Parliament approving her Brexit plan dropped significantly. The exchange rate remained volatile before the British Parliament voted on the Brexit agreement.
Analyst Hersh Shefrin believes that the probability of Britain holding a second referendum on Brexit is low. Although it is wise for Britain to hold a second referendum on Brexit, it still needs miracles to achieve this goal.
Technical analysis: gold test support 1216, later or up to 1227
The gold market showed resilience, stood above 1216, and was expected to rise to 1227.
