FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) - In the European market on Monday (November 19), the euro/dollar rose on a short-term basis, rebounding to 1.1438 at the highest. This also pushed the dollar index down to 96.29, the lowest level since November 8.
News: Under the combined effect of interest rate rise and strong data, the dollar index has risen nearly 10% this year from its low in April. However, the growing view that the US economic growth may have peaked has begun to erode the growth of the US dollar.
Last week, the US dollar recorded its biggest weekly decline in two months. After the dovish speech by US policymakers, investors became more cautious about the short-term outlook of the US dollar.
As the officials of the Federal Reserve released the signal that economic growth may peak in their latest speech, the US dollar suffered a sell-off, especially when the long position was approaching a high level for more than two years, the downward momentum is bound to be more intense!
Technical aspect: Daily, a foreign exchange information website, wrote that if the US dollar held steady at 96.35, it would resume its upward trend after falling back.
The article points out that the daily chart shows that the dollar has stabilized on the 96.35 line of the middle track of the Brin Belt after its continuous pullback, or will resume its upward trend. If the short-term line meets the expectation, it may point to 96.75 and 97.00 target levels.
If it falls below 96.35, pay attention to the supporting role of 96.00, which is just on the upward trend line since September. If it falls below 96.35, it may bring further downside risks.
The spot gold remained stable around 1220 today, because the comments of officials of the Federal Reserve (Fed) showed that they were cautious about global economic growth, prompting traders to reassess the pace of interest rate rise in the United States in the future, which led to the downturn of the dollar.
Benjamin Lu, a bulk commodity analyst at Huili Futures, said that the Federal Reserve may take a neutral position after 2018, and the global economic slowdown will increase investors' interest in the safe haven nature of gold when the Sino US trade dispute continues.
Technical analysts said that spot gold may end its current rebound below the resistance level of $1231 per ounce and resume the downward trend that began at $1243.28.
According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), hedge funds and money managers increased their net gold positions in the week ended November 13, the highest in five weeks.
From the four hour chart of gold price, if it is confirmed that the Fibonacci 50.0% retracement level is 1219.95, the upper resistance level is at Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level 1225.50, and the further resistance level is at Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level 1233.40.
Checked by: becky
