FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) News Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Paper Gold Paper silver On Friday (May 25), both Asian markets rose in the morning. International spot gold on Thursday (May 24) opened at $1293.40/ounce in the Asian market in the morning, with the lowest dip of $1292.60/ounce, the highest rise to $1306.54/ounce, and finally closed at $1304.20/ounce, up 12.32 dollars, or 0.95%. International spot silver on Thursday (May 24) opened at $16.42/ounce in the Asian market in the morning, with the lowest dip of $16.39/ounce, the highest rise to $16.69/ounce, and finally closed at $16.63/ounce, up $0.19, or 1.16%.
US President Trump announced on Thursday that he would cancel the June meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. The risk aversion in the market rose sharply, supporting gold. On Thursday, the US dollar fell back to its high and fell below the 94 mark. The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the week ending May 19, announced on the day, was 234000, higher than the previous value and expectations, hitting a seven week high, but still below the level of the healthy labor market. After the data was released, gold rose in the short term and gold futures trading volume surged. In addition, the monthly rate of the FHFA housing price index for March in the United States announced on Thursday was 0.1%, far lower than the previous value and the expected 0.6%; The Bloomberg consumer confidence index of the United States for the week ending May 20 was 55.2, higher than the previous value of 54.6 and the expected 54.6. The total sales of existing homes in the United States in April were 5.46 million, lower than the previous value of 5.6 million and the expected 5.57 million.
According to the analysis, the surge of gold on Thursday was mainly driven by the re ignited geopolitical crisis, and the cancellation of the special fund meeting triggered great uncertainty in the market. Some critics say that the United States will be more tough in the trade negotiations with China after the cancellation of the special fund meeting, which undoubtedly increases uncertainty for the world economy. However, some political scientists said that although Trump canceled the meeting in June, his comments did not completely exclude another potential meeting. Some analysts pointed out that this might be a negotiation strategy after Kim Jong un's recent comments.
In addition, analysts also pointed out that in addition to geopolitical factors, the Fed's view on inflation is also one of the help. The recent minutes of Federal Reserve officials and Federal Reserve meetings did not seem very worried about inflation, which gave investors more confidence. because Gold price It has reached the 1300 mark again, so it is more likely that the gold price will return to the 200 day average of 1316 dollars/ounce in the short term. If so, gold will regain its upward trend.
At present, from the technical point of view, if the gold can hold above 1300, the spot resistance level will be at 1310 and the 200 day moving average 1316; If the above resistance level can be broken, the gold price is expected to challenge the 1350 mark; In the downward direction, if the gold price cannot hold above 1300 and fall below this threshold again, the rebound will be short-lived, and the gold price will return to the downward channel, testing the previous low of $1281/ounce.
Fundamentals:
1. The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits for the week ending May 19, announced on Thursday (May 24), was 234000, higher than the previous value and expectations, hitting a seven week high, but still below the level of the healthy labor market.
2. On Thursday (May 24), the monthly rate of the FHFA housing price index in March in the United States was 0.1%, much lower than the previous value and the expected 0.6%; The total sales of existing homes in the United States in April were 5.46 million, lower than the previous value of 5.6 million and the expected 5.57 million.
3. On Wednesday (May 23), the annual total number of new housing sales in the United States in April was 662000, which was lower than the expected 680000. Before March, the value was revised down from 694000 to 672000, which was the highest in four months before the revision. In April, the number of new home sales and the median price both fell month on month, but the U.S. housing market is still healthy, and major assets such as the U.S. dollar have not changed much since the data was released
4. The total number of new housing starts in April in the United States announced on Wednesday (May 16) was 1.287 million, lower than the previous value of 131.9 and the expected 131; The total number of construction permits in the United States in April was 1.352 million, lower than the previous value of 137.9 and slightly higher than the expected 135. The commentary said that the total number of new housing starts in the United States fell sharply in April, and the total number of construction permits fell, which means that the housing market has not improved in the case of a shortage of land and skilled labor.
Fundamental negative factors:
1. The Bloomberg consumer confidence index for the week from the United States to May 20, published on Thursday (May 24), was 55.2, higher than the previous value of 54.6 and the expected 54.6.
2. On Wednesday (May 9), the initial PMI of Markit manufacturing industry in the United States in May was 56.6, higher than the previous 56.5 and the expected 56.5; The initial PMI of Markit service industry in the United States in May was 55.7, higher than the previous 54.6 and expected 54.9; Markit chief economist Williamson said that the PMI index of the United States in May showed that the economic growth was moving steadily towards 2.5% - 3%.
3. The more important data released on Tuesday (May 22) was that the Richmond Federal Reserve's manufacturing index in May was 16, much higher than the previous value and expectations.
4. The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the week ending May 12 announced on Thursday (May 17) was 222000, slightly higher than the previous value and expectations, and still at a low level since December 1973, indicating that the labor market has weakened, that is, the labor market has tightened,
Focus on Friday
20: 30 Monthly rate of durable goods orders in America in April
21:20 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell participated in the panel discussion of the 350th session of the Swedish Central Bank
22:00 The final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in May
23:45 In 2018, Bostick, the FOMC voting committee, Evans, the chairman of the Chicago Federal Reserve, and others attended the "eighth phase meeting: the decision-maker group"
01:00 Total number of oil wells drilled from the United States the next day to the week of May 25
At 06:08 Beijing time, ICBC paper gold rose 0.01% to 267.59 yuan/gram.
(Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Paper Gold, source: FX168 Financial Network) At 06:08 Beijing time, ICBC paper silver rose 0.23% to 3.418 yuan/gram.
(ICBC paper silver, source: FX168 financial website) Editor in charge: He Kailing
