1、 Basis for doing more:
1. Spring Festival goods preparation start
According to historical statistics, Spring Festival often occurs egg The price is high, and speculation is expected to be high. At the same time, the number of laying hens on hand this year is significantly lower than that of the same period over the years. Even though the number of laying hens on hand has rebounded slightly since November, compared with the peak demand of the whole year, the increased capacity is insufficient to make up for the huge demand potential.
2. Low number of laying hens
According to Zhihua's data, the total number of laying hens on hand in October 2018 was 1.268 billion. It decreased by 2.33% month on month and 9.55% year on year. The number of laying hens on hand in October decreased month on month compared with that in September. In the second half of the year, the number of laying hens on hand was always low and difficult to rise. The price of eggs may rise after the opening of the Spring Festival stock in the later period, due to the small amount of chicken in summer and the small number of newly increased production.
3. High feed cost
In the compound feed for laying hens Corn The proportion of corn added is the highest, about 65%. The price of corn has been rising since this year. The price of compound feed for laying hens has been rising since October. The price of eggs has also remained strong due to cost factors.
It can be seen that the current inventory is at a low level and the supply side has strong support; Downstream demand, the Spring Festival stock is open, and with the spread of African swine fever, the substitution of eggs for pork is also increasing, and the egg price still has room to rise.
2、 Detailed operation plan
1. Opening price
When the contract price of egg futures jd1905 is around 3740 yuan/ton, choose an opportunity to establish more than 200 orders;
2. Stop profit and stop loss
(1) When the futures price reaches around 3820, all positions will be closed to profit;
(2) When the futures price reaches around 3650, all positions will be stopped.
3. Risk control
(1) If all positions are completed and the margin is less than 20%, the position can be controlled within a reasonable range.
(2) If the scheme ends in failure, the maximum loss is about 180000 yuan, which can effectively control the retreat.
Chang'an Futures Team 1
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Editor in charge: Song Peng
