Guohai Liangshi Futures: Double Focus Short term or Top to Bottom

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Overview of ideas

Shandong coal mine starts to resume production, and coal mine commencement may rise. Mongolia coal customs clearance began to rise, and the overall supply side improved. As the current futures contracts in the near month have fully reflected the expected premium of coal shortage, and there is the suppression of mixed coal warehouse receipts, the possibility of short-term peak increases. coke The profits are high, and the steel mill's inventory is at a high level at present, so the steel mill's bargaining power becomes stronger, and the environmental protection production restriction policy begins to relax. It is expected that the demand will start to shrink and the supply will be more relaxed later.

1、 Policy recommendations

Policy: coking coal Short every high

Logic: 1. Relaxation of supply; 2. Coal mine depots may increase; 3. There is premium in the monthly contract.

Note: short every high

Strategy: short coke at every high

Logic: 1. The inventory structure reduces the bargaining power of the coking plant; 2. The profit of coking plant is on the high side; 3. Limited production or less than expected.

Note: short every high

2、 Logic

（1） Coke basic surface

Sample of 100 independent coke enterprises nationwide: capacity utilization rate was 78.62%, up 0.57%; The average daily output was 381300 tons, increasing by 2700 tons; The coke inventory is 203300 tons, less 7200 tons; On the whole, although the production has been limited in the heating season, the current capacity utilization rate has not been effectively reduced, which is far from the expected effective capacity reduction. At the same time, the profit of coking plant is also significantly higher than that of 2016 and 2017. Therefore, the kinetic energy of coking plant production may be further increased.

Figure 1. Average capacity utilization rate of coke oven

Data source: wind, Guohai Liangshi Futures Research

Figure 2. Profit of Coking Plant

Data source: wind, Guohai Liangshi Futures Research

Figure 3. Available Days of Coke Stock in Steel Plant

Data source: wind, Guohai Liangshi Futures Research

Figure 4. Steel Plant Coke Inventory

Data source: wind, Guohai Liangshi Futures Research

At present, the coke stock of the steel plant is relatively sufficient after the early replenishment, and the number of available days is the highest in the same period over the years. It is relatively unlikely that a large amount of stock replenishment will be carried out again in the short term, considering the profit and operating rate of the current coking plant. Although the inventory of coking plants is low at present, the bargaining power of coking enterprises will be significantly reduced.

Figure 5 Coke Inventory of Coking Plant

Data source: Mysteel, Guohai Liangshi Futures Research

Figure 6. Port Coke Inventory

Data source: wind, Guohai Liangshi Futures Research

At present, the impact of the low level inventory of the coking plant on the price has decreased marginally due to the lower than expected production limit. At the same time, traders are also cautious in purchasing. Therefore, the probability of the inventory of coking plants rising is increasing, and the possibility of steel plants raising and lowering the coke price is also gradually increasing.

（2） Basic plane of coking coal

A sample of 100 independent coking enterprises nationwide: the total inventory of coking coal was 8.3816 million tons, an increase of 211200 tons, and the average usable days was 16.53 days, an increase of 0.30 days. The coking coal inventory of the steel plant is the same as that of the same period in 2017, but the national coking coal price is significantly higher than that of the same period in 2017 due to the expectation of production restriction and reduction.

Figure 7. Average days available for coking coal inventory in steel plant

Data source: wind, Guohai Liangshi Futures Research

Figure 8. Coking coal inventory of steel plant

Data source: wind, Guohai Liangshi Futures Research

Figure 9. Available Days of Coking Coal in Coking Plant

Data source: wind, Guohai Liangshi Futures Research

Figure 10. Coking coal port inventory

Data source: wind, Guohai Liangshi Futures Research

Since the "National Day" holiday, the coking plant has actively replenished its inventory, which has been significantly higher than that of the same period in 2017. Although the port inventory has declined, it is also higher than that of the same period in 2017.

Figure 11. Coal mine coking coal inventory

Data source: wind, Guohai Liangshi Futures Research

With the liberalization of Mongolian coal import and the resumption of production of Shandong coal mines, the approximate rate of coal mine inventory has stopped falling and recovered.

Guohai Liangshi Futures Team 1

Editor in charge: Song Peng