1、 Core ideas
Entering the fourth quarter, egg Spot prices remain high, the recovery of laying hens stock is not as obvious as expected, and the supply side remains tight. At the same time, the Spring Festival stock is open, and seasonal growth is still possible.
2、 Factor analysis
1. Spring Festival goods preparation start
According to historical statistical data, the Spring Festival tends to have a high price of eggs, with high speculation expectations. At the same time, the number of laying hens on hand this year is significantly lower than that of the same period over the years. Even though the number of laying hens on hand has rebounded slightly since November, compared with the peak demand of the whole year, the increased capacity is insufficient to make up for the huge demand potential.
2. Low number of laying hens
According to Zhihua's data, the total number of laying hens on hand in October 2018 was 1.268 billion. It decreased by 2.33% month on month and 9.55% year on year. The number of laying hens on hand in October decreased month on month compared with that in September. In the second half of the year, the number of laying hens on hand was always low and difficult to rise. The price of eggs may rise after the opening of the Spring Festival stock in the later period, due to the small amount of chicken in summer and the small number of newly increased production.
3. High feed cost
In the compound feed for laying hens Corn The proportion of corn added is the highest, about 65%. The price of corn has been rising since this year. The price of compound feed for laying hens has been rising since October. The price of eggs has also remained strong due to cost factors.
It can be seen that the current inventory is at a low level and the supply side has strong support; Downstream demand, the Spring Festival stock is open, and with the spread of African swine fever, the substitution of eggs for pork is also increasing, and the egg price still has room to rise.
3、 Detailed operation plan
1. Opening price
(1) When the contract price of egg futures jd1901 is around 4270 yuan/ton, choose opportunities to build 100 positions;
(2) When the contract price of egg futures jd1901 is around 4210 yuan/ton, 200 additional positions will be added.
If all positions are completed, the average position price is around 4230.
2. Stop surplus
(1) When the futures price reaches around 4400, 80% of the position will be closed;
(2) When the futures price reaches around 4450, the surplus of 20% of the remaining positions will be stopped.
3. Stop loss
If the forward price moves in the adverse direction, the stop loss point is around 4080.
4. Risk control
(1) If all positions are completed, the margin will be about 25%, which can control the position within a reasonable range.
(2) If the scheme ends in failure, the maximum loss is about 450000, which can effectively control the retreat.
Chang'an Futures Team 1
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Editor in charge: Song Peng
