In late July, coke The market hype of environmental protection production restriction has seen a sharp rise. Later, it was found that the environmental protection production restriction in the heating season this year was more relaxed than expected. It is prohibited to adopt a one size fits all approach. The environmental protection requirements are developing in the direction of "one policy for one city, one policy for one factory", and the coke price is falling rapidly. At present, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants with different capacities in China is at the highest level in the year:>2 million tons of capacity utilization rate is 79.04, 76.41 in the same period last year; The utilization rate of production capacity of 1-2 million tons was 7.34, 64.56 in the same period last year< The capacity utilization rate of 2 million tons was 78.54, up from 67.95 in the same period last year.
As of November 2, the total coke inventory of coking enterprises was 203300 tons, which was at a low level in two years; The coke inventory of 110 sample steel plants in China totals 4.283 million tons; The average available days of coke stock in domestic large and medium-sized steel plants is 8.6 days, with a low point of 7.7 days in the year.
On November 6, Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke arrived at the factory price of 2615 yuan/ton, the closing price of 1901 coke contract was 2408.5 yuan/ton, the closing price of 1905 coke contract was 2187.5 yuan/ton, and the closing price of 1909 coke contract was 2117.5 yuan/ton, which was in a discount structure and deep discount, fully reflecting the pessimistic expectation of the market for economic growth decline and trade war. On October 20, the average daily output of crude steel of key enterprises was 1.9511 million tons, which was at a high level in the year. The supply side reform suppressed supply, and the output fluctuation was reduced, and the supply and demand of coke was tight and balanced.
It is expected that coke prices will remain volatile in the medium term.
Hongta Futures Team 2
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