abstract
Current domestic Soybean meal There is an obvious sign of inventory decline, and merchants are considering increasing procurement for winter stock, resulting in the high rise of feed soybean meal. In the fourth quarter, we will pay close attention to the progress of this round of negotiations between China and the United States, the receipt of US soybeans, downstream consumer demand and other news, which will play a key role in guiding the soybean meal market.
Operationally, the high position of soybean meal M1901 contract fluctuated and fell back, and the lower moving average is expected to get support, focusing on short-term multi trial opportunities.
1、 Industrial situation
1. Spot price of soybean meal
As of October 18, the average price of soybean meal in the national spot market was 3692 yuan/ton. Under the pressure of escalating trade war, domestic soybean meal spot prices kept rising, and the weekly average price rose basically within 50 yuan/ton month on month.
Figure 1: National average spot price of soybean meal
2. Port inventory
According to the latest statistics of China Customs, in September 2018, China soybean The import volume was 8.012 million tons and 70.08 million tons from January to September. 2% less than the same period last year. As of October 18, the soybean port inventory was about 7.09 million tons.
Figure 2: Port soybean stock
3. Soybean meal inventory
According to the monitoring data, the spot stock of soybean meal has declined for four consecutive weeks. The pressure on the soybean meal stock of the oil factory before has dropped significantly. At present, the factory has a strong mentality to support the meal. As of October 14, the national soybean meal inventory was about 730000 tons.
Figure 3: National Soybean Meal Inventory
4. Breeding market
As of October 19, the average price of pigs in 22 provinces and cities across the country was 13.68 yuan/kg. At present, the market demand is still in a period of periodic weakness. However, due to the frequent epidemic, farmers in the northern region have high enthusiasm for marketing, and the market supply exceeds demand, so the price of pigs has fallen; The demand in the southern region is also relatively general, but the supply is slightly tight, and the pig price mainly increases slightly.
Figure 4: Average price of pigs in 22 provinces and cities
According to the pig inventory information of 400 monitoring counties in September 2018 released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national pig inventory in September 2018 increased rather than decreased, with a month on month increase of 0.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%; However, the number of breeding sows on hand continued to decline, down 0.3% month on month and 4.8% year on year.
Figure 5: Pig stock and reproductive sows stock
2、 Technical analysis
The above figure is the daily trend chart of Dalian soybean meal M1901 contract. At present, the trend is high and falling. Pay attention to the support near the 20 day moving average below. It is expected that the market is expected to continue to rise after the gap is covered on October 8.
3、 Operation strategy
At present, there are obvious signs of decline in domestic soybean meal inventory, and businesses are considering increasing procurement for winter stock, resulting in the high rise of feed soybean meal. In the fourth quarter, we will pay close attention to the progress of this round of negotiations between China and the United States, the receipt of US soybeans, downstream consumer demand and other news, which will play a key role in guiding the soybean meal market.
Operationally, the high position of soybean meal M1901 contract fluctuated and fell back, and the lower moving average is expected to get support, focusing on short-term multi trial opportunities.
Operating variety: soybean meal M1901 contract
Warehouse building direction: many
Warehouse building range: 3300-3500 yuan/ton
Target: 3700-3800 yuan/ton
Warehouse building ratio: 10% - 80%
Number of warehouse building hands: 200-1500
Stop loss range: 3100-3200 yuan/ton
Zhongzhou Futures Team 2
Sina statement: The purpose of posting this article on Sina.com is to convey more information, which does not mean to agree with its views or confirm its description. The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
Editor in charge: Song Peng
