Market situation: Shanghai International Energy Trading Center SC1812 contract opened at 496.8 yuan/barrel and closed at 484.4 yuan/barrel, down 7.2 yuan/barrel or 1.42% from the previous trading day. The trading volume fell back to 274046 hands and the position decreased by 876 hands to 30358 hands.
Macro information: 1. On Tuesday (November 13), the People's Bank of China announced that the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.9629, down 153 basis points from the previous trading day.
Industry chain information: 1. Russian Energy Minister Novak told reporters that Russia's overall crude oil production in November will be slightly lower than that in October. 2. OPEC Secretary General Balkin expressed confidence in the continued cooperation of OPEC+; OPEC contacted Nigeria and Libya on the output agreement; Be open to discussions with non OPEC countries at the Vienna headquarters; It is estimated that the growth rate of oil demand in 2019 will be lower than 1.5~1.6 million barrels/day. 3. President Trump of the United States said on Twitter that he hoped Saudi Arabia and OPEC would not cut production again. According to the supply situation, the oil price should be much lower than the current level.
Spot price: the spot price of Oman crude oil on November 12 was 71.1 dollars/barrel, up 1.5 dollars/barrel from the previous day (493.9 yuan/barrel at the RMB exchange rate of that day); The spot price of Shengli crude oil was 63.4 dollars/barrel, up 1.2 dollars/barrel from the previous day. The number of futures warehouse receipts in the designated delivery warehouse of Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center was 801000 barrels, which was the same as the previous transaction.
Summary of views: The international crude oil futures price showed a volatile downward trend, and the Asian market continued to decline. The January futures price of Brent crude oil was reported to $69.4 per barrel, The December futures price of WTI crude oil was reported to the front line of $59.2 per barrel. The price difference between Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil was about $10.2 per barrel. The futures price of Shanghai crude oil 1812 contract fell, rising by $0.2 per barrel compared with Brent crude oil, and being discounted by about $1.5 per barrel compared with Oman crude oil spot on the 12th. The policy statement of the Federal Reserve strengthened the expectation of interest rate increase in December, the fear of Italy's budget crisis rose, and the dollar index rose sharply, putting pressure on the external crude oil; The exemption measures granted by the United States to some regions have weakened the sanctions against Iran, and the US crude oil production has once again hit a new high. The increased supply worries have suppressed the market; OPEC discussed the issue of production reduction in 2019, which to some extent limited the adjustment space of oil prices, but Trump Twitter criticized that he hoped Saudi Arabia and OPEC would not reduce production again, which hindered the rebound of oil prices and fell back again; Pay attention to the monthly reports of OPEC and IEA. Technically, the SC1812 contract was blocked and fell back. The futures price test was supported by 480 yuan/barrel, and the upper part was under the pressure of 500 yuan/barrel. It is expected that the futures price of Shanghai crude oil will show a trend of shock consolidation. Operationally, short-term transactions of 480-505 yuan/barrel are dominated.
Sina statement: The purpose of posting this article on Sina.com is to convey more information, which does not mean to agree with its views or confirm its description. The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
Editor in charge: Zhang Yao
