Market review:
On Tuesday (November 6), treasury bond futures fluctuated in a narrow range for most of the day and rose in the late afternoon. The main force of 10-year treasury bond futures T1812 rose 0.22% to close at 95.810 yuan, with 4469 positions reduced and 41438 transactions closed; TF1812, the main force of five-year treasury bond futures, rose 0.18% to close at 98.375 yuan, with 1355 positions reduced and 5909 transactions closed; TS1812, the main force of two-year treasury bond futures, rose 0.14% to close at 99.780, with 277 positions reduced and 729 transactions closed.
Viewpoint:
In the last few days of last week, we have noticed that the main influencing factors of treasury bond futures are gradually changing, from risk aversion demand to fundamental factors. At present, the fundamentals of treasury bond futures are more inclined to support the upward trend of treasury bond futures. First, China's economy has obvious downward pressure and needs to be boosted by low interest rates. Second, compared with local bonds and credit bonds, the investment value of treasury bonds has increased relatively. Third, the supply of government bonds is expected to decline in November, and the market capital is expected to be relatively loose. Technically, the trading volume of treasury bond futures in the last three trading days has remained high, but the reduction of positions has been strong, indicating that empty orders appeared in the early stage. This month's bonds are expected to rise, but the strength of the rise will be affected by A-shares. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the stock market situation and the trend of the exchange rate.
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Editor in charge: Zhang Yao
