The average import price of iron ore in the four quarters of 2008, 2011 and 2012 is higher than that in the first three quarters, except that the average import price of iron ore in the four quarters of 2008, 2011 and 2012 is lower than that in the first three quarters.

　　 Analysis and prospect of China's iron ore market in the fourth quarter

● The national macro-control policy will adhere to the overall plan of "stabilizing growth, adjusting structure and promoting reform". China's economic growth rate is expected to continue to rise in the fourth quarter steel products The market demand will be better than that in the first half of the year.

● Many factors support the high price of iron ore.

● The demand for winter storage of northern steel mills is released, and China's iron ore import will continue to maintain a high level.

● The possibility of US dollar trend appreciation and depreciation is not high, and the probability of exchange rate appreciation of Australian dollar against US dollar is high.

● At the current steel market price level, the iron ore import price does not meet the conditions for a sharp decline, and the market's expectation for the bottom of the iron ore price has increased. It is estimated that the main operating range of the iron ore import price in the whole year is 110-150 dollars/ton, and the range in the fourth quarter is 125-150 dollars/ton.

In the next two to three years, the global iron ore market will become the normal oversupply, and the overall price will fall, but in the case of high iron ore mining costs in China, the iron ore price will not fall significantly.

It is estimated that China's iron ore import volume will be about 800 million tons in 2013, the operating range of the annual iron ore import price (62%) will be $110-150/ton, and the main operating range in the fourth quarter will be $120-140/ton.

　　 Main factors affecting iron ore price

1. Cost factors

The cost of iron ore is affected by a series of factors, such as the price of mining equipment, labor costs, water and electricity prices required for mining, relevant taxes, and shipping costs, which will affect the landed cost of iron ore, thus affecting the ore market price.

2. Policy factors

Iron ore is an international bulk trade commodity, and its price is affected by various policy factors, such as the import and export policies of the country of origin, the tariff policies of the importing country, and the steel industry development policies of the consuming country.

3. Output change

The increase and decrease of iron ore production capacity and output have an impact on the market price. When mining enterprises stop production or reduce production due to equipment maintenance, natural conditions and other reasons, iron ore prices will also change accordingly.

4. International trade price

China's iron ore import is highly dependent, and the international ore price is strongly linked with the domestic price. The changes in the international market price will be transmitted to the domestic market, thus affecting the iron ore market price.

5. Downstream demand changes

The market price of iron ore will also fluctuate with the change of downstream demand. When the downstream consumption increases and the supply is insufficient, the market price will rise. When the downstream consumption weakens and the upstream supply is sufficient, the market price will fall.

6. Price of alternative products

When the market price of iron ore is high and the price of substitute products such as scrap steel is relatively low, it will affect the price decline.

7. Changes in product inventory

The change of inventory will also affect the market price of iron ore. For example, if the regional inventory increases and traders are willing to ship, the price will fall; The shortage of regional inventory and traders' hoarding will drive prices higher.

8. Macroeconomic situation

The healthy and rapid development of macro-economy has a strong supporting and pulling effect on the iron ore market. Macroeconomy mainly affects the demand of downstream industries, and then affects the changes of iron ore market. In other words, macroeconomic performance is a barometer of iron ore market demand, which has an important impact on its price changes. When the macroeconomic operation is good, the construction industry, automobile manufacturing industry and other related industries have strong demand for steel, which will correspondingly drive the demand for iron ore, Support its price to operate at a high level.