Supply and demand of iron ore in China and the world

15:00, October 12, 2013    Sina Finance micro-blog

   World iron ore production and consumption

1. World iron ore production

(1) The world's iron ore output is on the rise as a whole

After 2000, the rapid development of steel industry in the world, especially in Asia, has led to a substantial increase in the world's iron ore consumption, which in turn has promoted the global production of iron ore. During the ten years from 2002 to 2011, the overall output showed an upward trend, increasing by 1.05 billion tons, with an average annual growth of about 105 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 8.49%. Especially from 2003 to 2007, the average annual growth rate exceeded 10%. In 2011, the global iron ore output was 2.04 billion tons.

(2) The world's iron ore production is relatively concentrated

South America, Asia and Oceania are the main sources of global iron ore production in recent years. The main iron ore producers in these regions are Brazil, China, India, Australia, etc. From 2002 to 2011, the annual growth of iron ore in Australia and China (raw ore production) exceeded 20 million tons, while that in Brazil and India exceeded 10 million tons. The total annual growth of the four countries exceeded 90% of the world. It can be seen that global iron ore production is relatively concentrated.

Table 1 Production of Top 10 Iron Ore Production Countries in the World Except China from 2002 to 2011

(Unit: 10000 tons)

  two thousand and two two thousand and three two thousand and four two thousand and five two thousand and six two thousand and seven two thousand and eight two thousand and nine two thousand and ten two thousand and eleven
Brazil twenty-two thousand five hundred and ten twenty-four thousand five hundred and sixty twenty-seven thousand and fifty-two twenty-nine thousand two hundred and forty thirty-one thousand eight hundred and sixty-three thirty-three thousand six hundred and fifty-three thirty-four thousand and six hundred thirty thousand and five hundred thirty-seven thousand and two hundred thirty-nine thousand and one hundred
Australia eighteen thousand seven hundred and twenty-two twenty-one thousand and two hundred twenty-three thousand four hundred and seventy twenty-five thousand seven hundred and fifty-three twenty-seven thousand five hundred and nine twenty-nine thousand nine hundred and six thirty-four thousand nine hundred and eighty thirty-nine thousand three hundred and ninety forty-three thousand two hundred and eighty forty-eight thousand seven hundred and ninety
India eight thousand six hundred and forty nine thousand nine hundred and ten twelve thousand and sixty fourteen thousand two hundred and seventy-one eighteen thousand and ninety-two twenty thousand six hundred and ninety-four twenty-two thousand and three hundred twenty-one thousand eight hundred and sixty twenty-one thousand and two hundred nineteen thousand and six hundred
Russia eight thousand four hundred and thirty-five nine thousand one hundred and thirty-seven nine thousand six hundred and ninety-eight nine thousand six hundred and seventy-six ten thousand three hundred and ninety ten thousand four hundred and ninety-five nine thousand nine hundred and twenty-seven nine thousand two hundred and five nine thousand nine hundred and six ten thousand three hundred and eighty
Ukraine five thousand eight hundred and ninety six thousand two hundred and fifty six thousand five hundred and fifty-four six thousand eight hundred and fifty-seven seven thousand three hundred and ten seven thousand seven hundred and forty-three seven thousand one hundred and eighty-one six thousand five hundred and eighty-three seven thousand nine hundred and seventeen eight thousand one hundred and nineteen
U.S.A five thousand one hundred and fifty four thousand eight hundred and forty-eight five thousand four hundred and seventy five thousand four hundred and thirty five thousand two hundred and ninety five thousand two hundred and forty five thousand three hundred and sixty two thousand six hundred and fifty four thousand nine hundred and fifty five thousand three hundred and sixty
South Africa three thousand six hundred and forty-eight three thousand eight hundred and nine three thousand nine hundred and twenty-seven three thousand nine hundred and fifty-four four thousand one hundred and thirty-three four thousand one hundred and fifty-six four thousand and nine hundred five thousand five hundred and forty five thousand six hundred and ninety five thousand two hundred and ninety
Canada three thousand and ninety three thousand three hundred and thirty-two two thousand eight hundred and twenty-six three thousand and thirteen three thousand four hundred and ninety-seven three thousand four hundred and ten three thousand two hundred and ten three thousand and three hundred three thousand seven hundred and fifty three thousand seven hundred and ten
Sweden two thousand and twenty-eight two thousand one hundred and fifty two thousand two hundred and twenty-seven two thousand three hundred and twenty-six two thousand three hundred and thirty two thousand four hundred and seventy-one two thousand three hundred and eighty one thousand seven hundred and seventy two thousand five hundred and thirty two thousand six hundred and ten
Venezuela two thousand and eighty-nine one thousand nine hundred and twenty two thousand and two two thousand one hundred and eighteen two thousand two hundred and ten two thousand and sixty-five two thousand one hundred and fifty one thousand four hundred and ninety one thousand and four hundred one thousand and six hundred
total eighty thousand two hundred and two eighty-seven thousand one hundred and sixteen ninety-five thousand two hundred and eighty-six one hundred and two thousand six hundred and thirty-eight one hundred and twelve thousand six hundred and twenty-four one hundred and nineteen thousand eight hundred and thirty-three one hundred and twenty-six thousand nine hundred and eighty-eight one hundred and twenty-six thousand one hundred and sixty-eight one hundred and thirty-seven thousand eight hundred and twenty-three one hundred and forty-four thousand five hundred and fifty-nine
Global ninety-eight thousand six hundred and fourteen one hundred and fifteen thousand nine hundred and twenty-three one hundred and twenty-five thousand two hundred and five one hundred and forty thousand and sixty-four one hundred and fifty-seven thousand six hundred and seventy-four one hundred and sixty-nine thousand nine hundred and fourteen one hundred and sixty-nine thousand two hundred and sixty-seven one hundred and fifty-nine thousand four hundred and eighty-six one hundred and eighty-six thousand eight hundred and ninety two hundred and four thousand two hundred and fifteen
Proportion of ten countries eighty-one point three three seventy-five point one five seventy-six point one zero seventy-three point two eight seventy-one point four three seventy point five three seventy-five point zero two seventy-nine point one one seventy-three point seven four seventy point seven nine

(Source: IISI, World Steel Yearbook)

(3) The supply advantages of the three major mines are obvious

The world's three largest iron ore producers are Rio Tinto of Australia, BHP Billiton and Vale of Brazil. In 2012, the three largest iron ore producers produced 680 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 2.4% year on year. Of which, the value was 320 million tons, down 0.84% year on year; BHP Billiton's 161 million tons, up 7.7% year on year; Rio Tinto was 199 million tons, up 2.4% year on year.

Table 2 Iron ore output of three major manufacturers from 2004 to 2009 (unit: 10000 tons)

country two thousand and four two thousand and five two thousand and six two thousand and seven two thousand and eight two thousand and nine two thousand and ten two thousand and eleven two thousand and twelve
VALE twenty-one thousand one hundred and twenty-seven twenty-three thousand three hundred and eighty-five twenty-six thousand four hundred and fifteen twenty-nine thousand five hundred and ninety-three twenty-nine thousand three hundred and thirty-seven twenty-two thousand nine hundred and thirty-four thirty thousand nine hundred and forty-six thirty-two thousand two hundred and sixty thirty-one thousand nine hundred and ninety
BHP eight thousand four hundred and twenty-two nine thousand six hundred and seventy-five nine thousand seven hundred and seven nine thousand nine hundred and forty-two eleven thousand two hundred and twenty-six twelve thousand five hundred and eleven twelve thousand eight hundred and six fourteen thousand nine hundred and forty sixteen thousand and eighty
RIO ten thousand seven hundred and eighty twelve thousand four hundred and fifty thirteen thousand two hundred and eighty fourteen thousand four hundred and seventy fifteen thousand three hundred and forty seventeen thousand one hundred and fifty eighteen thousand four hundred and sixty-three nineteen thousand one hundred and seventy-seven nineteen thousand and nine hundred
total forty thousand three hundred and thirty-two forty-five thousand five hundred and sixteen forty-nine thousand four hundred and seven fifty-four thousand and two fifty-five thousand nine hundred and six fifty-two thousand five hundred and ninety-five sixty-two thousand two hundred and fifteen sixty-six thousand three hundred and seventy-seven sixty-seven thousand nine hundred and seventy
Proportion in global output (%) 34% 35% 29% 31% 31% 33% 33% 32.5% 36%

(Data source: the annual reports published by each company)

2. World iron ore consumption

(1) World iron ore consumption is increasing year by year

During 2001-2012, global iron ore consumption increased by 88.0%, with an average annual growth rate of 5.9%, of which China's iron ore consumption increased by about 4.2 times, with an average annual growth rate of 13.8%; India's iron ore consumption growth was also very rapid before 2008, with an average growth rate of nearly 8%, but its consumption growth almost stagnated after 2009. From 2001 to 2012, iron ore consumption in nine countries except China grew slowly, with an average annual growth rate of only 0.96% in the past five years; The average annual growth rate of iron ore consumption in countries other than China is 0.5%.

(2) Chinese demand is the main driving force

From 2000 to 2011, the changes in the proportion of apparent iron ore consumption in the world of the top ten countries in terms of pig iron production are shown in the figure below. It can be seen that China jumped 35.3 percentage points to 53.6% in 2010; Japan, the United States and Russia declined by 6.3%, 5.5% and 4.1% respectively,; Germany dropped from 5.0% to 2.4%, down 2.6%, Ukraine dropped 1.8%, South Korea dropped slightly, about 1 percentage point, while India's consumption in total consumption rose slightly, up 2.2%.

(3) The sources of imports vary from country to country

The source of iron ore varies from country to country. More than 99% of Japanese iron ore depends on imports. 61% of the iron ore imported by Japan comes from Australia, 21% from Brazil, 8% from India, and 4% from South Africa. South Korea, Germany and Italy also rely almost 100% on imports of iron ore, and these four countries mainly obtain iron ore from Brazil and Australia; About 50% of iron ore in the United States depends on imports, mainly from Australia, Brazil, India, South Africa, Venezuela and other countries; Russia, Ukraine, India and Brazil are mainly from their own countries.

In 2012, 37.3% of the iron ore consumed in China was supplied by China, and 62.7% was imported. Of the iron ores imported by China in that year, 47.2% came from Australia, 22.1% from Brazil, 4.4% from India, and 5.4% from South Africa.

   Iron ore production and consumption in China

1. Iron ore production in China

(1) Iron ore production is increasing

In recent years, with the rapid development of China's steel industry, the demand for iron ore has increased significantly, driving the continuous growth of China's iron ore output.

In 2001, China's raw ore output was 218 million tons, a decrease of 2.5% over 2000, and then increased year by year. By 2005, China's raw iron ore output reached 420 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 35.6%, almost double the output of 2001. During the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" period, the annual average growth rate of iron ore production exceeded 20%, and in 2012, the original mineral quantity of iron ore reached 1.31 billion tons.

China's raw iron ore output from 2000 to 2012

    

(Source: China Metallurgical Mining Enterprises Association)

(2) The Bohai Rim region has the largest output

In terms of regions, the Bohai Rim region has the largest output of raw iron ore, 720 million tons, which is close to 55% of the total output of the country. If Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, which are close to the Bohai Rim region, are considered, the output of this region in the country will exceed 60%. The proportion of output in the southwest and other regions in North China is also high, both exceeding 10%, while the output in the Yangtze River Delta and coastal areas in South China is low, less than 50 million tons, accounting for less than 3.5% of the total output of the country.

Table 3 Details of China's regional iron ore raw ore output in 2012

region Output (100 million tons) Proportion in the whole country (%)
Bohai Rim seven point two zero fifty-four point nine six
Yangtze River Delta zero point four six three point four nine
South China coastal area zero point four four three point three eight
Other regions in North China one point seven four fourteen point zero six
Other regions in south central China zero point six seven five point one two
Southwest China one point nine zero fourteen point five one
Northwest China zero point five eight four point four zero

(Data source: China Iron and Steel Industry Association)

(3) Iron ore production area is relatively concentrated

In terms of provinces, except Tianjin, Shanghai, Ningxia and Tibet, which are restricted by resources and have no iron ore mining, other regions have production. Among them, Hebei and Sichuan have a large output of 520 million tons and 160 million tons respectively. In addition, the output of Liaoning, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia is also large, with 150 million tons, 81.3 million tons and 80.49 million tons respectively. The output of iron ore in Hebei, Liaoning, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia and Shanxi accounts for about 77% of China's total output. As shown in the figure, Hebei Province has the largest proportion of output, reaching 40%; The second is Sichuan, 12.4%; Liaoning, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia accounted for 11.8%, 6.2% and 6.1% respectively.

From the proportion over the years, Hebei and Liaoning have a high output, accounting for more than 50% of the total output. The output of iron ore in Sichuan has increased rapidly in the past five years. The proportion of other provinces and cities has not changed much. China's iron ore production regions are relatively concentrated.

(4) Low concentration of iron ore production in China

Most iron ore producers in China are small mining enterprises, and the concentration of iron ore production is low. According to the statistics of China Metallurgical and Mining Enterprises Association, as of December 2011, there were 1596 mining enterprises under unified management in China. The total output of the top ten iron ore producers is less than 18% of the total output. All the ten iron ore producers are state-owned enterprises.

Table 4 Top 10 Iron Ore Producers in China in 2010 (Unit: million tons)

  province Raw ore output Concentrate production
Anshan Iron&Steel Liaoning forty-five point six fifteen point six
Hebei Iron&Steel Hebei twenty-six point four five point seven
Baotou Steel Inner Mongolia twenty-four point five eight point five
Pangang Group Sichuan twenty point nine seven point nine
Taiyuan Iron&Steel Shanxi nineteen point two five point nine
Benxi Steel Liaoning seventeen point seven six point five
Shougang Corporation Hebei thirteen four point six
Masteel Group Anhui nine point five two point four
Sichuan Chuanwei Steel Sichuan eight point five two
Baosteel Group Shanghai seven point five four
total   one hundred and ninety-two point eight sixty-three point one
Proportion in the national total (%)   18.3% 17.1%

(Data source: CISA)

2. Iron ore consumption in China

(1) The demand for iron ore in China is increasing year by year

Iron and steel enterprises are the final consumers of iron ore, and the distribution of iron and steel production capacity determines the pattern of iron ore consumption. According to the situation over the years, the demand for iron ore in China has gradually increased. In 2008, China's pig iron output was 469 million tons, and the demand for iron ore was about 750 million tons. By 2009, the output of pig iron had risen to 544 million tons, and the demand for iron ore was about 870 million tons, up 15.9% year on year. China's iron ore production has also been rising with the increase in consumption. However, after entering 2010, the growth rate of iron ore consumption in China has slowed down significantly. On the one hand, the limited steel production capacity has compressed the demand for iron ore; On the other hand, the rising price of iron ore has also led to increased risk of stockpiling and speculation of iron ore, which has curbed speculative demand.

Trend of China's iron ore demand from 2001 to 2012

    

(Source: China Metallurgical Mining Enterprises Association)

(2) China's iron ore demand is relatively concentrated

In terms of pig iron output, Hebei Province has a large pig iron output. In 2012, the iron and steel output of Hebei Province exceeded 100 million tons, and the pig iron output of Shandong, Liaoning and Jiangsu Province exceeded 50 million tons in the past two years. These provinces are the main demand provinces for iron ore.

In terms of the proportion of provinces and cities, the proportion of pig iron output in Hebei, Shandong, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Shanxi, Hubei, and Henan has been basically stable in the past five years, with little change in the proportion. The total proportion of other provinces and cities has decreased by 1%. From the overall proportion, the top seven provinces and cities in pig iron production accounted for about 64% of the total, indicating that China's iron ore demand is also relatively concentrated.

(3) Iron ore demand is concentrated in the Bohai Rim region

From the regional perspective, the output of pig iron in the Bohai Rim region is 296 million tons, accounting for 45.1% of the total national output; The output of pig iron in the Yangtze River Delta region is close to 100 million tons, accounting for 16.1% of the total output, ranking second, but only about 1/3 of that in the Bohai Rim region; Other regions in North China and Central South China also account for more than 10% of the total. In the northwest, coastal areas in South China and southwest regions, the pig iron output is low, less than 10%. In terms of demand regions, the demand for iron ore is also concentrated in the Bohai Rim region.

Table 5 Pig Iron Output in Different Regions of China in 2012

region Output (100 million tons) Proportion in the whole country (%)
Bohai Rim two point nine six forty-five point zero seven
Yangtze River Delta one point zero six 16.12 
South China coastal area zero point two nine 4.36 
Other regions in North China zero point seven zero ten point six four
Other regions in south central China zero point eight three twelve point five five
Southwest China zero point four three six point five seven
Northwest China zero point three one four point seven zero

(Data source: Steel House)

(4) Significant increase in output of key steel plants

As can be seen from the figure below, during the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" period, the output of the top ten steel enterprises in China has significantly increased in the proportion of total output, from less than 35% in 2006 to 48.26% in 2010, an increase of more than 13 percentage points. The concentration of China's steel industry has increased, indicating that the government's policies to regulate the steel industry have been effective.

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