Rapeseed Meal price analysis
7.1 Price change of rapeseed meal in China
In the last 10 years, the price of rapeseed meal in China has risen in a fluctuating manner, with the price range between 800-2800 yuan/ton. From 2001 to the first half of 2003, the output of rapeseed at home and abroad increased and the price fell. The domestic supply of rapeseed meal was abundant, and the price remained low. The price of rapeseed meal in the main production areas of the Yangtze River Basin mainly operated between 800-1100 yuan/ton. From the second half of 2003 to the first quarter of 2004, affected by the decline of oil and fat production at home and abroad and the continuous rise of prices, the price of domestic rapeseed meal rose sharply, and the highest price was more than 1700 yuan/ton. In the second quarter of 2004, the price of domestic rapeseed meal fell sharply due to the sharp drop in domestic and foreign oil prices. From the second half of 2004 to the first half of 2007, the domestic rapeseed meal price maintained a volatile operation, with the main operating range of 1200-1500 yuan/ton, and the price bottom was obviously too high. From the second half of 2007 to the second half of 2008, affected by the continuous rise of global commodity prices, the domestic rapeseed meal price once again went out of a round of sharp rise, reaching a maximum of 2750 yuan/ton. The financial crisis broke out in the second half of 2008, and the price of domestic rapeseed meal also fell sharply. After the state introduced the policy of market purchase of rapeseed at the end of 2008, the price of domestic rapeseed meal stopped falling and recovered. From 2009 to 2011, we continued to implement the market support purchase policy of rapeseed, and gradually increased the purchase price of domestic rapeseed. Driven by the sharp rise in the price of domestic raw materials, domestic rapeseed meal rose significantly, and the price bottom rose again. Since 2010, the price of domestic rapeseed meal has mainly operated between 2000 yuan and 2400 yuan/ton. In the past two years, the purchase price of national policy rapeseed is the main influencing factor of rapeseed meal in China, and the rising raw material price has raised the bottom price of domestic rapeseed meal.
7.2 Seasonal characteristics of rapeseed meal price changes in China
Due to the seasonal production of rapeseed meal and the obvious influence of rapeseed meal feed consumption in peak and off seasons, the price of rapeseed meal in China shows a seasonal fluctuation law. From February to April each year, the stock of domestic rapeseed meal is small, aquaculture begins to increase, and the price of rapeseed meal generally rises. From May to August, domestic rapeseed began to come into the market in a centralized way, and the new supply of rapeseed meal increased significantly. The price of domestic rapeseed meal often fell, and the price often fell to the lowest point in the year between June and July, when the supply capacity of rapeseed meal was the strongest in the new season. From August to October, the pressing season of domestic rapeseed has ended in succession, and the supply capacity of rapeseed meal tends to decrease, while aquaculture has entered the peak season of demand for rapeseed meal, presenting a supply and demand pattern of reduced supply expectations and significantly increased demand. The price of domestic rapeseed meal has an obvious upward trend. From November to February of the next year, the peak procurement season of the aquaculture industry ended, and the domestic rapeseed meal price generally showed a stable or small decline.
7.3 Analysis of factors affecting the price of rapeseed meal in China
7.3.1 Impact of domestic rapeseed meal supply and demand changes on prices
Before 2010, the quantity of rapeseed meal imported by China was relatively small, and the price of rapeseed meal was mainly affected by domestic supply and demand. Generally, if the domestic rapeseed meal output drops in that year, the price will rise; If the domestic rapeseed meal output increases, the price will decline. In 2009, due to the significant increase in China's rapeseed production and imports, the domestic rapeseed meal supply was in surplus, and fell sharply in the second half of the year. In 2010, China's rapeseed meal output declined, and there was a gap between supply and demand. Domestic rapeseed meal prices remained high.
Since the fourth quarter of 2009, the Chinese government began to restrict the import of rapeseed from the main production areas, which led to a sharp decline in the import of rapeseed. In the case that the output of domestic rapeseed is difficult to increase significantly, the output of domestic rapeseed meal has declined, but the consumption has maintained a small increase trend, leading to a further expansion of the gap between the production and demand of domestic rapeseed meal, which must be made up by importing a large amount of rapeseed meal. In 2010, China imported 1.22 million tons of rapeseed meal, 4.9 times that of 2009. From January to September this year, China imported 1.22 million tons of rapeseed meal, which was the same as that of the same period last year. In the past two years, China has imported a large number of rapeseed meal, which has significantly improved the supply and demand of domestic rapeseed meal, and the price of rapeseed meal is relatively stable.
7.3.2 Impact of imported rapeseed meal on domestic price
Although China has imported a large amount of rapeseed meal in recent two years to make up for the shortage of domestic production and demand, due to the VAT exemption on rapeseed meal import, the dutiable price of imported rapeseed meal is relatively low, which has a restraining effect on the price of domestic rapeseed meal. From January to September 2011, the import volume of rapeseed meal in China's coastal areas reached 1.222 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 26.37%, and the average import cost was between 2050-2150 yuan/ton, which was 100-150 yuan/ton lower than the price of domestic rapeseed meal in the same period, impacting the domestic market to a certain extent. At the same time, the coastal rapeseed meal import area is also an important sales area of domestic rapeseed meal. The local rapeseed meal import volume has increased significantly, the demand for domestic rapeseed meal has decreased, and the price is cheap, which has depressed the price of domestic rapeseed meal.
7.3.3 Impact of oil supply and demand in the international market on domestic prices
The price of domestic rapeseed meal has a strong linkage with the supply and demand of the international oilseed market. In 2004 and 2008, the global oilseed production decreased, and the supply and demand of the global oilseed market was tight soybean 、 Soybean meal In order to represent the sharp rise in the price of oilseed market, the price of domestic rapeseed meal has risen significantly, especially reaching a record high of 2750 yuan/ton in 2008. In 2005 and 2009, the global oilseed production and oilseed production recovered, and the supply and demand of the global oilseed market improved. Affected by the sharp drop in the price of the oilseed market, domestic rapeseed meal reached a periodic low, of which the lowest level in nearly four years was 1450 yuan/ton in 2009. In the past two years, the global oil supply has been relatively stable, and the domestic rapeseed meal price trend has been relatively stable, with price volatility significantly weaker than in the past 10 years.
7.3.4 Impact of other protein meal price changes on rapeseed meal price
1. Soybean meal
Rapeseed meal is the second largest protein meal variety in China in terms of supply and demand, accounting for far less than soybean meal in the total protein meal market. Rapeseed meal prices are strongly related to soybean meal prices, and the price trend of rapeseed meal is also greatly affected by changes in soybean meal prices.
In the past decade, China Rapeseed meal The price difference between soybean meal and soybean meal fluctuated significantly, with a fluctuation range of 500-2100 yuan/ton. In the last two years, the operating range of the price difference between the two is between 500-1200 yuan/ton, which is significantly smaller than that in the past decade, and shows a regular change of falling in the first half of the year and rising in the second half of the year. There are differences in the reasons for the price difference between the years. In the first half of 2010, the price of domestic soybean meal fell, while the price of rapeseed meal rose, and the price difference between the two fell to a historical low of 500 yuan/ton. In the second half of 2010, the cost of imported soybeans increased, and the price increase of domestic rapeseed meal was less than that of soybean meal, and the price difference gradually expanded. In the first half of 2011, the price of rapeseed meal fell slightly in the new season. Affected by the sufficient supply of imported soybeans, the price of soybean meal fell sharply, and the price difference between the two fell rapidly. In the third quarter of 2011, the increase of rapeseed meal in the new season was smaller than that of soybean meal, similar to the situation in the previous year, and the price difference between the two gradually expanded.
2. Cottonseed meal
Both cottonseed meal and rapeseed meal are limited protein raw materials in feed application. Cottonseed meal and rapeseed meal can be used in combination, which is a complementary relationship in practical application. Due to different degrees of hulling, cottonseed meal has a wide range of protein content, and cottonseed meal with different protein content has different prices, But in most cases, the price of cottonseed meal is higher than that of rapeseed meal by more than 40%. The price change of cottonseed meal has a great impact on rapeseed meal. Generally, the price rise and fall of cottonseed meal are consistent with the price trend of rapeseed meal. Domestic in 2010 cotton The output dropped significantly, and the prices of cotton, cottonseed, cotton hull, and cotton linter all rose sharply, but the price of cottonseed meal rose relatively little, mainly because the price of protein meal such as rapeseed meal rose slightly. Since 2011, the price of cottonseed and by-products has continued to decline. Although the price of cottonseed meal has also declined significantly, the decline is relatively small, mainly because the price of rapeseed meal, soybean meal and other protein meals has declined slightly.
7.3.5 Impact of feed breeding enterprise demand on rapeseed meal price change
Rapeseed meal is mainly used as feed protein raw material, and the change of consumption demand in domestic feed breeding industry has a greater impact on rapeseed meal. The increase of domestic feed consumption demand, especially the increase of aquatic feed demand, often drives the price of rapeseed meal to rise, and vice versa.
