China is a major methanol country in the world. In 2010, China's methanol production capacity, output and consumption ranked first in the world.
Methanol is an important basic chemical raw material and energy substitute. There are many downstream industries based on methanol, and the product coverage is wide, especially the application and development of emerging downstream products such as methanol to olefin and methanol fuel, which opens up a broader application prospect for methanol and makes it more important in the national economy.
1、 Basic situation of methanol industry in China
The methanol industry in China started in the 1950s and independently developed the combined production process of synthetic ammonia and methanol in the 1970s. With the successful research and development, promotion and application of fine desulfurization process in the 1990s, the methanol industry entered the first rapid development period dominated by the combined production process; During the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" period, with the increase of market demand and the expectation of emerging downstream applications, as well as the improvement of the design and manufacturing technology of large-scale methanol equipment, the second rapid development period, which focuses on the production of single alcohol process, appeared.
During the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" period, China's methanol industry has made great progress in production scale, technical level, management ability, financing environment, downstream application development, etc., showing the following main characteristics.
1. The production capacity, output and apparent consumption increased significantly, but the market price was restrained
During the 11th Five Year Plan period, China's methanol production capacity and output increased significantly. According to the statistics of Methanol Professional Committee of China Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry Association, by the end of 2010, there were 291 enterprises in China's methanol industry, with the capacity of 38.4 million tons, which was three times more than the initial period of the "Eleventh Five Year Plan", with an average annual growth rate of 32%; The output in 2010 was 17.52 million tons, an increase of 169% over the initial period of the 11th Five Year Plan, with an average annual growth rate of about 22%.
By 2010, the apparent consumption of methanol in China had reached 22.7 million tons, nearly double the initial period of the 11th Five Year Plan, with an average annual growth rate of 24%. Traditional downstream products such as acetic acid, formaldehyde and DMF have increased to a certain extent. The application of methanol fuel has increased significantly. Methanol to olefin has been used in a small amount in 2010.
The methanol market price was at a relatively high level before the global financial crisis in the second half of 2008. After that, a large number of foreign methanol were exported to China at a low price, causing a sharp drop in the domestic methanol market price, leading to a long-term reversal of the market price with production costs and serious losses in the industry. Since 2010, this situation has improved, market prices have stabilized and recovered, and some enterprises have made profits, but some enterprises still struggle to survive near the cost line.
In 2010, the capacity utilization rate of methanol industry was only 46%, and only increased to about 50% in 2011.
2. Enterprise layout is concentrated on resources
Methanol production enterprises in China are mainly distributed in raw material resources and key consumption areas. In recent years, there is an obvious trend to develop into raw material resources. Coal based enterprises are mainly concentrated in Shandong, Henan, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi and other provinces; Enterprises using natural gas as raw material are mainly concentrated in the southwest and northwest, of which Inner Mongolia, Hainan, Shaanxi and Chongqing have the largest production capacity; Enterprises using coke oven gas as raw material are mainly concentrated in Shanxi, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong and other provinces. In 2010, the methanol production capacity of Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Henan, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Hebei accounted for 65% of the total national production capacity.
East China, Central China and South China are the main regions for methanol transfer.
3. Raw material structure tends to coal utilization
China is short of oil and gas and relatively rich in coal resources. Therefore, the raw material route of methanol production, which is dominated by coal and supplemented by natural gas, is suitable for China's national conditions. During the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" period, with the adjustment of the national raw material policy and technological progress, the new facilities mainly use coal as raw material, especially the facilities using non anthracite as raw material develop rapidly; Natural gas production capacity is reduced due to the impact of tight gas sources; Methanol from coke oven gas has been attached importance as a comprehensive utilization of resources, and the production capacity has increased. In 2010, coal accounted for 66% of China's methanol production capacity, natural gas for 23%, and coke oven gas for 11%.
4. The scale and concentration of enterprises have increased significantly
The characteristics of methanol industry during the 11th Five Year Plan period are as follows: methanol production capacity of methanol plants increases with the development of synthetic ammonia; Rapid development of large single alcohol devices; The equipment scale has been greatly improved. By the end of 2010, Shenhua, Yankuang, CNOOC, Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy And other 4 megaton super large enterprises; Shanghai Coking, Pingmei Lantian, Yulin Natural Gas, ENN Energy, Shenmu Chemical, Alliance Chemical, Longyu Coal Chemical and other 10 enterprises with a capacity of 500000 to 1000000 tons; 36 large enterprises with an annual methanol production capacity of more than 300000 tons. However, there are still 175 small methanol enterprises with an enterprise scale of less than 100000 tons, most of which are synthetic ammonia and coking methanol plants.
5. Technical level
In recent years, China has successfully developed a number of advanced technology and equipment with independent intellectual property rights: multi nozzle opposed coal water slurry gasification technology, pulverized coal pressurized gasification technology, economical entrained flow bed staged gasification technology, methanol low-pressure synthesis technology and equipment, fine desulfurization technology; Alcoholization technology, methanol ammonia co production technology, new low-temperature methanol synthesis catalyst, ultrafiltration methanol separation technology; The development and application of methanol rectification technology, automation, information management technology, etc. further improve the technical level of methanol production. In particular, the large-scale methanol facilities with coal, natural gas and coke oven gas as raw materials have improved the overall level of China's methanol industry, and some facilities have approached or reached the world's advanced level.
2、 Main problems existing in China's methanol industry at present
1. Over investment and obvious overcapacity
During the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" period, especially in the later period of the "Eleventh Five Year Plan", with the rapid development of China's national economy, the pull of industrial demand, and the excessive optimism for downstream applications, blind investment in the methanol industry has occurred, resulting in a substantial increase in methanol capacity, and overcapacity has become very serious. According to the statistics of the Methanol Professional Committee of China Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry Association, there are still 18 million tons of capacity to be officially put into production in 2011 and the capacity under construction and planned to be completed before 2013. If the backward capacity cannot be eliminated as soon as possible and the bottleneck of downstream product application cannot be broken, the contradiction of overcapacity will become more prominent.
2. Unreasonable industrial structure
In terms of raw material structure: tight supply of natural gas and rising price of anthracite
In recent years, domestic natural gas is in short supply and the price rises. Methanol enterprises using natural gas as raw material, accounting for 23% of the total production capacity, are facing the pressure that gas supply cannot be guaranteed and prices continue to rise; Fixed bed methanol enterprises with anthracite as raw material, accounting for about 43% of the total capacity, are also facing the pressure of raw material adjustment.
In terms of enterprise structure: the concentration is low, and the capacity scale of some methanol facilities is small
The co production of methanol in the production of synthetic ammonia and coking is a comprehensive utilization project. Due to the constraints of the scale of synthetic ammonia and coking, the equipment scale is bound to be small. These enterprises are in line with the national policy of comprehensive utilization of resources and should be protected even though they are small.
In recent ten years, with the continuous production of large single alcohol devices, the average scale of single alcohol devices has increased significantly. However, there are about 20 single alcohol enterprises with output of 100000 tons or less, accounting for only 3.3% of the total amount of single alcohol. These enterprises are small in scale, backward in technology and weak in product competitiveness.
Product structure: single product variety, low comprehensive profitability and risk resistance
The product structure of methanol enterprises in China is characterized by simplification and homogenization. Most enterprises sell methanol as an end product. The simplification of products causes enterprises to rely heavily on the methanol market, with low risk resistance and comprehensive profitability.
3. The pressure of energy conservation, emission reduction and environmental protection governance is great, and the enterprise's self transformation ability is weak
Methanol industry is an energy intensive industry and a large water consumer, especially enterprises using coal as raw materials, which have a heavy task in energy conservation, water conservation and pollutant emission reduction. At present, there have been a number of advanced energy-saving and environmental protection technology achievements in the methanol industry. However, in recent years, due to serious losses in the whole industry, most enterprises have been plagued by financial constraints during the new technology transformation.
3、 The situation faced by China's methanol industry
During the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" period, China's methanol industry faces both development opportunities and challenges, mainly in the following aspects.
First, the consumption demand for methanol will continue to increase in the process of industrialization and urbanization in China
2011-2015 is an important strategic opportunity period for China's economic and social development, which will put forward higher and newer requirements for the development of methanol industry. With the development of industrialization and urbanization in China, and with the improvement of people's living standards, methanol, as an important basic chemical raw material, will maintain a relatively stable growth trend in the social demand increase of traditional downstream applications, including plastics, synthetic fibers, synthetic rubber, adhesives, dyes, coatings, spices, medicine and pesticides.
Second, the emerging downstream application of methanol has achieved initial results and has a bright future
The production process technology (MTP/MTO for short) of using coal as raw material to produce ethylene, propylene and other low-carbon olefins through methanol is a hot spot in the development of China's coal chemical industry in recent years. Domestic scientific research institutes such as Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences have mastered the core technology of methanol to olefins. The early pilot of this new technology with independent intellectual property rights during the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" has achieved results, Thus, methanol to olefin becomes a new direction of downstream application of methanol.
At present, there are 4 sets of large-scale methanol to olefin devices in China that have been officially put into operation and commissioned, namely Shenhua Baotou, Shenhua Ningmei, Datang Duolun and Sinopec Zhongyuan. In particular, Shenhua Baotou project has been in good operation after the successful one-time commissioning in 2010. Since the commercial operation was officially started on January 1, 2011, the continuous high load (device load reaches more than 95%) has operated safely and stably, and all technical indicators have reached or close to the design value. The product quality is qualified and the economic benefits are outstanding. In June 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission organized the "Shenhua Baotou Coal to Olefin Demonstration Project Technical and Economic Assessment Site Meeting" and "Assessment Meeting" respectively, The expert group believes that: "Shenhua Baotou Coal to Olefin Demonstration Project has realized the industrialization, engineering, scale and localization of technical equipment, marking that China's coal to olefin technology is in the leading position in the world. The successful commercial operation of the demonstration project is of great significance to China's coal to olefin development. Under the current oil coal price ratio, coal to olefin economic benefits are good." According to the assessment results, the equipment operation load, methanol raw material consumption per ton of olefins, catalyst and utilities consumption and other technical indicators meet the contract requirements, which proves the successful commercial operation.
It is believed that on the basis of comprehensively summarizing the experience of the methanol to olefin demonstration project and evaluating the advancement, reliability, economy and carbon emission indicators of the technology, the application of methanol to olefin technology during the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" is expected to make breakthrough progress and become an important direction for downstream application of methanol.
In addition, based on the development trend of rising international oil prices and substantial increase in gasoline consumption in China, new fuels such as methanol gasoline, methanol fuel and dimethyl ether will also become new consumption growth points of methanol with the improvement of standards and the construction of sales network.
Third, the export of foreign methanol to China will exist for a long time
Since the fourth quarter of 2008, a large number of foreign low-cost methanol has hit the Chinese market, causing a sharp drop in the domestic methanol price. The whole methanol industry has suffered huge losses, and a large number of enterprises have been forced to stop production and reduce production. In 2009, China's methanol production capacity was only 43%. In order to survive, 33 domestic methanol enterprises jointly applied to the Ministry of Commerce for "anti-dumping investigation on imported methanol originating in Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand and Saudi Arabia" in June 2009 and successfully filed a case, which played an effective role in deterring and curbing a large number of foreign methanol imports at low prices and restored market confidence, Market prices stabilized and recovered. However, in terms of quantity, China's annual import of methanol in the past two years has remained around 5 million tons, and this situation will continue.
In recent years, foreign methanol production capacity has also increased year by year, with production capacity growth significantly higher than consumption growth, and overcapacity is prominent. Most of these new production capacities come from resource countries. They are export-oriented, with cheap natural gas or oilfield associated gas as raw materials, and have scale advantages, so they have obvious market competitiveness. As China's economy is very active and energy prices remain high, China will inevitably become an important target market for foreign methanol producers in the next few years. The export of foreign methanol to China will exist for a long time, which is bound to have an impact on China's methanol industry and market. China's methanol enterprises will inevitably face an increasingly complex and competitive international market environment.
Fourth, the rising prices of raw materials and power have a great impact on the cost of methanol
With the acceleration of China's marketization process, the prices of coal, natural gas, electricity, transportation, etc. will inevitably continue to rise, and the pressure on methanol enterprises to increase product costs will become greater and greater.
Fifth, the development of methanol industry faces the test of energy conservation and emission reduction
As an important basic raw material industry and a traditional energy and water consuming industry, energy conservation and emission reduction in methanol industry will be an imperative and arduous task.
4、 Basic ideas for the development of methanol industry in the next five years
In the next five years, China's methanol industry should grasp the current and long-term relationship and vigorously promote structural adjustment and technological progress; Strictly control the blind expansion of methanol production capacity and eliminate backward production capacity; Accelerate the market research and development of new technologies and products, extend the product chain, actively expand downstream applications, realize the sustainable, stable and healthy development of the methanol industry, and promote the transformation from a large methanol country to a strong methanol country. The development will focus on the following aspects.
1. Reasonably control the total amount of methanol and accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity
We should strengthen the guidance of industrial development from three aspects: improving the efficiency of energy conversion, optimizing the industrial layout, and strict access conditions. Strictly examine and approve new projects, raise the threshold of access, and curb blind construction. Establish and improve the market mechanism and strengthen its role in eliminating backward production capacity and promoting industrial restructuring. The advanced production capacity replaces the backward production capacity to realize the total balance and the reasonable adjustment of the industrial layout.
2. Improve industrial concentration and optimize industrial layout
We will encourage strong alliances, mergers and acquisitions. Support leading enterprises and energy enterprises in the industry, integrate production factors, optimize resource allocation, achieve complementary advantages, form large-scale and intensive enterprise groups, and improve industrial concentration through mergers and reorganization.
Further optimize the industrial layout and promote the concentration of production capacity to resources in accordance with the requirements of the park oriented and intensive mode and the development of circular economy and the protection of ecological environment. Promote the development of downstream methanol industry chain in northwest China, improve the local digestibility of methanol products, and reduce the transportation of low value liquid products.
3. Accelerate the adjustment of raw material structure
Improve and improve coal water slurry gasification and pressurized powder Coal gasification And other technologies. Under the premise of total volume control, enterprises with capital and resource conditions should adjust their raw material structure to reduce excessive dependence on natural gas and Jincheng anthracite. Actively develop methanol production with coke oven gas as raw material to promote the effective utilization of coke oven gas resources.
4. Actively promote the adjustment of product structure, improve the economic efficiency of enterprises, change the development mode, encourage enterprises to develop in the direction of extending product chain and product diversification, and realize the high performance, specialization and high added value of products. Change the current situation that methanol is basically sold as a commodity, with low added value and weak anti risk ability.
Encourage methanol enterprises to give full play to their technological, economic and local resource advantages. On the basis of existing products, focus on the development of high-tech, market demand, high value-added extension products in new chemical materials, fine chemicals, new energy and other fields, and give priority to the development of resources comprehensive utilization products. Accelerate the improvement and evaluation of methanol to olefin demonstration projects and the timely and appropriate promotion of mature technologies, and actively promote the market research and development of methanol fuel and new products and technologies downstream of methanol.
5. Lead the industry's technological progress with independent innovation and eliminate backward technology and equipment
Strengthen the development and research of cutting-edge technology and core technology equipment. Focus on the development of domestic dry pulverized coal gasification technology to further scale up and increase gasification pressure, high-efficiency large-scale domestic compressor technology, and high-efficiency, low-pressure, large-scale methanol synthesis technology. Promote the clean utilization of coal, improve the comprehensive utilization level of low-quality coal with high ash, high sulfur and low calorific value, and promote the efficient and clean comprehensive utilization technology of lignite. Promote the localization of large methanol equipment with a tonnage of more than one million tons.
Promote advanced technologies such as continuous pressurized coal gasification, low pressure methanol synthesis, fine desulfurization, medium and low pressure methanol synthesis catalyst, and improve the technical level of equipment; Eliminate and restrict backward processes and equipment, and improve the equipment status of enterprises.
Establish enterprise technology R&D center with professional advantages to improve enterprise technology level; Establish enterprise training system and improve staff quality; Promote industry university research cooperation and improve independent innovation capability; Increase the investment of R&D funds of enterprises and enhance the ability of independent innovation. The technology R&D expenses of methanol enterprises should not be less than 1% of sales revenue and should increase year by year. The R&D investment of qualified enterprises shall meet the national requirement of not less than 3% for high-tech enterprises.
6. Develop and apply cleaner production and environmental protection technologies to build an environment-friendly enterprise
Make overall plans for industrial development and ecological environment protection, and focus on promoting cleaner production, energy conservation and emission reduction. Accelerate the promotion and application of new energy-saving technologies, make full use of the waste heat and pressure in the production process, realize the cascade utilization of energy, and reduce the consumption of raw materials and power. Increase the investment in clean production and environmental protection, comprehensively promote the utilization of solid waste gas and waste gas, ultra-low emission of circulating cooling water, ammonia boiler flue gas desulfurization and other technologies, and do a good job in the resource utilization of three wastes.
In his work published in 2006, Professor George A. Ora, the Nobel Prize winner in chemistry and the famous American organic chemist, proposed a new concept to solve the energy problem: methanol economy. He believes that "the production of methanol from CO2 is an excellent fuel in itself. Methanol can also easily be dehydrated to produce ethylene and propylene, which can be converted into synthetic hydrocarbons and their derivatives. Therefore, methanol can relieve human dependence on the dwindling oil and natural gas (even coal) resources. At the same time, we can reduce or eliminate one of the main factors of global climate change (i.e. global warming) caused by human activities by recycling the excessive emissions of CO2. " "Methanol, as a fuel and energy carrier, can create an era. It can span the era of oil and gas - methanol economy." Therefore, we are confident in the development of the methanol industry. As long as we seize the opportunity, take effective measures, and manage orderly, China's methanol industry will usher in a better golden development period.
