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Basic knowledge of methanol: supply and demand

http://www.sina.com.cn    21:27, May 22, 2012    Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange

   Supply and demand of methanol

   1、 Methanol production

China's methanol industry began in the 1950s. After decades of development, especially since the beginning of 2002, China's methanol market has been strongly driven by downstream demand. Methanol production enterprises have expanded production and built new units, which has led to a sharp increase in China's methanol production capacity and production for years. In 2009, China's methanol production capacity reached 27.17 million tons, with the actual output of 11.229 million tons. In 2010, China's methanol production capacity reached 37.565 million tons, with the output of 15.7526 million tons, becoming the world's largest methanol producer.

Methanol production capacity and output in China from 2004 to 2010

particular year Capacity (10000 tons) Capacity growth rate (%) Output (10000 tons) Output growth rate (%)
two thousand and four seven hundred and thirty-two twenty-two four hundred and forty point six forty-seven point four two
two thousand and five eight hundred and ninety-three twenty-one point nine nine five hundred and thirty-five point six four twenty-one point five seven
two thousand and six one thousand three hundred and ninety-nine fifty-six point six six seven hundred and forty-five point eight thirty-nine point two four
two thousand and seven two thousand and thirty-two forty-five point two five one thousand and twelve point six thirty-five point seven seven
two thousand and eight two thousand three hundred and thirty-eight fifteen point zero six one thousand one hundred and nine point nine nine point six one
two thousand and nine two thousand seven hundred and seventeen sixteen point two one one thousand one hundred and twenty-two point nine one point one seven
two thousand and ten three thousand seven hundred and fifty-six point five thirty-eight point two six one thousand five hundred and seventy-five point two six forty point two eight

Data source: 2010 Treasure Island Methanol Annual Report

From the perspective of methanol production process, China's total methanol production capacity in 2010 was 37.565 million tons, of which coal to methanol production capacity was 23.69 million tons, accounting for 63% of the total capacity; The production capacity of methanol from coke oven gas has increased to 5.925 million tons, accounting for 15.8%; The proportion of natural gas to methanol production capacity was slightly reduced to about 21.2%, with a production capacity of 7.95 million tons.

Focusing on resources has become the dominant trend of methanol production capacity layout in China. Inner Mongolia, Henan, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Chongqing and other places will become the most favored regions for methanol production enterprises by virtue of their resource advantages; Shandong, Hebei and other traditional large methanol producing provinces will slow down their capacity expansion due to the constraints of total resources and environmental capacity.

The main producing areas of methanol in China are Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Henan, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei and other provinces and regions. In 2010, there were five provinces and regions with methanol output of more than 1 million tons, including Shandong 3.3382 million tons, Inner Mongolia 1.759 million tons, Henan 1.715 million tons, Shaanxi 1.49 million tons, and Shanxi 1.0706 million tons, accounting for 59.5% of the total national output.

Statistics of China's methanol output by province from 2006 to 2010

Unit: 10000 tons

region 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
whole country seven hundred and fifty-eight point six one thousand and seventy-six point three six one thousand one hundred and twenty-six point two eight one thousand one hundred and thirty-three point four one thousand five hundred and seventy-five point two six
Shandong one hundred and ten point three four one hundred and forty-four point eight seven one hundred and forty-seven point five eight one hundred and thirty-six point three three hundred and thirty-three point eight two
Inner Mongolia twenty-seven point two one hundred and thirty-nine point eight one hundred point eight eight one hundred and fifty-seven point one three one hundred and seventy-five point nine
Henan one hundred and thirty-two point eight one hundred and seventy-five point nine five one hundred and sixty-five point four eight one hundred and fifty-eight point zero one one hundred and seventy-one point five
Shaanxi seventy point zero one ninety-two point eight nine one hundred and seven point five seven one hundred and fifty point one six one hundred and forty-nine
Shanxi fifty-seven point two six seventy-two point six nine seventy-one point one nine fifty-two point one one one hundred and seven point zero six
Hebei fifty-six point five two sixty-four point nine one seventy-one point four seven fifty-nine point three two eighty-four point five five
Chongqing twenty-nine point four four thirty-nine point five nine fifty point seven six forty-five point three three seventy-four point four nine
Hainan fourteen point nine five fifty-two point seven five sixty point zero five sixty point six three sixty-three point three six
Shanghai thirty-six point six eight thirty-four point one forty point zero nine forty-eight point one fifty-eight point four eight
Heilongjiang thirty-two point nine one thirty-five point two forty-one point nine nine forty-four point nine six fifty-four point one one
Ningxia zero one point two nine eight point five three fourteen point one five forty-nine point eight four
Hubei thirty-one point five one thirty point nine two twenty-six point zero eight twenty-nine point eight nine forty-one point six seven
Sichuan fifty-four point three nine fifty-nine point six three fifty-four point one nine twenty-five point zero six thirty-eight point zero eight
Anhui thirty-one point five twenty-nine point two four thirty-one point six thirty-five point one two thirty-four point five seven
Xinjiang seven point five two ten point eight one twenty-three point five seven seventeen point seven seven twenty-eight point six two
Qinghai fifteen point four four thirty-five forty point zero one thirty-eight point zero seven twenty-three point one seven
Fujian seven point three nine nine point four six eighteen point three five twelve point six one nineteen point three nine
Zhejiang eleven point four four thirteen point one nine fourteen point five eight seven point six six twelve point five one
Jiangsu four point seven one four point two four eight point four six six point eight five twelve point two seven
Yunnan three point four four three two point four six eight point two seven ten point zero three
Liaoning seven point zero four nine point zero one seven point one five six point four one nine point six one
Hunan seven point eight two four point four nine four point seven nine five point one six point one seven
Guangxi four point zero eight five point three four five point nine five four point three eight five point nine six
Gansu one point one two five point seven seven six point two one five point four five point zero five
Guizhou zero zero four point zero six two point zero seven three point five nine
Jiangxi one point two seven zero point two four zero point two five one point five five one point three three
Jilin zero zero zero point six three zero point three three one point one eight
Tianjin one point eight three one point nine nine one point two nine zero point three four zero
Beijing zero zero zero zero zero
Guangdong zero zero zero zero zero
Tibet zero zero zero zero zero

Data source: National Bureau of Statistics

In 2009, the capacity of the top 10 methanol producers in China totaled 7.52 million tons, accounting for 27.68% of the total capacity; In 2010, the total capacity of the top 10 methanol production enterprises was 10.88 million tons, accounting for 28.96% of the total capacity, slightly higher than that in 2009, indicating that the industrial concentration has increased.

Production capacity of top 10 methanol enterprises in China

Unit: 10000 tons/year

Top 10 methanol producers in 2009 capacity Top 10 methanol producers in 2010 capacity
Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy one hundred and thirty-three Shenhua Baotou Coal to Liquid one hundred and eighty
Shandong Yankuang Group one hundred and thirteen CNOOC Jiantao one hundred and forty
Shanghai Coking eighty Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy one hundred and thirty-three
Henan Pingmei Lantian seventy-three Shandong Jiutai Chemical one hundred and twenty-five
Shaanxi Yulin Natural Gas Chemical Industry sixty-three Shandong Yankuang Group one hundred and thirteen
Yankuang Yulin Energy and Chemical sixty ENN Group Co., Ltd ninety-six
Shaanxi Shenmu Chemical sixty Ningxia Shenhua Ningmei eighty-five
CNOOC Jiantao sixty Shanghai Coking eighty
Xinao Xinneng Chemical sixty Henan Pingmei Lantian seventy-three
Shandong Mingshui Chemical fifty Shaanxi Yulin Natural Gas Chemical Industry sixty-three
total seven hundred and fifty-two total one thousand and eighty-eight

Data source: China Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry Association, Treasure Island website

   2、 Methanol consumption

Compared with the rapid growth of domestic methanol output, the consumption of methanol in China has also experienced a rapid increase in recent years. In 2010, China's domestic apparent consumption of methanol was 20.9296 million tons, 4.82 times that of 4.3395 million tons in 2003, becoming the world's largest methanol consumer. The average annual growth rate of China's apparent consumption of methanol in the eight years from 2003 to 2010 reached more than 25%. Corresponding to the rapid growth of methanol production in China, the self-sufficiency rate of methanol consumption in China has increased significantly from 68.87% of the apparent consumption in 2003 to 97.29% in 2007, basically reaching self-sufficiency. However, due to the financial crisis and the cost advantage of foreign natural gas to methanol, China's methanol import volume jumped to 5.288 million tons in 2009, and the ratio of output to apparent consumption dropped to 68.04%. In 2010, the proportion rebounded to 75.27%.

Balance Sheet of Total Methanol Production and Sales in China from 2003 to 2010

Unit: 10000 tons

year Copies yield Import volume Export volume Apparent consumption Output/apparent consumption (%) Import/apparent consumption (%) Dependency (%)
two thousand and three two hundred and ninety-eight point eight seven one hundred and forty point one six five point zero eight four hundred and thirty-three point nine five sixty-eight point eight seven thirty-two point three zero thirty-one point one three
two thousand and four four hundred and forty point six one hundred and thirty-five point nine three point three five hundred and seventy-three point two seventy-six point eight seven twenty-three point seven one twenty-three point one three
two thousand and five five hundred and thirty-five point six four one hundred and thirty-six point zero three five point four five six hundred and sixty-six point two two eighty point four zero twenty point four two nineteen point six zero
two thousand and six seven hundred and forty-five point eight one hundred and twelve point seven nineteen eight hundred and thirty-nine point five eighty-eight point eight four thirteen point four two eleven point one six
two thousand and seven one thousand and twelve point six eighty-four point five fifty-six point three one thousand and forty point eight ninety-seven point two nine eight point one two two point seven one
two thousand and eight one thousand one hundred and nine point nine one hundred and forty-three point four thirty-six point eight one thousand two hundred and sixteen point five ninety-one point two four eleven point seven nine eight point seven six
two thousand and nine one thousand one hundred and twenty-three five hundred and twenty-eight point eight one point three eight one thousand six hundred and fifty point four two sixty-eight point zero four thirty-two point zero four thirty-one point nine six
two thousand and ten one thousand five hundred and seventy-five point three five hundred and eighteen point nine one point two four two thousand and ninety-two point nine six seventy-five point two seven twenty-four point seven nine twenty-four point seven three

Data source: Treasure Island website

From the perspective of methanol consumption regions, East China ranked first in methanol consumption in 2010, accounting for 44.44% of the country's consumption, mainly due to the fact that the demand for raw materials from downstream formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid and methanol gasoline in this region is significantly higher than that in other regions; With the support of stable demand for formaldehyde, dimethyl ether and methanol gasoline, North China's apparent consumption occupies the second place in the country, maintaining a level of 15.51%; The consumption of South China and Central China is also relatively large, accounting for 11.58% and 11.01% respectively; As an important place for methanol production, the consumption of Northwest China only accounts for 4.33%.

From the perspective of methanol consumption products, formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, methanol fuel, acetic acid, etc. are the main downstream products of methanol. In recent years, the traditional consumption fields of methanol in China, such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, medicine and pesticide, have developed steadily, and the consumption of methanol in these industries has also gradually increased. However, some emerging fields such as methanol blended with gasoline, dimethyl ether, methanol to olefin and other industries have developed rapidly, and the demand for methanol has also increased significantly.

Table of Consumption Structure of Methanol in China from 2007 to 2010

Consumption field Proportion (%)
2007 2008 2009 two thousand and ten
formaldehyde thirty-six point six thirty-six thirty-two twenty-seven
dimethyl ether eleven point five fifteen twenty-two nineteen
Blended with gasoline fifteen point seven fifteen thirteen twelve
acetic acid eight ten ten eleven
MTBE four six six eight
Methylamine seven four three three
other seventeen point two fourteen fourteen twenty
total one hundred one hundred one hundred one hundred

Note: Among the "other" methanol consumption projects in 2010, methanol to olefin accounted for 8%

Data source: 2007 data from PetroChina And the Chemical Industry Federation. The data for 2008 came from the annual meeting of China's plasticizing industry, and the data for 2009 and 2010 came from the 2010 Jinyin Island Methanol Annual Report

Unit consumption of main downstream products of methanol and relevant tax rates

Product name Unit consumption (ton) Tax code Import tax rate (MFN%) VAT rate (%)
formaldehyde zero point four five twenty-nine million one hundred and twenty-one thousand and one hundred five point five seventeen
dimethyl ether one point four two billion nine hundred and thirty-four million nine hundred and ninety-nine thousand and twenty-six six point five thirteen
Glacial acetic acid 0.53-0.55 twenty-nine million one hundred and fifty-two thousand one hundred and nineteen five point five seventeen
MTBE zero point three six twenty-nine million ninety-one thousand and nine hundred five point five seventeen
DMF one point one twenty-nine million two hundred and forty-one thousand nine hundred and ten six point five seventeen

Note: "Unit consumption" refers to the amount of methanol consumed per ton of relevant downstream products

China is rich in coal resources, and in recent years, breakthroughs have been made in the localization of coal chemical technology and equipment. The development prospects of emerging coal chemical industries such as alcohol ether fuel and methanol to olefin are optimistic. In addition to the steady development of traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde and acetic acid, it is expected that China's demand for methanol will continue to increase in the future.

   3、 Methanol trade

1. Domestic trade of methanol

At present, almost all domestic methanol is exported to the domestic market. Domestic methanol production plants are scattered, mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Henan, Shanxi and other inland areas, or in the western regions with inconvenient transportation and Hainan Province, while methanol consumption centers are relatively concentrated in eastern China and southern China, which are also the production centers of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, MTBE, etc. in China. In addition, methanol fuel is mainly developed and promoted in Shanxi, Shanghai, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Gansu, Inner Mongolia and other places.

The regional distribution of production and consumption of methanol industry determines that the current domestic trade of methanol is generally flowing from west to east, and the transportation is also mainly long-distance transportation by land (train or bus). From the current situation, the one-way flow of methanol transportation will remain for a long time. As methanol transportation requires the use of special tankers, there are many phenomena of empty return of transportation tools, resulting in waste of transportation capacity, which further aggravates the tension of railway transportation. In addition, this long-distance transportation reduces the stability and flexibility of supply, which can not be adjusted in time according to customer demand, and also makes methanol transportation costs rise significantly. Since transportation costs account for a large proportion (15% - 30%) of methanol prices, their changes will have a significant impact on methanol prices.

   2. Methanol import and export

China is a major consumer of methanol. From 2001 to 2007, with the rapid growth of domestic methanol production capacity and output, the methanol import volume gradually decreased, the export volume gradually increased, and the import dependence significantly decreased. In 2007, China's methanol import volume and import dependence reached a stage low, and the export volume significantly increased. However, since 2008, the methanol import volume has started to grow rapidly, especially in 2009 and 2010, the annual methanol import volume in China has remained above 5 million tons, while the export volume is less than 20000 tons, and the import dependency has risen to more than 20%.

Methanol import and export volume and import dependence in recent years

particular year Import volume (10000 tons) Export volume (10000 tons) Import dependency (%)
two thousand and one one hundred and fifty-two point one zero point nine six forty-two point two six
two thousand and two one hundred and seventy-nine point nine zero point zero nine forty-six point zero two
two thousand and three one hundred and forty point two five point zero eight thirty-one point one three
two thousand and four one hundred and thirty-five point nine three point three twenty-three point one three
two thousand and five one hundred and thirty-six five point four nineteen point six zero
two thousand and six one hundred and twelve point seven nineteen eleven point one six
two thousand and seven eighty-four point five fifty-six point three two point seven one
two thousand and eight one hundred and forty-three point four thirty-six point seven six eight point seven six
two thousand and nine five hundred and twenty-eight point seven nine one point three eight thirty-one point nine six
two thousand and ten five hundred and eighteen point nine one point two four twenty-four point seven three

Data source: China Customs statistics

The main sources of methanol import in China are Iran, Saudi Arabia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Bahrain, Indonesia, Chile, etc. The top five countries in terms of import volume in 2010 were Iran (2153400 tons, accounting for 41.5%), Saudi Arabia (739400 tons, accounting for 14.25%), Oman (679200 tons, accounting for 13.09%), Qatar (438000 tons, accounting for 8.44%) Malaysia (203900 tons, accounting for 3.93%).

Statistical Table of Methanol Import by Customs from 2008 to 2010

2008 2009 2010
Customs name Import volume

(10000 tons)

Proportion Customs name Import volume

(10000 tons)

Proportion Customs name Import volume (10000 tons) Proportion
Nanjing Customs seventy-eight point nine 55% Nanjing Customs three hundred and fifteen point two 59.6% Nanjing Customs two hundred and ninety-one point nine five 56.3%
Guangzhou Customs twenty-nine point seven 20.7% Guangzhou Customs sixty-nine point nine 13.2% Guangzhou Customs eighty-five point nine zero 16.6%
gongbei customs nine point eight 6.9% Ningbo Customs thirty-four point six 6.5% Ningbo

customs

thirty-seven point five zero 7.2%
Huangpu Customs eight point five 5.9% Qingdao Customs twenty-nine point eight 5.6% Huangpu Customs thirty-seven point four four 7.2%
Ningbo Customs five point two 3.6% Huangpu Customs twenty-eight point four 5.4% Xiamen Customs twenty-eight point nine eight 5.6%
Hangzhou Customs four 2.8% Xiamen Customs twenty-one point two 4% Hangzhou Customs nine point three three 1.8%
Xiamen Customs three point three 2.3% gongbei customs fifteen point four 2.9% gongbei customs eight point nine six 1.7%
Shenzhen Customs two 1.4% Hangzhou Customs four point seven 0.9% Nanning Customs eight point zero two 1.5%
other two 1.4% other nine point six 1.9% other ten point eight seven 2.1%
total one hundred and forty-three point four 100% total five hundred and twenty-eight point eight 100% total five hundred and nineteen 100%

Data source: 2010 Treasure Island Methanol Annual Report

   4、 International supply and demand of methanol

1. Global methanol supply and demand

Since the beginning of this century, the global supply and demand of methanol have shown a rapid growth. The annual average growth of production capacity is more than 10%, the annual average growth of output is 7%, and the annual average growth of demand is nearly 5%. In 2000, the global methanol production capacity was 38.03 million tons, the output was 29.09 million tons, and the demand was 28.17 million tons; In 2003, the global methanol production capacity exceeded 40 million tons, and the output and demand exceeded 30 million tons; In 2007, the global methanol production capacity exceeded 50 million tons, reaching 52.09 million tons, the output was 39.03 million tons, and the demand was 38.97 million tons; In 2008, the global methanol production capacity was nearly 60 million tons, and the output and demand exceeded 40 million tons; In 2009, the production capacity increased significantly to 75 million tons, the output was 42.11 million tons, and the demand was 42.07 million tons; In 2010, the global methanol production capacity reached about 100 million tons, the output was 57 million tons, and the demand was 45.2 million tons.

Global methanol supply and demand from 1999 to 2010

Unit: 10000 tons

particular year capacity yield requirement Operation rate (%)
one thousand nine hundred and ninety-nine three thousand four hundred and ninety-eight two thousand eight hundred and one two thousand seven hundred and thirty-seven eighty point one
two thousand three thousand eight hundred and three two thousand nine hundred and nine two thousand eight hundred and seventeen seventy-six point five
two thousand and one three thousand eight hundred and forty-one two thousand nine hundred and fifty-seven two thousand eight hundred and ninety-nine seventy-seven
two thousand and two three thousand eight hundred and forty-one three thousand and sixty-five two thousand nine hundred and eighty-four seventy-nine point eight
two thousand and three four thousand and thirteen three thousand one hundred and forty three thousand and seventy-one seventy-eight point two five
two thousand and four four thousand and sixty three thousand and three hundred three thousand one hundred and eighty eighty-one point three
two thousand and five four thousand three hundred and thirty-five three thousand five hundred and seventy-seven three thousand five hundred and seventy-six eighty-two point five
two thousand and six four thousand six hundred and six three thousand six hundred and twenty-seven three thousand six hundred and twenty-nine seventy-eight point seven
two thousand and seven five thousand two hundred and nine three thousand nine hundred and three three thousand eight hundred and ninety-seven seventy-four point nine
two thousand and eight five thousand nine hundred and twelve four thousand and twenty-eight four thousand and forty-five sixty-eight point one
two thousand and nine seven thousand and five hundred four thousand two hundred and eleven four thousand two hundred and seven fifty-six point one five
two thousand and ten nine thousand eight hundred and forty-five five thousand and seven hundred four thousand five hundred and twenty fifty-seven point nine

Data source: MMSA Global Methanol Supply and Demand Balance

2. Global methanol production distribution

In terms of countries, methanol production in the world is mainly distributed in natural gas production areas, including Saudi Arabia, Iran and other Middle East countries; Trinidad, Venezuela, Chile and other Caribbean and South American countries; Indonesia, Malaysia and other Southeast Asian countries; Russia and other former Soviet Union countries as well as China (China has some natural gas methanol plants).

It is estimated that in 2015, the global methanol nominal capacity will exceed 100 million tons, the actual consumption will be 75 million to 80 million tons, the average utilization rate of effective capacity will be about 80%, and the capacity of China will also be controlled at about 50 million tons.

At present, there are 7 super large methanol manufacturers in the world accounting for a large share of the world's methanol production, and their total capacity accounts for 44% of the world's total capacity. The world's largest methanol producer is Methanex, headquartered in Canada, with an annual production capacity of more than 8 million tons. It has production facilities in Canada, Chile, New Zealand, Trinidad and Tobago and the United States. Its total production capacity accounts for 21% of the world's total capacity, and its supply covers 40% - 50% of the global methanol market, accounting for one third of the world's exports; The second is Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC), whose production capacity accounts for about 9% of the global total capacity; Borden and BMC in the United States, TOMCK and Γ y Б AXA in Russia and Edmonton in Canada also ranked top.

In the Middle East, Latin America and North Africa, the rich natural gas resources and cheap prices have attracted many investors. In the next few years, a large number of methanol construction projects will be put into operation in the Middle East, of which the capacity of methanol projects under construction in Saudi Arabia is nearly 3.35 million tons and that in Iran is 4.25 million tons. According to statistics, from 2008 to 2010, the total production capacity of new methanol plants in the world reached 29.7 million tons.

Global methanol capacity distribution in 2010

Unit: 10000 tons

Name of manufacturer Country 2010 Capacity Capacity under construction remarks
Methanex Chile three hundred and eighty-four zero

  Methanex

Trinidad two hundred and fifty-five zero

  Methanex

New Zealand two hundred and forty zero One set of 900000 tons/year is kept in production,
The other two sets of 1.5 million t/a units are idle
Methanex Egypt zero one hundred and thirty

  Sabic

Saudi Arabia four hundred and eighty zero

  Sabic

Bahrain forty-five zero

  NPC

Iran one hundred and eight zero

  ZPC

Iran three hundred zero

  KPC

Iran sixty-six zero

Oman Methanol Company

Oman one hundred zero

Salalah Methanol Company

Oman one hundred zero

  Petronas

Malaysia two hundred and thirty-six zero

  Kaltim

Indonesia sixty-six zero

  Medco

Indonesia thirty-three zero

  QAFAC

Qatar one hundred zero

  BMC

Brunei eighty-five zero

  Others


  3,021

zero

Note: The table only lists the data of foreign businessmen who have export to China Source: 2010 Yimao Information Methanol Annual Report

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