4、 Main factors affecting the price of white sugar

There are many reasons that affect the price fluctuation of sugar. There are not only the influence of domestic production supply and changes in supply and demand in the international market, but also factors in sugar consumption, market system and macro-control. According to statistics, there are 15 kinds of factors in the world market agriculture products Sugar is the commodity with the most volatile price.

（1） Main factors affecting international sugar prices

1. Main exporting and consuming countries

Brazil, India, Thailand, Australia, Cuba, etc. are the major sugar producing countries (regions) and exporting countries (regions) in the world. The output, export volume, price and policies of these countries or regions are the main factors affecting the price of the international sugar market.

The EU, Russia, China, Indonesia, Pakistan and other countries are the world's major sugar consumers or importers. The sugar consumption, consumption habits, import policies, domestic output and other factors of these countries are also the main factors affecting the price of the international sugar market.

2. Impact of natural disasters on sugar production in major sugar producing countries

As an agricultural product, sugar production in various countries will inevitably be affected by natural disasters such as floods and droughts. In recent years, the impact of natural disasters on sugar production is particularly obvious.

3. The Influence of International Oil Price on Sugar Market

With the rising international oil price, some countries have joined the search for biological alternative energy such as sugarcane to alcohol in order to reduce their dependence on oil. Sugarcane is no longer a single agricultural product, but sugar is increasingly regarded as an energy product in the market. The rise and fall of oil prices not only affect the global economic situation, but also affect international freight, It will also affect the production of alcohol and thus the global sugar production. Therefore, the rise and fall of oil prices will inevitably affect the trend of sugar prices.

4. The impact of changes in the value of the US dollar and global economic growth on the sugar market

As a commodity priced in US dollars, sugar prices are affected not only by natural disasters, but also by the rise and fall of the US dollar and the global economic growth. In general, the decline in the value of the dollar means that the cost of buying sugar in the non dollar area has decreased, the purchasing power has increased, and the support for the international sugar market has increased. Conversely, the consumption demand in the non dollar area will be suppressed.

5. Impact of policy changes in major sugar importing countries on sugar market

Changes in the policies and tariff policies of major sugar importing countries have a great impact on the sugar market. The relevant policies of the International Sugar Organization, the subsidies of the European Union countries to sugar producers, and the production support policies of the United States government have an important impact on sugar supply worldwide. For example, the United States implements the quota system management of sugar, imports sugar from designated countries according to the quota, and the import price is generally higher than the international market price. The United States does not export raw sugar, but it exports a large amount of edible syrup refined from raw sugar. Therefore, if sugar producing countries export to the United States, they must first obtain import quotas from the United States. Brazil, Cuba and the European Union planned to control sugar production by controlling the planting area. The governments of India, the Philippines and Thailand control the export volume according to the domestic market conditions and adjust relevant policies at any time.

In recent years, Russia and the European Union are the two major sugar importing countries in the world, and the changes in sugar policies of these two economies have a relatively large impact on the international sugar market. The import policies of Indonesia, Pakistan and other countries will also affect the sugar price in the international market to a certain extent.

6. The influx of investment funds makes the international sugar market full of uncertainties

As the most powerful force in the sugar market, the choice of investment funds largely determines the rise and fall of sugar prices. When analyzing sugar price trends, it is absolutely not allowed to ignore the trend of investment funds. Historically, the scale of investment funds entering the commodity market is basically proportional to the speed of global economic growth, that is, the global economy is growing at a high speed, and the scale of investment funds' long positions in the commodity market is also expanding, and vice versa.

（2） Main factors affecting domestic sugar prices

1. Fluctuations in sugar production. The fluctuation of sugar production is the fundamental reason for the fluctuation of sugar market. Sugar industry is a typical agricultural product processing industry, and sugar raw materials are the basic factors determining sugar supply. The following factors affect the sugar yield:

(1) Sowing area. Under normal circumstances, the increase of sugar planting area will lead to the increase of sugar raw materials, which will lead to the increase of sugar output, and the sugar price will fall, otherwise, the sugar price will rise. Over the years, sugar production has been relatively slow to respond to market changes due to the long production cycle and industrial chain, leading to the disconnection between sugar planting, sugar production and the market, especially the inaccuracy or even distortion of market information, which easily misleads sugar planting, increases the instability of sugar planting area, and causes chain reaction in the market, The output of sugar materials directly affects the production of sugar and becomes the fundamental reason affecting the sugar market.

(2) Climate. Sugarcane has the characteristics of high temperature, strong light, large water demand and more fertilizer absorption during the growth period, so it has a special dependence on the heat, light, water and other conditions that constitute the climate resources. Drought, flood, strong wind, hail, low temperature and frost and other weather have disastrous effects on sugarcane in the growth period, and such effects will be long-term once they are formed. For example, the frost in the main sugarcane producing areas in China at the end of 1999 reduced the germination rate of perennial sugarcane, resulting in a reduction of more than 2 million tons of white sugar production during the 1999/2000 sugar production period.

2. Production and marketing relationship. The instability of sugar production and marketing is the main reason for price fluctuations. Sugar consumption in China mainly depends on domestic production. The sharp change in domestic sugar production has directly caused the instability of market supply and demand, leading to fluctuations in market prices. At the same time, the change of consumption is also an important factor affecting the relationship between supply and demand. In recent years, China's sugar consumption has entered a period of rapid growth. In this case, the relationship between production and marketing will become more unstable.

3. Seasonal factors. Sugar is a commodity produced quarterly and sold annually. There is a saying in the sugar industry that "seven deaths, eight deaths, nine deaths and nine reversals". Before May, due to the production in all production areas, the supply of goods was sufficient, the choice of merchants was relatively large, and the sugar factories needed funds urgently, the prices were chaotic. In June, the sugar mill stopped pressing, and the overall trend has not yet formed. At this time, the price is stable, many people hold a wait-and-see attitude, and some people sell at favorable prices. Since July, many manufacturers have less capital pressure and less pressure on production and sales rate. Due to an instinctive optimism about the future, or a heavy reluctance to sell, they naturally have to slow down the pace of sales. However, the merchants feel that it is still early to stock up, and the real peak season has not yet arrived, so the sugar market in July will not have much vitality. In August, there are only two months left for sales. The traditional Mid Autumn Festival is approaching, and the peak of sugar consumption has begun, so the market has a certain vitality. In September, as the sales of old sugar are nearing the end, and new sugar has not yet been listed, the price may rise.

4. National macro-control. The macro-control of the national regulation department on the sugar market has become one of the main factors affecting the changes in domestic sugar prices. When the sugar supply is short in a certain pressing season, the state uses sugar reserves to put it on the market. When the supply is surplus, the state purchases and stores sugar, Macro regulation has played a decisive role in the smooth operation of the domestic sugar market for many years. The national collection and storage, the temporary industrial collection and storage, and the turnover inventory of sugar merchants form a nationwide inventory that can affect the market price of sugar. Estimating the inventory of the current year and the next year and the state's purchase, storage and sale of sugar are of great significance for the correct estimation of sugar prices. In general, national reserve is an important positive factor, while reserve dumping is an important negative factor.

5. Alternatives. Sugar substitutes mainly include saccharin, sweetener, corn starch sugar, etc., which are widely used in snacks, beverages, candied fruits and other foods. Although it is impossible to completely replace sugar, its use reduces the normal market share of sugar, and has a certain impact on the supply and price of sugar.

6. The impact of holidays. In a year, the Spring Festival and the Mid Autumn Festival are the biggest holidays of sugar consumption in China. In the first month of the two holidays, due to the large amount of sugar used by the food industry, sugar consumption entered a peak period, during which sugar prices were often high. During the period after the two festivals, sugar prices often fell due to the reduction of white granulated sugar consumption. August and September are the peak months for sugar consumption. Mooncakes, preserves, drinks and biscuits in the north all need sugar, which will stimulate sugar consumption.

7. Changes in international markets and imports. Among the major sugar producing countries in the world, China and Australia are the only countries that have not implemented high tariff protection for the domestic sugar industry and implemented sugar trade liberalization, which determines that the domestic sugar market has a strong correlation with the international market.

As a net sugar importing country, China's sugar import volume has become the direct reason affecting the international and domestic markets. China's quasi sugar free trade policy does not require actual trade in many cases, and changes in international sugar market prices can also have an immediate impact on domestic prices. Since all enterprises engaged in the production, circulation and use of domestic sugar have realized that the international sugar market can affect the changes in the price, supply and demand of the domestic sugar market in many times through imports, they are generally concerned about the changes in the international sugar market. When the international sugar market changes significantly, they tend to take corresponding business actions, Therefore, changes in the domestic sugar market are often closely related to changes in the international sugar market, and follow suit. This situation does not occur because the import of sugar from the international market has changed the supply and demand of the domestic market, but because of the psychological and emotional impact of changes in the international sugar market on the domestic market.

8. Changes in the RMB exchange rate. At present, the RMB is in a state of continuous appreciation against the US dollar. The appreciation of the RMB will help reduce import costs and increase the number of imports. According to relevant estimates, the impact of RMB appreciation of 2% on the dutiable cost price of imported sugar is 60 yuan/ton.

9. Other factors. Some underdeveloped countries, such as Cuba, the Philippines and Dominica, rely mainly on sugar exports to exchange foreign exchange. The cultivated land in these countries is only suitable for planting sugarcane instead of other crops. The reduction of sugarcane production will greatly affect the economic situation of these countries, which will lead to the over supply of sugar production in these countries. In addition, some countries use sugarcane to extract ethanol, and Brazil is the main country that uses sugarcane to produce ethanol. The quantity of sugarcane used for ethanol production directly affects the quantity of sugarcane used for sugar processing.