Soybean supply and demand
（1） International market
1. Soybean production
Soybean production has spread to many countries and regions in the world, with the largest planting area in North America, South America and Asia. For many years, the world's soybean production has ranked first among all kinds of oil crops. At present, the United States is the largest soybean producer in the world. Its output accounts for more than half of the world's soybean output. Brazil, Argentina and China rank second, third and fourth in the world.
2. Import and export of soybeans
The US soybean export volume ranks first in the world, accounting for about 1/3 of its total output. Brazil and Argentina rank second and third respectively in terms of soybean exports in the world.
The EU is the main soybean importing region, with an annual import volume of about 15 million tons; The Asia Pacific region is the world's second soybean market after the European Union, with Japan importing about 5 million tons annually. China's import volume has grown rapidly in recent years, which is one of the driving forces for the growth of the world's soybean import.
3. Soybean consumption
The total consumption of soybean in the world has increased year by year in the past 10 years, from 109.756 million tons in 1991/92 to 173.69 million tons in 2000/2001, an increase of nearly 63%.
（2） Domestic market
1. Domestic soybean production
As one of the most important crops in China, soybean is planted almost all over the country. Since the 1980s, the annual output of soybean in China has been maintained at about 10 million tons. Until 1993, the sown area of soybean in China had a leap growth, reaching 9.454 million hectares, and the output reached 15.307 million tons, up 31% and 47% respectively from the previous year. In 1994, the output reached 16 million tons for the first time, and in the following years, the soybean production stagnated.
Heilongjiang Province is the main producer of soybean in China. In 2001, Heilongjiang Province produced 4.96 million tons of soybeans, accounting for 34% of the national output and more than half of the national commodity volume. In 2001, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong and Henan were also provinces and regions with soybean output of more than 500000 tons, accounting for 46% of the national soybean output. The soybean output of the other 23 provinces, autonomous regions and cities only accounts for 20%.
2. Import and export of soybean in china
Before 1995, China was a net soybean exporter. In 1995 and 1996, China's soybean production decreased for two consecutive years. Domestic supply was insufficient, but demand remained strong, and the price of soybean remained high. To this end, the state timely adjusted the import and export policy of soybeans, increasing imports and reducing exports. In 1996, China became a net importer of soybeans for the first time, and has continued to this day. In 2001, 13.94 million tons of soybeans were imported, accounting for 39% of the total domestic soybean supply, and 45% of the total domestic consumption. A total of 11.32 million tons of soybeans were imported in 2002 and 20.74 million tons in 2003.
The source countries of China's soybean imports are the United States, Brazil, Argentina, etc. In 2001, the United States exported 5.762 million tons to China, accounting for 41% of China's total imports that year.
3. Domestic soybean consumption
With the improvement of living standards of urban and rural residents in China, the demand for soybeans in China is also increasing year by year. First, the demand for soybean crushing has increased greatly, mainly because the domestic demand for soybean oil and soybean meal has continued to grow rapidly. Secondly, soybean consumption and industrial consumption have also been steadily increasing.
Analysis of China's soybean supply and demand balance (unit: 10000 tons)
Year 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/2000 2000/01 2001/02
Production 1030 1530 1600 1350 1320 1472 1515 1425 1540 1540.7
Inlet 15 12.5 15.5 79.5 227.4 294.3 385.8 1009 1394 1038.6
Oil pressing 502 754 796 814 884 975 1096 1639 2022 7600
Food and industry 470 550 580 590 610 630 660 680 740 19000
Domestic consumption 1020 1370 1441 1459 1547 1665 1818 2390 2816 27217
Outlet 30 110 39.4 22.2 19.5 16.8 18.8 22 20 230
Total demand 1050 1480 1480 1482 1567 1681 1837 2412 2836 27447
Soybean crop year: October of the current year to September of the next year
Source: National Grain and Oil Information Center
Supply and demand of soybean meal
1、 Supply and demand of international soybean meal market
（1） International production
Soybean meal is essentially a by-product of processing, and its output is mainly affected by raw materials and main products. Since the output of its raw materials, jujube and soybean, has always been the largest among all kinds of oil crops in the world, the soybean output accounted for 54%, 48%, 52% and 54% of the total output of oil crops in 1994, 1995, 96 and 97, respectively, and has always accounted for half of the total supply of oil crops in the world. Therefore, the output and consumption of soybean meal has always been the first of all kinds of protein meal.
Since the 1990s, soybean output has increased year by year. Compared with 1991, the output in 1998 increased by 52.46 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 7.25%. Among the four major soybean producing countries, China's output hesitated, and the output of Brazil, Argentina, and the United States reached a record high. Among them, the output of Brazil more than doubled compared to 1991. Other second tier producers such as India and Paraguay have also made considerable progress in soybean production.
Soybean meal production basically maintained the same growth rate as that of soybeans. The output in 1998 increased by 27.65 million tons compared with 1991, with an average annual growth rate of 5.72%. It can be said that in recent years, it is the increase in soybean meal production that has supported the continuous demand for protein meal around the world. From the perspective of output distribution, major soybean producers are also major soybean meal producers. The output of the United States, Brazil, Argentina and China accounts for more than 70% of the world's total output. In recent years, India's soybean meal production has also increased year by year, becoming a new force that cannot be ignored.
（2） World consumption
In recent years, the consumption of soybean meal in the world has increased by leaps and bounds. In 1997, the world soybean meal consumption was 98.8 million tons, an increase of 7.5 million tons over the previous year, accounting for 63% of the world total protein meal consumption. The growth rate of soybean meal consumption in 1995, 1996 and 1997 respectively reached 42%, 109% and 90% of the total increase of world protein meal consumption.
The demand for soybean meal is very wide. The European Union and the United States are the two largest consumer markets of soybean meal in the world. The consumption of soybean meal in the European Union is relatively stable, ranging from 22 million tons to 26 million tons; The United States is the world's largest producer of soybean meal and the world's largest consumer of soybean meal, with annual consumption ranging from 24 million tons to 27 million tons. During 1993-1997, the consumption of soybean meal in East Asian countries, such as South Korea, China, and Southeast Asian countries, grew rapidly, driving global consumption. However, after the outbreak of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, the consumption of soybean meal in East Asia was immediately weak and the demand was sluggish. Therefore, it can be said that the decisive factor governing global soybean meal consumption is the demand of East Asian countries.
（3） Overview of World Trade
1. Rapid growth of world soybean meal trade
After the 1980s, the world soybean meal trade developed rapidly. In 1982, the global soybean meal import and export volume both exceeded the 20 million ton mark, becoming an international agriculture products One of the bulk products in trade. At present, the annual trade volume of soybean meal in the world is more than 30 million tons.
2. The world soybean meal trade is characterized by export concentration
Due to the small domestic consumption of soybean meal in Brazil and Argentina, most of the soybean meal produced is used for export. Since Brazil replaced the United States as the world's largest soybean meal exporter in the early 1970s, its annual export volume has risen steadily. Since 1994, its annual export volume has exceeded 10 million tons for four consecutive years, accounting for 1/3 of the world's total soybean meal exports. Since the 1990s, the export volume of Argentine soybean meal has risen abruptly. In 1997, the export volume exceeded 8 million tons, a record high. At present, it is second only to Brazil, ranking second in the world. Although the annual output of American soybean meal ranks first in the world, due to the large consumption of domestic soybean meal, the export volume only accounts for about 1/5 of its total output. In recent years, India has come from behind in the international soybean meal trade and become a new force in soybean meal export.
3. The world soybean meal trade is characterized by decentralized imports
Different from the relative concentration of exporting countries, soybean meal importing countries are relatively dispersed. The EU is the largest buyer of soybean meal in the international market. For a long time, the import volume has been around 14 million tons, reaching a record 17 million tons in 1994, accounting for 59% of the world's total import volume that year. In recent years, the import momentum of soybean meal has weakened, but it still remains above 13 million tons. Before the disintegration of the former Soviet Union, it was also a major importer of soybean meal in the world. Since 1992, the import volume has decreased year by year. Before the Southeast Asian financial crisis broke out in 1997, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN countries maintained a strong momentum of growth in the import of soybean meal. After 1997, the import of soybean meal shrank, but the total volume was still large. China has traditionally been an exporter of soybean meal. The situation changed in 1996. Due to the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic market, the import volume rose sharply. In 1997, the import volume ranked second in the world.
2、 Overview of supply and demand of domestic soybean meal market
（1） Overview of domestic production
China is a major producer of soybean meal, ranking fourth in the world after the United States, Brazil and Argentina. The three northeastern provinces are the main soybean producing areas in China, and also the production base of soybean meal in China. In addition, Shandong, Hebei and Henan, the soybean meal output accounts for more than 90% of the national total. Before 1993/1994, China's soybean meal output has been maintained below 5 million tons. In 1993/1994, the domestic soybean meal output exceeded 5 million tons for the first time, reaching 6.385 million tons. After that, although the domestic soybean meal production was impacted by imported soybean meal, the output grew steadily.
（2） Domestic soybean meal consumption
The soybean meal market in China is characterized by production in the north and consumption in the south. The three northeastern provinces are the main soybean meal production areas in China, while the Pearl River Delta and the southeast coastal areas are the main soybean meal consumption areas. Soybean meal consumption is mainly concentrated in Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Hunan, Chongqing, Beijing and Shanghai.
With the gradual improvement of people's living standards, the consumption of meat, eggs, poultry, fish and other foods by urban and rural residents in China has increased significantly, promoting the rapid development of feed processing industry. The rapid increase in feed for poultry and high-quality lean meat pigs has stimulated the demand for high-quality protein feed. There are a lot of cake products in China, and the output of rapeseed and cottonseed cake is also very large, but these two kinds of cake can be used for feed only after detoxification. Therefore, soybean meal is the main high-quality meal used in China at present.
Since the mid-1990s, China's soybean meal production and demand has undergone significant changes, and domestic soybean meal production has been unable to meet consumer needs. Before 1994, China was a big exporter of soybean meal, and its annual export volume generally exceeded 1 million tons. In 1995, due to the decline of soybean production, the available oil beans decreased. The domestic production was close to 6.86 million tons, and the consumption was more than 6 million tons. The market supply and demand were balanced. In 1996, the domestic soybean for oil extraction was further reduced, but the import of soybean increased. The domestic soybean meal production recovered to 6.97 million tons, and the consumption exceeded 10 million tons. Only through a large number of imports can we meet the strong domestic demand. In 1997, the national soybean meal production reached 7.8 million tons and the consumption increased to nearly 11 million tons. In 1998, China's soybean meal production reached 8 million tons, and its consumption was about 12 million tons. In 1999, the domestic meat price fell, and the market demand for soybean meal declined, which is expected to decline slightly compared with 1998.
The development trend of soybean meal market mainly depends on the following factors: first, soybean resources, second, domestic feed demand, third, the import and export of soybean meal, and fourth, the import of fish meal. In recent years, the proportion of China's soybean meal and fish meal imports has changed significantly. In the total volume of both, the trade volume of soybean meal increased from 34% in 1995 to 80% in 1997. With the rapid development of China's breeding industry, soybean meal has become the main raw material of the feed industry. The production and consumption of soybean meal are directly affected by the prosperity of the breeding industry.
（3） Characteristics of China's soybean meal trade
1. Great changes from soybean meal exporting country to importing country
Before 1996, China's soybean meal production was greater than domestic consumption, and it was one of the major exporters in international trade. In 1994, 50% of the domestic soybean meal output was used for export. Later, with the improvement of people's living standards and the expansion of breeding scale, the demand of domestic breeding industry for soybean meal also rose sharply. The production cost of domestic soybean meal is high, the price of soybean meal in the international market is far lower than the domestic price, and a large amount of cheap soybean meal is imported into China.
In 1996, China changed from a net exporter to a net importer in international trade, with the import volume reaching 1.88 million tons. In 1997, the import of soybean meal reached 3.47 million tons, accounting for about half of the domestic soybean meal output. In 1998, the import volume of soybean and soybean meal reached a record 3.19 million tons and 3.73 million tons respectively. Since the second half of 1999, China has resumed levying value-added tax on imported soybean meal. In addition, the domestic breeding industry is depressed, and the import of soybean meal has declined sharply. The total import of soybean meal in the whole year was 570000 tons, down 84.6% from 1998.
2. Soybean meal imports are concentrated in the southern ports
Due to historical reasons, most of China's large and medium-sized oil refineries are in the north. Therefore, soybean imports are mostly in the northern ports, while the main consumption areas of soybean meal are in the south, and the import destinations are mostly in the southern ports. In 1998, the number of soybeans imported by ports north of the Yangtze River accounted for more than 80% of the national soybean imports (see Table 4-3). The southern ports are the main import ports of soybean meal. The main import ports are Shanghai, Guangzhou Huangpu, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Nanning, etc. In 1998, the import volume of southern ports accounted for 87% of the total import volume.
3. Imported soybean meal mainly comes from the United States, Brazil, Argentina and India
From the distribution of importing countries, the source countries of China's soybean meal imports are Brazil, India, the United States and Argentina.
4. The monthly distribution of soybean meal imports is relatively balanced
5. Quality comparison between imported soybean meal and domestic soybean meal
As foreign soybeans are produced on a mechanized scale, their quality is more stable and uniform than that of domestic soybeans planted by farmers in a decentralized manner. At the same time, foreign oil processing enterprises are large in scale, with advanced technology, equipment and processing technology. The processed soybean meal has a high protein content (44% - 48%) and stable quality. However, it takes about two months for imported soybean meal to be processed and delivered from the factory through multiple links such as transportation, port arrival, packaging, and finally used by domestic manufacturers, resulting in insufficient freshness. However, there is no clear basis for distinguishing imported soybean meal from domestic soybean meal in terms of sensory properties or chemical indicators.
（4） Analysis and prediction of comprehensive balance of domestic soybean meal
Since China imposed VAT on imported soybean meal, the quantity of imported soybean meal has dropped sharply, and the supply capacity of domestic soybean meal is under obvious pressure. In 1999/2000, China's soybean meal output is expected to reach 9.218 million tons, an increase of 1.077 million tons over the previous year. During this period, the import of soybean meal is expected to be about 600000 tons, and the annual supply of soybean meal is 9.818 million tons. The consumption of soybean meal in this year is estimated to be 10.51 million tons, and the annual balance is -692000 tons. In 2000/2001, the annual supply of soybean meal is expected to increase to 10.723 million tons. During this period, there may be a turnaround in feed and animal husbandry, which will significantly increase the consumption of soybean meal. It is expected that the annual consumption will reach 11.51 million tons at that time. Thus, the balance of the year will be - 787000 tons.
Supply and demand of soybean oil
（1） International market
Soybean oil plays an important role in the production and consumption of vegetable oil in the world. In recent years, the output and consumption of soybean oil in the world have shown an upward trend. In 2004, the consumption of soybean oil ranked first in the consumption of vegetable oil in the world. In the world vegetable oil trade, soybean oil trade also occupies a pivotal position.
1. Overview of the World Soybean Oil Spot Market
In 2004, the world output of soybean oil was equal to that of palm oil, ranking top two among all vegetable oils. The trade volume of soybean oil accounts for 23% of the total trade volume of vegetable oil in the world, ranking second in all kinds of vegetable oil.
2. Production
The United States, Brazil, Argentina and China are the world's major soybean producers. In 2004/05, the output of the four major producers accounted for 91% of the world's total output. It can be seen from Figures 3 and 4 that the major soybean producers are the major producers of soybean oil. In 2004/05, the output of soybean oil of the United States, Brazil, Argentina and China accounted for 27%, 17%, 16% and 17% of the world's total output respectively, The total output of the four countries accounts for 77% of the world's total soybean oil output. As a whole, the output of the EU is also relatively high, accounting for 8% of the world's total output.
3. Import and export
(1) Export situation
While the total output of world soybean oil is growing, the world soybean oil trade volume is also rising. In 2004/05, the world's soybean oil export reached 9.33 million tons, an increase of 193% over 1993/94. Among them, Argentina's export volume grew very fast, increasing by 248% in 2004/05 compared with 1993/94, accounting for 53% of the world's total soybean oil exports from 30%, and its position as the world's largest soybean oil exporter has been increasingly consolidated; Brazil and the United States also have large export volumes. In 2004/05, the soybean oil exports of the two countries accounted for 25% and 7% of the world's total soybean oil exports.
(2) Imports
In the past ten years, the world's soybean oil import has undergone significant changes, with the import volume increasing rapidly. Compared with 1993/94, 2004/05 increased by 191%. The most obvious change is India, whose import volume was 29000 tons in 1993/94 and 1358000 tons in 2001/02, accounting for 19% of the world's total import volume. China is also an important soybean oil importing country. Except for 2000/01 and 2001/02, China's soybean oil imports accounted for more than 10% of the world's total soybean oil imports during 1993/94 - 2004/05. China's soybean oil imports increased rapidly in 2003/04, more than double that of 2002/03.
4. Consumption
In recent years, the consumption of soybean oil in the world has been increasing year by year, and has become one of the largest vegetable oil varieties in the world. After the soybean oil consumption exceeded 20 million tons in 1996/97, the soybean oil consumption increased to 31.93 million tons in 2004/05. The EU, the United States and China are the main countries and regions with increased soybean oil consumption.
（2） Domestic market
China is the first country in the world to use soybean to extract oil, with a history of nearly one thousand years. At present, China is still a major producer and consumer of soybean oil in the world. In 2004/05, the output of soybean oil was 5.77 million tons and the consumption was 7.85 million tons. In recent years, the soybean oil market is more active, and the market price changes more violently.
1. Production of soybean oil
(1) Overview of soybean oil production
China is one of the four largest soybean oil producers in the world. Since the 1980s, China's soybean oil production has grown rapidly, from less than 1 million tons to more than 5 million tons at present.
1983-1987 was a period of rapid growth in the consumption of vegetable oil in China. There was a gap in production and marketing. We must rely on imports to ease the contradiction between domestic supply and demand. In 1990, the Chinese government raised the oil purchase price, which stimulated the development of soybean production and soybean oil processing industry. After the liberalization of the oil market in 1993, the number and scale of soybean processing plants continued to expand, which increased the domestic soybean oil output to 8-1 million tons. With the increase of the number of imported soybeans, the number of soybeans available for oil extraction in China has increased significantly, and the output of soybean oil has grown rapidly, reaching 5.77 million tons in 2004/05.
(2) Distribution of soybean oil production
China's soybean oil production is widely distributed. In most of the last century, China's soybean oil production was mainly concentrated in Heilongjiang Province and other major soybean producing areas. In recent years, many soybean processing plants have been built in the southern coastal areas, which mostly use imported soybeans for processing. Among them, Jiangsu, Shandong, Liaoning, Guangdong and other four provinces and regions are the regions with the most concentrated oil pressing capacity.
(3) Soybean oil production enterprises
According to the statistical data of 2004/05, there are 596 oil and fat enterprises that use the extraction process to process soybeans in China, with a daily soybean crushing capacity of nearly 300000 tons, of which 87 are large-scale oil plants that press more than 1000 tons of soybeans a day, with a daily soybean crushing capacity of nearly 194800 tons. In addition, there are a large number of small-scale oil mills and oil workshops in China, more than 2000.
2. Soybean oil trade
The per capita output of soybeans in China is low, and there has always been a gap in the supply of soybean oil. Since the 1990s, China's import of soybean oil has increased year by year. From 1993/94 to 1997/98, it once exceeded 1 million tons, and then gradually stabilized. In 2003/04, the import volume was nearly 3 million tons. In sharp contrast, China's soybean oil export volume is very small. In recent years, the average annual export volume is about 50000 tons.
From the perspective of the main countries importing soybean oil, Argentina and Brazil are the main source countries of China's soybean oil imports. In recent years, more than 90% of China's soybean oil imports come from these two countries, while the import of soybean oil from the United States has declined significantly.
3. Circulation of soybean oil
Soybean processing enterprises in China are mainly distributed in Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Beijing Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and Guangdong. In actual sales, most soybean processing enterprises will sell nearby, with limited radiation range. However, in the southwest, due to the small number of local soybean processing enterprises, some soybean oil from East China and Guangdong will be sold here.
The sales radiation range of soybean oil is mainly restricted by expenses, among which the transportation cost is an important factor affecting the sales expenses. In recent years, with the gradual reduction of railway transportation costs, the sales area and radiation range of soybean oil are showing a trend of steady expansion.
As the sales price becomes more transparent and the profit of intermediate dealers becomes lower and lower, the original trading companies are gradually fading out of the circulation of soybean oil. At present, more and more soybean processing plants directly deliver soybean oil to terminal distributors or users.
4. Consumption of soybean oil
At the beginning of the 1990s, China's soybean oil consumption was only 1 million tons. Influenced by various factors, the consumption of soybean oil grew rapidly, increasing nearly six times in more than ten years, reaching more than 7 million tons in 2004/05. At present, soybean oil has become the largest vegetable oil variety in China.
Soybean oil is mainly used for food in China, accounting for more than 85% of the total consumption, of which cooking oil accounts for the vast majority. Soybean oil has some uses in industry and medicine, but the amount is small, generally accounting for 10-15% of the total consumption of soybean oil. Food consumption is the main factor driving the growth of total consumption. From the situation in the past few years, although China's soybean oil production has increased year by year, it cannot keep up with the growth rate of consumption, and the gap between supply and demand can only be balanced by imports.
