influence cotton The factors of spot price mainly include the following aspects:

(1) Policy

Generally speaking, the impact of policies on prices is very short-term, but sometimes very intense. The policy factors affecting the spot price of cotton mainly include:

① The macro policies of the government. Including political and economic policies, such as agricultural policies, foreign trade policies, financial policies, securities policies, etc., will have an impact on cotton futures prices. While analyzing the impact of major national macroeconomic policies on cotton futures prices, we should also analyze the impact of policies issued by the State Council and other functional departments on cotton prices.

② Industry organization policy. The role of industry organizations in the market economy has become increasingly obvious, and their industrial policies sometimes affect the production scale, output, sales volume and relative price of cotton.

③ National reserve plan. The influence of auction, purchase volume and purchase price of national reserve cotton on cotton price.

④ Agricultural subsidy policies and textile import and export policies of various countries. Textile export policies and cotton quota policies affect domestic cotton prices. International cotton prices are closely related to cotton subsidies.

(2) Output

For cotton used for futures delivery, the current yield is a variable, which is mainly affected by the current sowing area and unit yield. Under the condition that the sown area is fixed, due to the long growth cycle of cotton, it is greatly affected by climate change. The climate factors in the critical period of cotton growth affect the growth of cotton, which will then affect the yield per unit area. Generally speaking, the sown area of cotton is mainly affected by the cotton price of the previous year. If the cotton price of the previous year is high, the sown area of this year will increase, otherwise, the sown area will decrease. After fully studying the changes of cotton planting area, climate conditions, growth conditions, production costs, national agricultural policies and other factors, investors will have a more reasonable prediction of the current yield.

(3) Previous inventory

It is the main component of the total supply. The amount of inventory in the early stage reflects the tightness of the supply in the early stage. If the supply is short, the price will rise. If the supply is sufficient, the price will fall.

(4) Import and export volume

In the case of a fixed production and early inventory, the import and export volume actually directly changes the amount of supply. The greater the import volume, the greater the domestic supply, and the domestic market price may fall; The larger the export volume, the smaller the domestic supply, and the domestic market price may rise. Therefore, investors should pay close attention to the changes in the actual import volume, and try to timely understand and grasp the international cotton situation, price level, changes in import policies, etc.

(5) Domestic consumption.

The domestic consumption of cotton is not a constant, it is constantly changing and affected by many factors. There are mainly: changes in consumer purchasing power; Population growth and changes in consumption structure; Government revenue and employment policy. 95% of China's cotton is used for spinning, and Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan and Hubei are the main consumption provinces of cotton.

(6) Weather

One of the important reasons why the price of new cotton rose sharply after it came into the market in 2003 was the bad weather and excessive rainfall during the harvest period. Therefore, from the situation over the years, the weather conditions in August, September and October are the key factors to determine the cotton yield and quality, and also the primary factor to be concerned about when investing in cotton futures.

　 (7) National reserves

The cotton industry is a labor-intensive industry, with more than 200 million people employed. The price of cotton is directly related to the income of farmers and workers in cotton textile enterprises. Therefore, it is very important to do a good job in macro-control of the cotton market and ensure reasonable fluctuations in cotton prices. After the opening of the cotton market, China's cotton reserves and import and export policies have become the two main tools to adjust cotton prices. In 1984, China's cotton reserves reached 4.3 million tons. At the end of the 1990s, China's cotton prices remained high. In order to meet the processing needs of cotton textile enterprises, China sold a large number of cotton reserves, which fell to the lowest point, close to zero.

(8) Alternatives

Chemical fiber is the main substitute for cotton yarn. The change in the price of chemical fiber (polyester staple) directly affects the demand for cotton yarn, and indirectly affects the demand and price of cotton. In 2003, the domestic cotton price rose, which led to the rise of cotton yarn price and the increase of demand for chemical fiber. In the previous period, the crude oil price continued to rise horizontally, and the upstream raw materials were shortened PTA The price of polyester and MEG is also rising, which has become the main driving force for polyester short price to rise all the way. The polyester short market is rising, and the sales pressure is increasing.

(9) International market

① World cotton production and stocks. The output and inventory of cotton are the two main factors of cotton supply, which are inversely related to cotton prices. Since 1961, the world cotton area has basically fluctuated between 450 million mu and 500 million mu. Due to the improvement of science and technology, the per unit area yield of cotton has been increasing, and the total world cotton output has increased from 10 million tons to about 25 million tons. Cotton production is concentrated in China, the United States, India, Pakistan and other countries.

② World economic growth and demand for cotton textiles. The world economic situation has a great impact on cotton import and export and cotton prices. Developed countries are important demanders of cotton textiles. The macroeconomic situation of developed countries has improved. The increase in demand for cotton textiles will lead to an increase in cotton prices. In short, cotton prices are highly correlated with the world economic situation.