2、 China's cotton production

　　 （1） Importance of cotton

Cotton is a strategic material related to the national economy and the people's livelihood, and it is also the second largest crop after food. Cotton is a commodity involving agriculture and textile industry. It is the main source of income of more than 100 million cotton farmers nationwide, the main raw material of textile industry, and the daily necessities of the people. Cotton yarn, cotton cloth, and clothing are also important commodities for export to earn foreign exchange. Cotton can also be used to make tire cord, gunpowder and medical cotton. Therefore, the production, circulation, processing and consumption of cotton are closely related to the people's lives and the interests of cotton farmers, and also have an important impact on the development of the national economy.

　　 （2） Distribution and regionalization of cotton production areas

1. Distribution of cotton production areas in China. China has a wide range of regions suitable for cotton planting. The range of cotton areas is roughly 18-46 degrees north latitude and 76-124 degrees east longitude, that is, from Hainan Island in the south to Manas Reclamation Area in Xinjiang in the north, from Taiwan Province, the coastal zone of the Yangtze River Delta and the Liaohe River Basin in the east to the western edge of the Tarim Basin in Xinjiang in the west. Except for Tibet, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jilin and other minority provinces (autonomous regions), Can grow cotton. In 2003, the provinces with cotton output of more than 200000 tons included Xinjiang (1.6 million tons), Henan (376700 tons), Shandong (877000 tons), Jiangsu (291000 tons), Hebei (409000 tons), Hubei (325000 tons) and Anhui (290000 tons).

Figure 1: Distribution map of China's main cotton producing areas Source: China Agricultural Information Network.

2. Cotton regionalization in China. China has a wide range of cotton regions. According to the requirements of cotton for ecological conditions, combined with the characteristics of cotton production, as well as the distribution of cotton regions, socio-economic conditions and cotton planting history, the country is divided into three major cotton regions: the Yangtze River basin cotton region, the Yellow River basin cotton region and Xinjiang cotton region.

Cotton area in the Yangtze River basin. Including 8 provinces and cities in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Hubei, Anhui, Sichuan, Jiangxi and Hunan, the planting area has decreased steadily in recent years (see Table 5).

Yellow River cotton area. Including Henan, Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Liaoning, the planting area has increased steadily in recent years (see Table 5).

Xinjiang cotton region. Including Xinjiang and Hexi Corridor, the planting area has increased steadily. Xinjiang cotton is famous for its long fiber, white color and strong tension. It is a newly developed cotton area with the most development potential in China. Xinjiang is rich in water, soil, light and heat resources. The climate is dry with little rain. The conditions for cotton planting are unique. In recent years, the cotton planting area has increased rapidly (see Table 5). From the perspective of planting areas, Xinjiang has initially formed three cotton producing regions, namely, the southern Xinjiang cotton region, the northern Xinjiang cotton region and the eastern Xinjiang cotton region. The southern Xinjiang cotton region is the main cotton production area in Xinjiang. Its cotton output accounts for about 80% of that of the Xinjiang cotton region. It is also the most suitable cotton planting area in China and the production base of long staple cotton. The second is the northern Xinjiang, and the third is the eastern Xinjiang. For ten consecutive years, Xinjiang has ranked first in terms of total cotton production, per unit yield, per capita occupancy, and export volume (see Figure 2).

In addition to the three major cotton producing areas, Beijing, Tianjin, Gansu, Guangxi, Yunnan and other places also have scattered planting, but their total output accounts for less than 1% of the total cotton output in China.

Table 5: Statistical Table of Changes in China's Cotton Production Areas

time	one thousand nine hundred and fifty-eight	one thousand nine hundred and sixty-eight	one thousand nine hundred and seventy-eight	one thousand nine hundred and eighty-eight	one thousand nine hundred and ninety-eight
Xinjiang cotton region	2%	4%	3%	7%	31%
Yangtze River cotton region	60%	44%	47%	60%	35%
Yellow River cotton area	38%	52%	50%	33%	34%
total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Source: China Cotton Network.

Figure 2: Output and proportion of major cotton producing provinces in China since 1996/1997

　　 （3） Cotton growth stages and influencing factors

It takes about half a year from sowing to harvesting for cotton, which usually goes through the sowing, seedling, bud, flower and boll stages and boll opening stages. 1. Sowing date. Choosing a timely sowing date is an important link to determine the high yield of cotton. Cotton seed germination and seedling emergence need certain external environmental conditions, mainly suitable temperature, water, oxygen, soil, etc., of which the decisive factor is temperature. Cotton is a temperature sensitive crop, which requires a higher temperature when it sprouts. According to the research results, the minimum critical temperature for germination is 10.5 ℃ - 12 ℃, the optimum temperature is 28 ℃ - 30 ℃, and the maximum temperature is 40 ℃ - 45 ℃. When the temperature is within the critical range, the higher the temperature, the faster the germination. For example, it takes 11 days at 12 ℃, 7 days at 13 ℃, 2 days at 16 ℃, and only 8 hours at 35 ℃ - 40 ℃. Although germination is fast under high temperature, cotton seedlings are not robust, so the germination temperature of cotton seedlings cannot be too high. Under natural ground temperature, cotton planting in the Yellow River basin is generally in the middle of April; If the previous crop is planted in time, the cotton area in the Yangtze River basin can be sown in the first ten days of April; Xinjiang cotton region generally sows between April 15 and April 25. After the cotton is sown, the date of emergence mainly determines the temperature and moisture of the soil at this time. Under normal circumstances, it takes 10-15 days for the cotton area in the Yellow River basin to emerge, 7-10 days for the cotton area in the Yangtze River basin, and about 15 days for the cotton area in Xinjiang.

2. Seedling stage. Seedling stage refers to the period from emergence to budding of cotton. The cotton areas in the Yellow River basin generally start from the end of April, early May to the first and middle of June, and the cotton areas in the Yangtze River basin start from the last ten days of April to the first ten days of June. Cotton seedling stage is a vegetative growth stage, and the main environmental factor affecting cotton seedling is temperature. Cotton seedlings are weak and small, with poor stress resistance, and are prone to disease, death or late emergence of "small and old seedlings", mostly caused by low temperature. Different seedling ages have different tolerance to low temperature. The following table lists the damage degree of cotton seedlings within 10 days under different degrees of low temperature. In addition to temperature, if there is continuous rain, too much water and lack of light during this period, it will also cause cotton seedlings to compete for light, form tall, thin and weak seedlings, delay the growth period, and even seriously affect the root development, forming rotten seeds, rotten buds and seedling diseases.

3. Bud stage. Cotton bud stage refers to the period from budding to flowering. Generally from the first half of June to the first ten days of July. The growth level of cotton in bud stage directly affects the ability to resist disasters and the final economic yield in the middle and later stages, which is an important stage for the parallel development of vegetative growth and reproductive growth and root development. As the cotton buds usually appear in the first half of June, the temperature is high, and the amount of rainfall is the key factor to determine the number of buds. At this time, the perennial rainfall in northern cotton areas is small, but the temperature has increased, and the soil moisture evaporation is large, which often affects cotton growth due to drought. At the beginning of the rainy season at the peak of budding season, the soil moisture increases, and the fertilizer effect gradually develops. At this time, cotton plants are prone to overgrowth; The south is in the plum rain season, which is easy to lead to vigorous growth. In case of empty plum or dry plum, high temperature and drought will seriously affect cotton growth.

Table 6: Low temperature tolerance of different seedling ages

seedling stage	temperature	Duration (hours)	Extent of victimization
Just unearthed	0 - 1	one	Occurrence of frost damage
Just unearthed	-2 - -3	one	Seedling death
Seedling age 4 days	zero	1-2	Slight frost damage
Seedling age 8 days	zero	three	Slight frost damage
Seedling age 10 days	zero	2-3	50% seedling death

　　 Source: Cotton Disaster and Disaster Prevention and Reduction Technology, written by Zhang Cunxin, published by China Agricultural Science and Technology Press, November 2001, page 59.

In addition to temperature, if there is continuous rain, too much water and lack of light during this period, it will also cause cotton seedlings to compete for light, form tall, thin and weak seedlings, delay the growth period, and even seriously affect the root development, forming rotten seeds, rotten buds and seedling diseases.

4. Flower and boll stage. The flowering and boll stage refers to the period from flowering to boll opening, generally from early July to the end of August and early September. The flowering and boll setting stage is in the process of economic yield formation, occupies a decisive position, and is the key period to determine the yield and quality. This stage can be divided into the first flowering stage and the full flowering and boll setting stage according to its growth characteristics. The flowering and boll stage is the period when cotton needs the most water in its life. Cotton plants are sensitive to water, such as water imbalance, blocked metabolic process, a large number of buds and bolls fall off, and cause premature aging, which seriously affects cotton growth process.

5. Opening period. The boll opening period refers to a long period from the beginning of boll opening to the arrival of dry frost and the end of fertility. Generally, the boll opening starts in late August and early September and lasts for 70-80 days, which is the main stage of cotton fiber growth and development. The main factors affecting cotton yield and quality in this period are: continuous rainy weather aggravates cotton boll rot, cold autumn year makes cotton green and late mature, fiber development is poor, etc. Cotton blooms, bolls, matures, and bolls in succession. At the beginning of boll opening, Fu peach is gradually maturing, autumn peach is forming and growing, the vegetative growth of cotton plant has declined, the reproductive growth is gradually slow, and the absorption capacity of root system is gradually declining. At this time, sufficient sunshine, higher temperature and lower humidity are required to accelerate the conversion of carbon and water compounds, promote the formation of fat and cellulose, and accelerate the drying of boll shells, It is conducive to cotton boll cracking and boll opening. Due to the vast area suitable for cotton in China, the meteorological conditions in each cotton region are quite different. The following three tables (Table 7, Table 8 and Table 9) list the basic conditions of temperature, moisture and light in each cotton growing month in each cotton region.

Table 7: Thermal environment in different cotton areas (℃)

Cotton area	Frost free period (days)	Accumulated temperature (>/10 degrees)	April	May	June	July	August	September	October
Yangtze river basin	220-302	4517-5862	fifteen point six	twenty	twenty-four point eight	twenty-eight point two	twenty-seven point seven	twenty-three point two	seventeen point four
Yellow River Basin	190-221	4395-4797	thirteen point three	twenty point one	twenty-five	twenty-six point seven	twenty-five point six	twenty point two	fourteen point one
Northern Xinjiang	156-189	3141-3589	eleven	seventeen point nine	twenty-two point eight	twenty-four point nine	twenty-three point one	sixteen point nine	eight point one
Eastern and Southern Xinjiang	214-279	4193-5455	sixteen point one	twenty-one point nine	twenty-six point two	twenty-seven point nine	twenty-six point four	twenty point seven	eleven point eight

Source: Same as Table 6, page 75.  

Table 8: Water environment in different cotton areas (rainfall mm)

Cotton area	April	May	June	July	August	September	October
Yangtze river basin	one hundred and seventeen point four	one hundred and forty-three point nine	one hundred and forty-nine point four	one hundred and sixty-four point six	one hundred and twenty-seven point eight	one hundred and twelve point seven	sixty-five point six
Yellow River Basin	forty-two point three	forty-eight point seven	seventy point four	one hundred and seventy-five point five	one hundred and thirty-six point six	seventy point four	thirty-eight point four
Northern Xinjiang	thirteen point one	fourteen point seven	fifteen point six	sixteen point seven	twenty-one point three	eleven	seven point three
Eastern and Southern Xinjiang	three point one	six point three	six point one	seven point two	five point two	two point nine	zero point nine

Source: Same as Table 6, page 78.  

Table 9: Sunshine conditions in different cotton areas (sunshine%)

Cotton area	April	May	June	July	August	September	October
Yangtze river basin	forty-two point nine	forty-six point three	forty-one point seven	fifty point seven	fifty-one point seven	fifty-four point one	fifty-two point six
Yellow River Basin	fifty-four point one	fifty-seven point nine	sixty point six	fifty-nine point two	fifty-seven point six	fifty-nine point four	fifty-eight point six
Northern Xinjiang	sixty-three point five	sixty-seven	sixty-nine point three	sixty-seven point five	seventy-two	seventy-five	seventy-three point eight
Eastern and Southern Xinjiang	fifty-nine point six	sixty-four point two	sixty-eight	sixty-six point six	seventy point four	seventy-three point two	seventy-five point eight

Source: Same as Table 6, page 81.  

　　 （4） Impact of major disasters on cotton growth

There are two kinds of disasters that affect the growth and development of cotton. One is meteorological disasters, such as rain, hail, drought, etc; First, diseases and insect pests, such as cotton wilt, cotton boll disease, various insect pests, etc.

1. Rain and waterlogging. Rain and waterlogging disasters are frequent and seasonal serious natural disasters, which may cause cotton yield reduction in the light or crop failure in the heavy. The cotton areas in the Yangtze River basin generally experience floods from July to August, while the cotton areas in the Yellow River basin generally experience floods from June to August. Different degrees of rain and waterlogging have different effects on cotton seedlings (see Table 10).

Table 10: Impact of rain and hail on cotton in China

		Slight hazard	Moderately hazardous	Severe hazard	Serious hazard	Extra serious hazard
Waterlogging	degree	Flooding for 10-24 hours, timely drainage	Flooding for 2-3 days without flooding the whole cotton plant	Flooding for 2-3 days, accumulated water 40-50cm	Flooding for more than 4-5 days, submerging cotton plants	Flooding for more than 5 days
		Severe withering, young buds falling off, leaves yellowing, basically no dead seedlings	Buds, flowers and leaves fall off seriously, with slight dead seedlings	More than 70% of cotton plants have no top, most buds and flowers fall off, and the dead seedling rate is about 20%	80% of cotton plants die at the top, leaves, flowers and buds all fall off, roots become black, and the mortality rate is 50%	Basic death of cotton
	Impact on yield	Basically no production reduction	Slight production reduction	Reduce production by 30% - 40%	Large production reduction	property left without an inheritor
hail	degree	The stem and leaf are damaged, the main stem is intact, and the fruit branches are smashed less than 10%, which is before the full flowering period	The deciduous leaves are severely damaged, the main stem is intact, the rate of broken branches of fruit branches is less than 30%, and the rate of broken heads is less than 50%, which is around the initial flowering stage	No blade; The main stem is basically unbroken, the leaf nodes are intact, the axillary buds are complete, and the rate of broken branches is more than 60%, and the rate of broken heads is 50-70% In bud	No leaves, no fruit branches, bare stems, less than 50% of the main stem epidermis is broken, more than 30% of the axillary buds are intact, and most of the leaf nodes are intact	Smooth stem, the main stem breaking rate is more than 50%, most leaf nodes are broken, and axillary buds are less than 30%
	Impact on yield	Basically no production reduction	Slight production reduction	Reduce production by 30% - 40%	Large production reduction	property left without an inheritor

2. Hail. Hail damage is widespread in China, and major cotton producing areas have suffered hail disasters of varying degrees over the years. In China's cotton producing areas, hail falls before April are mainly concentrated in the Qinling Mountains and areas south of the Huaihe River; From April to May, the hail area expands from south to north. The hail area is the most extensive in June, when the cotton area is in bud or early flower stage, which has a great impact on cotton growth. After June, hail areas are mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest and Northeast China. Because cotton has unlimited growth and strong regeneration, the hail disaster with a lower degree has less impact on cotton. If the hail is severe and it is in a critical period of cotton growth, cotton production will also be reduced or even cut off (see Table 10).

3. Drought. Due to the drought in winter and spring all the year round in the cotton region of the Yellow River basin, it has a greater impact on cotton during the seeding and emergence period; In the cotton region of the Yangtze River basin, the drought in summer and autumn had a greater impact on cotton; The annual rainfall in Xinjiang cotton region is relatively small, and drought often occurs in cotton fields, which requires irrigation for cotton planting.

4. Diseases and pests. In the process of cotton growth, many diseases and pests will affect the growth and development of cotton at any time. In different periods of cotton growth, the types of diseases and pests are different. Low temperature and rainy weather are the main causes of cotton seedling diseases and insect pests. At present, there are more than 20 kinds of seedling diseases found in China, such as damping off, anthrax, etc., which cause seedling shortage and ridge breaking in cotton fields, and seriously affect cotton yield. Cotton plants are mainly affected by the following diseases and pests.

(1) Cotton wilt and verticillium wilt. Wilt and verticillium wilt easily occur in cotton fields with low temperature and high humidity. Generally, the disease occurs in June when there are 4 or 5 true leaves of cotton seedlings. In July and August, the disease worsens from bud appearance to flowering and boll setting, causing a large number of diseased leaves to wither, accompanied by the shedding of buds and bolls. In rainy years, with high humidity and low temperature in summer, Fusarium wilt occurs rapidly, and the number of diseased plants increases exponentially, causing serious damage.

(2) Cotton red leaf stem blight. It is mainly caused by the imbalance of fertilizer and water in the flowering and boll setting stages, and insufficient nutrition, especially the lack of potassium fertilizer, which generally occurs at the beginning of the bud stage, the flowering stage, the boll stage, and the boll stage.

(3) Cotton boll disease. Cotton boll disease is common in China, resulting in rotten bolls and stiff petals. In rainy years, the percentage of rotten bolls in cotton areas of the Yangtze River and Yellow River reaches 10-30%. Compared with healthy bolls, the weight of seed cotton, lint percentage, lint, lint length, lint length, lint length, lint length, and strength of cotton are reduced by 40.8%, 22.8%, 53.5%, 23.4%, and 49.3% respectively, seriously affecting the yield and quality of cotton. Long rain and high temperature during boll period are the main reasons for cotton boll disease. In general, if it rains for 3-5 days or more than 10-20 mm for 3-5 days, a large number of rotten bolls will appear in the field. The rainfall and rainy days from August to September are the key factors determining the boll disease throughout the year. The survey shows that the rate of rotten bolls varies with the rainfall in this period. The more rainy days, the more rainfall, the more serious the rotten bolls, and the less serious the rotten bolls. In the cotton area of the Yellow River basin, July August is 40-50 days after the first batch of cotton bolls are bolled. The rainy season is concentrated, the temperature is high, the humidity is high, and the rotten bolls are very easy to occur. In the cotton area of the Yangtze River basin, the autumn rain usually occurs in August September, so the boll rot starts and its peak period is later than that in the north. However, due to the number of days that the humid and hot environment lasts, the boll rot is often more serious than that in the north. Xinjiang cotton region has less rainfall and sufficient heat in this period, so the boll rot disaster is not easy to occur in normal years.

In addition to the main meteorological disasters, diseases and pests that affect cotton growth and development described above, there are also many factors such as strong wind, sand dust and freeze damage that will also affect cotton yield and quality.

　　 （5） China's cotton output

Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the contradiction between supply and demand of cotton in China has been quite prominent. Before the 1980s, due to backward production conditions, the cotton yield per unit area was low, and the total output was basically below 2.5 million tons (2.562 million tons in 1973). Due to the small output, the domestic market was in short supply, and the annual import of cotton was large. In 1979, the cotton import volume reached 918900 tons. In this period, supply was in short supply. After the 1980s, due to the implementation of the contract responsibility system, the enthusiasm of cotton production was mobilized, and the output increased rapidly. By 1984, the cotton output reached an all-time high of 6.26 million tons, while the consumption capacity at that time was only about 3 million tons, and the market was relatively surplus. After 1985, China's cotton textile industry developed rapidly. By 1989, the annual cotton consumption reached about 4 million tons, while the cotton production declined. In 1989, the cotton output was only 3.79 million tons, and the cotton import volume reached 400000 tons. Since the 1990s, cotton production has been relatively stable. Except for 1993 and 1999 in special years, cotton production in other years has been around 4.5 million tons, basically meeting the needs of production and management (see Table XI).

Table XI: Statistics of China's cotton production in recent years

particular year	Sowing area (10000 mu)	Unit yield (kg/mu)	Total output (10000 tons)
one thousand nine hundred and ninety	eight thousand three hundred and eighty-two point two zero	fifty-three point eight	four hundred and fifty-one
one thousand nine hundred and ninety-one	nine thousand eight hundred and eight	fifty-seven point nine	five hundred and sixty-eight
one thousand nine hundred and ninety-two	ten thousand two hundred and fifty-three	forty-four	four hundred and fifty-one
one thousand nine hundred and ninety-three	seven thousand four hundred and seventy-eight	fifty point three	three hundred and seventy-six
one thousand nine hundred and ninety-four	eight thousand two hundred and ninety-two	fifty-one point three	four hundred and twenty-five
one thousand nine hundred and ninety-five	eight thousand one hundred and thirty-two	fifty-eight point five	four hundred and seventy-six
one thousand nine hundred and ninety-six	seven thousand and eighty-three point four zero	fifty-nine point three	four hundred and twenty point three two
one thousand nine hundred and ninety-seven	six thousand seven hundred and thirty-six point eight zero	sixty-eight point three	four hundred and sixty point two eight
one thousand nine hundred and ninety-eight	six thousand six hundred and eighty-nine point one zero	sixty-seven point three	four hundred and fifty point one zero
one thousand nine hundred and ninety-nine	five thousand six hundred and twenty-two point five zero	sixty-eight point one	three hundred and eighty-two point eight zero
two thousand	five thousand and four hundred	eighty-one point eight	four hundred and forty-one point seven zero
two thousand and one	seven thousand two hundred and fourteen point six one	seventy-three point eight nine	five hundred and thirty-two point three five
two thousand and two	six thousand seven hundred and twenty	seventy-eight point four seven	four hundred and ninety-two
two thousand and three	seven thousand six hundred and sixty-five	sixty-three point five four	four hundred and eighty-seven
two thousand and four	eight thousand five hundred and forty-one	seventy-four point zero six	six hundred and thirty-two

Source: Data from 1990 to 2000 are from China Agricultural Yearbook, 1991-2002 edition; The data from 2002 to 2004 are from the statistical bulletin of the National Bureau of Statistics in 2003.

（6） Introduction to transgenic cotton

Since the 1990s, due to the continuous occurrence or outbreak of cotton bollworm in most of China's cotton regions, it has posed a huge threat to cotton production. Cotton farmers turned pale when talking about "insects". In 1992 alone, it caused direct economic losses of more than 6 billion yuan and indirect losses of more than 10 billion yuan, which had a great impact on the development of the entire national economy. At the same time, due to the outbreak of cotton bollworm, the production cost of cotton increased and the comparative benefit of cotton planting decreased due to the prevention and control of pests.

Many years of research and practice at home and abroad have shown that cotton bollworm is omnivorous and harmful (including cotton, corn, peanuts, beans, melons, vegetables, etc.), and has strong reproductive potential. Long term use of chemical pesticides in large quantities can lead to increased resistance, massive killing of natural enemies, ecological imbalance, and a vicious circle. Thailand and Vietnam are cotton planting countries in history. Due to years of excessive use of chemical pesticides, it is difficult to control them. In recent years, cotton planting plans have been basically canceled, and there is no obvious sign of recovery. In the 1960s and 1970s, the former Soviet Union used chemical pesticides to control cotton bollworm about 15 times a year, causing serious environmental pollution in major cotton growing areas. In the case that diseases and pests seriously affect cotton production and the ecological environment, governments of all countries are trying to find effective ways to control cotton bollworm and other diseases and pests. In 1990, the United States made use of biotechnology to synthesize B. t insecticidal gene and import cotton to obtain insect resistant transgenic cotton, becoming the first country in the world to have transgenic insect resistant cotton. The research on "insect resistant cotton" in China began during the "Seventh Five Year Plan" period. During the "Eighth Five Year Plan" period, under the support of the "863" program, the artificially synthesized CryIA (b) and CryIA (c) insecticidal genes were successfully introduced into the main cotton varieties in China, becoming the second country after the United States to independently develop insect resistant cotton. At the beginning of the Ninth Five Year Plan, the research on "insect resistant cotton" has been set up as a major project by the National "863" Plan, and further research on univalent, bivalent and multivalent genes of insect resistant cotton will be carried out, Genetic separation and stability are studied in depth. In a word, we should cultivate durable bivalent insect resistant cotton or multivalent insect resistant cotton that is resistant to both lepidoptera and homoptera pests, industrialize it and apply it to cotton production, so as to solve the huge losses caused by cotton pests to cotton production, reduce the use of chemical pesticides, and protect the environment and ecological balance.

At present, many varieties of domestic transgenic insect resistant cotton have been approved. In May and July 1998, GK95-1 and GK-1 passed the variety certification respectively and were named "Jinmian 26" and "Guokang 1". In January 1999, GK-12 also passed the variety certification in Shandong Province and was named "Guokang 12". In November 2000, GK22 was approved by Jiangsu Crop Variety Approval Committee and named "Guokang 22". At the beginning of 2001, GK19 was approved by Xinjiang Autonomous Region Variety Approval Committee. In March 2001, SGK321 was approved by the Hebei Provincial Variety Approval Committee, and on January 27, 2002, it was approved by the National Insect resistant Cotton Variety Approval, becoming the only bivalent insect resistant cotton variety approved in China at present, and the first new transgenic insect resistant cotton variety approved in the world. Prior to this, SGK321 has passed the safety evaluation of agricultural genetically modified organisms and has been approved for commercial production in Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong, Henan and Anhui.

According to the production test results organized by the state in 2000-2001, SGK321 is obviously superior to other varieties in terms of early maturity, growth period of only 128 days, high plant height, compact plant type, good light transmittance and outstanding insect resistance. The leaf size is moderate, the leaf color is deep, the stem is tough, the growth is strong in the early and middle stages, the growth is general in the later stages, the uniformity is good, the flowers and bolls are concentrated, the bolls are open, the lint percentage is high, and the fertility is good. The first node of the fruit branch is 6.8, the pre frost flower rate is 90.8%, the plant height is 91.0 cm, the boll weight is 5.17 g, and the lint percentage is 39.8%. Before frost, the lint yield per mu is 75.4kg, which is equivalent to 93.4% of the control insect resistant hybrid (the first year is the 29 of the China Cotton Institute, and the second year is the 38 of the China Cotton Institute). Fiber quality: white color, average length of 29.2mm, specific strength of 29.4cm N/tex, micronaire value of 4.8.

In addition to the research on transgenic disease resistant and insect resistant cotton, China is also carrying out other aspects of transgenic research, such as the closest animal keratin transgenic cotton, which was first invented by Professor Chen Xiaoya, a Chinese scientist, that is, the keratin of rabbits and wool is converted into cotton fiber, and has obtained a national patent. Animal keratin gene is introduced into cotton fiber to make it express specifically, so that cotton fiber can be improved with good luster, soft hand feel, good elasticity, strong warmth retention and other characteristics, which not only retains the natural essence of traditional cotton, but also has the quality of rabbit and wool. 

　　 3、 China's cotton circulation and consumption

　　 （1） Use of cotton

Cotton is mainly supplied directly to the cotton textile industry. The self use part of cotton farmers is generally limited to cotton wadding, and the consumption is relatively stable. Therefore, the commodity rate of cotton is very high. The development of cotton textile industry constitutes the basic pattern of cotton demand. Since the 1980s, China's coastal cities have established developed cotton textile processing industries. China's main cotton sales areas are located in coastal and central cities, such as Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Guangdong and other places. By province, Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Zhejiang and other provinces ranked top in cotton consumption. After China's entry into WTO, the advantages of China's textile and clothing production have gradually manifested, and the export volume has increased year by year. At present, China has about 70 million spindles and 17 million workers engaged in the cotton spinning industry. The annual spinning volume is nearly 10 million tons, and about 6.5 million tons of raw cotton is needed. Table 12: Balance of China's cotton production and demand

year	planting area (10000 mu)	Unit yield (kg/mu)	opening inventory (10000 tons)	yield (10000 tons)	Consumption (10000 tons)	Export volume (10000 tons)	Import volume (10000 tons)
90/91	eight thousand three hundred and eighty-two	fifty-four	eighty-six point six two	four hundred and fifty point six two	four hundred and thirty-five	twenty	forty-eight
91/92	nine thousand eight hundred and eight point five	fifty-eight	one hundred and twenty-nine point six six	five hundred and sixty-eight point one seven	four hundred and fifty-four	thirteen	thirty-five point four eight
92/93	ten thousand two hundred and fifty-two point five	forty-four	two hundred and fifty-nine point seven nine	four hundred and fifty point six two	four hundred and seventy-seven	fifteen	five point two seven
93/94	seven thousand and five hundred	fifty	two hundred and ten point nine eight	three hundred and seventy-four point four three	four hundred and sixty-four	sixteen	seventeen point five nine
94/95	eight thousand two hundred and ninety-five	fifty-two	one hundred and sixteen point four nine	four hundred and thirty-three point two	four hundred and thirty-five	four	eighty-eight point three eight
95/96	eight thousand one hundred and thirty-three	fifty-nine	one hundred and ninety-eight point seven one	four hundred and seventy-six point seven four	four hundred and twenty-two	zero	sixty-six point two nine
96/97	seven thousand and eighty-three	fifty-nine	three hundred and eighteen point nine six	four hundred and twenty point one four	four hundred and thirty-four	zero	seventy-eight point six five
97/98	six thousand seven hundred and thirty-six point five	sixty-eight	three hundred and eighty-three point two four	four hundred and fifty-nine point three two	four hundred and seventeen	one	thirty-nine point nine two
98/99	six thousand six hundred and eighty-eight point five	sixty-seven	four hundred and sixty-four point eight eight	four hundred and fifty point six two	four hundred and seven	fifteen	seven point eight two
99/00	five thousand five hundred and eighty-nine	sixty-nine	five hundred and one point four zero	three hundred and eighty-three point one three	four hundred and sixty-four	thirty-seven	two point five five
00/01	six thousand and eighty-seven	seventy-three	three hundred and eighty-six point five seven	four hundred and forty-one point nine one	five hundred and twelve	ten	five point two five
01/02	seven thousand two hundred and thirty	seventy-three	three hundred and twelve point four one	five hundred and thirty-one point one six	five hundred and seventy-one	seven	nine point seven seven
02/03	six thousand two hundred and seventy-six	seventy-eight	two hundred and seventy-four point four six	four hundred and ninety-one point nine eight	six hundred and forty-two	sixteen	sixty-eight point zero seven
03/04	seven thousand six hundred and fifty	sixty-three	one hundred and seventy-five point nine eight	four hundred and seventy-eight point nine two	six hundred and fifty-seven	two	one hundred and fifty-two point three eight
04/05	eight thousand five hundred and forty-one	seventy-four		632

　　 （2） Review of historical cotton prices

Before 1999, China's cotton market was not liberalized, and both production and price were controlled by the state. The basic characteristics of its circulation system and cotton price can be summarized as follows: contract purchase was implemented in the purchase process, and the supply and marketing cooperatives were responsible for the unified purchase; In the sales link, the distribution is planned by the state, and the supply and marketing cooperatives operate uniformly. The cotton market is not liberalized. Therefore, over the years, China's cotton price is not formed by market competition, but determined by the government according to the supply and demand of domestic cotton (see Figure 3).

Source: Research on China's Cotton System Reform, chief editor: Ma Kai, China Price Publishing House, August 1997, page 499.

The most prominent feature of this purchase and sale system and the formation of cotton prices is that they cannot adapt to the dynamic market situation in a timely manner, ranging from one year to several years without price change. When the supply of cotton falls short of demand, the state often fails to raise the price in time (such as in 1992 and 1993), and when the supply of cotton exceeds demand, the price cannot be lowered in time (such as in 1996 and 1997). "Difficulties in selling cotton" and "Difficulties in buying cotton" alternate. When the supply falls short of demand, the purchase link raises the price, and when the supply exceeds demand, the price is depressed. Cotton farmers face greater price risks. Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, China's cotton price changes can be roughly divided into the following stages:

The first stage: 1949-1977, the period of price stability. The national economy is under highly planned management, and the national cotton purchase and marketing are unified. The price is relatively stable at about 1800 yuan/ton.

The second stage: 1978-1988, adjustment period. The country has adjusted the cotton purchase price for eight times, including five increases and three decreases, but the adjustment range is not large. This is also a period of rapid development of cotton production in China. The cotton output in 1984 was 6.258 million tons, the highest year so far.

The third stage: 1989-1998, the period of price rise. The state has raised the cotton purchase price seven times, three times in 1994 alone, with a cumulative price increase of 130.3%, during which the cotton planting area showed a downward trend. Because the main basis for the country to set the purchase price of cotton is the relationship between grain and cotton prices. Because the grain price is low for a long time, the purchase price of cotton is also low, and there is a lot of investment in cotton planting, which is risky, labor-intensive, and time-consuming. It is not as cost-effective as planting other economic crops, fruits, and vegetables, so the enthusiasm for cotton planting is not high.

　　 4、 China's cotton import and export

China is the largest cotton producer and consumer in the world, and also an influential cotton importer in the world. In the early 1990s, China's cotton textile industry developed rapidly, and domestic cotton supply fell short of demand. A large amount of cotton was once imported. In 1994, China's purchase of cotton once led to the continuous increase and limit of cotton futures prices on the New York Cotton Exchange. Since 1995, the annual output of domestic cotton has been relatively stable. Affected by the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, the export volume of cotton textiles has declined, and the domestic use of cotton for textiles has declined, so the import volume has declined. After joining WTO, due to China's advantages in textile technology and labor resources, the textile output and export volume have increased year by year, driving the textile cotton consumption to rise continuously. Since the growth rate of consumption is greater than the growth rate of output, China has been short of production for five consecutive years, and needs to use inventory to make up for the gap between production and demand. After the 2002 cotton year, due to the reduction of domestic stocks, China's cotton imports began to increase, and the growth rate was large (see Table 13).

Table 13: China's cotton import and export volume from 1990 to 2004

particular year	Import volume	Export volume
one thousand nine hundred and ninety	forty-four	twenty-nine
one thousand nine hundred and ninety-one	twenty-three	twenty-eight point nine
one thousand nine hundred and ninety-two	twenty-two	fourteen point one
one thousand nine hundred and ninety-three	zero	ten point nine one
one thousand nine hundred and ninety-four	fifty	three point two seven
one thousand nine hundred and ninety-five	seventy-four	zero point zero five
one thousand nine hundred and ninety-six	sixty-five	zero
one thousand nine hundred and ninety-seven	seventy-five	one point one
one thousand nine hundred and ninety-eight	seventy-eight	twenty-five
one thousand nine hundred and ninety-nine	thirty-three	twenty-three point six three
two thousand	four point seven	twenty-nine point two five
two thousand and one	five point six	five point two
two thousand and two	twenty point eight zero	fifteen point eight nine
two thousand and three	ninety-five point four three	eleven point seven four
two thousand and four	one hundred and ninety point one one	zero point nine one

Source: Statistics of the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China.

Among China's cotton imports, the United States is the majority of upland cotton, and Uzbekistan, Benin, Australia and other countries also have large cotton imports (see Table 14).  

Table 14: Statistics of China's cotton imports by country and region in 2004

country	Import quantity (ton)	Import amount (USD 10000)	Position	Import share
U.S.A	one hundred and five thousand five hundred and twenty-five point two five	one hundred and seventy-six thousand six hundred and forty-two point six six	one	55.79%
Uzbekistan	one hundred and ninety-six thousand seven hundred and eighty-five point five	thirty-two thousand six hundred and forty-seven point three eight	two	10.31%
Australia	one hundred and one thousand two hundred and seventy-seven point five	seventeen thousand three hundred and sixty-nine point one	three	5.49%
burkina faso	seventy-three thousand eight hundred and ninety point five eight	twelve thousand two hundred and fifty-eight point three seven	four	3.87%
Benin	sixty-five thousand seven hundred and seventy-nine point seven	ten thousand nine hundred and three point four two	five	3.44%
Mali	sixty-three thousand five hundred and fifteen point zero three	ten thousand six hundred and sixty-six point five four	six	3.37%
Republic of Cote d'Ivoire	fifty-six thousand eight hundred and seventy-six point five three	nine thousand two hundred and thirteen point three eight	seven	2.91%
India	forty-three thousand nine hundred and forty-nine point seven four	seven thousand and eighty-six point nine eight	eight	2.24%
Cameroon	thirty-three thousand one hundred and forty point seven four	five thousand five hundred and four point six two	nine	1.74%
Paraguay	thirty thousand four hundred and forty point six nine	four thousand eight hundred and nine point zero five	ten	1.52%
other	one hundred and eighty thousand two hundred and twenty-nine point nine four	twenty-nine thousand five hundred and forty-five point six two		9.33%
total	one million nine hundred and one thousand one hundred and thirty-six point five	three hundred and sixteen thousand six hundred and forty-seven point one two		100.00%

Source: China Cotton Information Network.

Table 15: Statistics of China's cotton exports by country and region in 2004

country	Export quantity (ton)	Export amount (USD 10000)	Position	Export share
Japan	two hundred and eighty-five point eight four	five hundred and seventy-four point two seven three	one	36.48%
Indonesia	one thousand seven hundred and seventy-one point six three	two hundred and sixty-three point nine seven two	two	16.77%
the republic of korea	one thousand five hundred and eighty-three point one seven	two hundred and forty-two point seven four three	three	15.42%
Taiwan Province	seven hundred and seventy-one point zero six eight	one hundred and thirty-eight point one six seven	four	8.78%
Thailand	five hundred and sixty-two point eight two one	one hundred and one point zero seven one	five	6.42%
Pakistan	three hundred and eleven point three three nine	sixty-seven point six six four six	six	4.30%
Italy	four hundred point eight three three	fifty-seven point zero five six three	seven	3.62%
India	three hundred and fifty point seven nine two	forty-eight point nine five three five	eight	3.11%
U.S.A	two hundred and one point seven four one	thirty-five point three nine zero five	nine	2.25%
Peru	one hundred and twenty-four point one nine six	twenty-six point four two one nine	ten	1.68%
other	one thousand one hundred and eighty-eight point zero eight	eighteen point four five seven two		1.17%
total	nine thousand and ninety-one point five one	one thousand five hundred and seventy-four point one seven		100.00%

Source: China Cotton Information Network.

　　 5、 World cotton production, consumption and trade

The world cotton production has a long history and has accumulated rich planting experience. Due to the rapid development of modern science and technology, the revolution of breeding technology and planting technology has greatly promoted the world cotton production. At present, there are more than 60 cotton growing countries in the world, which are distributed in Asia, Africa, America, Europe and Oceania. The cotton producing regions are mostly in the vast area between 40 degrees north latitude and 30 degrees south latitude.

　　 （1） Overview of World Cotton Production, Consumption and Trade

After the Second World War, the main characteristics of the world cotton production pattern are: first, after the rapid growth of cotton production in the 1950s, it began to shift to a slow climbing growth from the 1960s. The annual growth of world cotton production and consumption is basically adapted to the growth rate of world population and the improvement of human living standards, and is constantly balanced through the leverage of international trade demand. Second, the total cotton planting area has not changed much (see Figure 4). The growth of world cotton production mainly depends on the increase of output per unit area (see Figure 5). Due to the high value of cotton, cotton producing countries attach great importance to improving cotton yield per unit area. China is currently the country with the highest cotton yield per unit area, followed by the United States, Uzbekistan and other countries. Third, the pattern in which the United States, the former Soviet Union (which has disintegrated and is now replaced by Uzbekistan) and China dominate world cotton production has not changed, but the order has changed. Since the 1980s, China has become the largest cotton producing country. At the same time, the number of countries producing more than one million tons of cotton increased from three (the United States, the former Soviet Union and China) to five, followed by China, the United States, India, Pakistan and Uzbekistan. Fourth, in terms of raw cotton consumption, China ranks first in the world. However, in terms of raw cotton export, the United States still ranks first in the world (see Figures 6, 7, 8 and 9).

Source: USDA Overseas agriculture products Service Bureau.

Source: USDA Overseas Agricultural Products Service

Source: Same as above, unit: 10000 tons.

Source: Same as above, unit: 10000 tons

Source: Same as above, unit: 10000 tons.

In recent years, although the cotton output of major cotton producing countries has changed significantly between years, the total international cotton output is relatively stable, basically around 20 million tons (see Figure 6). As a necessity of life, cotton is consumed not only by cotton producing countries, but also by other countries that do not produce cotton. The cotton they need must be obtained from the international cotton market. Even some cotton producing countries need to import cotton from the international market because they are also big consumers of cotton, which forms the relationship between cotton producing countries and non cotton producing countries The relationship of supply and demand and adjustment between cotton producing countries forms the cotton trade between purchase and marketing in the world import and export cotton market. In general, most of the world's cotton trade volume is concentrated among a few major countries. The six countries and regions that export the most cotton are the United States, Uzbekistan, Australia, India, Sudan and Pakistan (see Figure 9). The total export volume accounts for about 65% of the world's total export volume, of which the United States accounts for about 20% of the world's total export volume. The countries and regions that import more cotton are the EU, China, Indonesia, South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, Japan and Hong Kong (see Figure 10).

Data source: as shown in the table above.

Data source: China's cotton import data is from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, and data sources of other countries are as shown in the table above.

（2） International authoritative cotton price and its trend

Before the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange listed cotton futures on June 1, 2004, there were two authoritative cotton prices in the international market: one was the cotton futures price in the New York Futures Exchange, which was the main basis for governments to formulate cotton policies and for cotton related enterprises in various countries to refer to in production and operation. The second is the Cotbook A and Cotbook B indexes collated by Liverpool Cotton Outlook, which are the CIF prices of cotton in major ports in northern Europe obtained by the British Cotton Outlook from various channels every day, and are the actual transaction prices

　　。 Since Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange listed cotton futures on June 1, 2004, it has formed an influential "Zhengzhou price" in the international market and become one of the important indicators that global cotton traders pay attention to every day (see Figure 11).

Source: Cotbook A and B indexes are sourced from the website of British Kotruk Company, and the monthly average price is used as the comparison data; The price of New York cotton futures is sourced from the website of New York Futures Exchange, and the drawing data is the monthly average price of the settlement price of the last delivery month.

There are many reasons that affect the fluctuation of cotton prices in the international market, such as output, consumption, climate, economic prosperity, war, chemical fiber prices, etc. However, in the current situation of large supply and demand in the international cotton market, an important factor affecting the trend of cotton prices is the "China factor". China's cotton output, import and export volume have a great impact on the fluctuation of world cotton prices. In 1992 and 1993, China did not import or export much, and the cotton price in the international market has been stable between 53-67 cents/pound (equivalent to 11130-14070 yuan/ton CIF), with little fluctuation. In 1994, China's cotton production declined, consumer demand was strong, and China's cotton imports increased. In 1995, China significantly adjusted the purchase price of domestic cotton, driving the price of cotton in the international market to rise sharply again. During the year, the cotton price in the international market rose to 117 cents/pound (equivalent to 24570 yuan/ton CIF), an increase of 74.6% over 1992 and 1993, reaching the highest point since 1981. Since 1995, China's cotton production has been relatively stable, with an output of about 4.5 million tons, which can basically meet the demand of the domestic market. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the cotton price in the international market has declined. By the end of December 1999, the price of cotton futures in New York was only 48.86 cents/pound (equivalent to 10260 yuan/ton CIF), down 58.24% from the highest price in 1995. In 2001, due to the forecast that China's cotton output in 2001/2002 would increase significantly, reaching 5.32 million tons in total, cotton futures prices fell again. On October 25, 2001, the contract of the New York Futures Exchange in December was at least 28.52 cents/pound (equivalent to 5989 yuan/ton CIF). In 2002, due to the decrease of cotton planting area and production in the main producing countries, the global cotton price rose. After the new cotton year (September 1), the price of cotton futures contracts for the latest delivery month on the New York Futures Exchange rose from 43.8 cents/pound (September 3, 2002) to

60 cents/pound (March 17, 2003), up 36.99%. Due to the rise in global cotton prices and the influence of comparative interests, the cotton planting area has increased. Affected by climate and other natural disasters, cotton output did not increase year-on-year, especially in China, where the sown area increased by nearly 22%, while its output decreased by 0.9%. With a large gap between domestic production and demand in China and the expected increase in cotton import data, the price of international cotton market soared, and the highest price on the New York Futures Exchange was nearly 85 cents/pound.