Factors affecting soybean price change

（1） Analysis of soybean supply

1. International market supply

The global soybean harvest is divided into two periods based on the northern and southern hemispheres. The soybean harvest period in South America (Brazil and Argentina) is from April to May each year, while that in the United States and China in the northern hemisphere is from September to October. Therefore, there is a centralized supply of soybeans every six months.

The United States is the largest soybean supplier in the world, and its production changes have a greater impact on the world soybean market.

2. Domestic soybean supply

As a agriculture products The production and supply of soybean are uncertain. First, soybean planting and supply are seasonal. Generally speaking, the price of soybeans is relatively low during the harvest period. Secondly, the planting area of soybeans is changing, which affects the market price of soybeans. Second, the growth period of soybeans is about 4 months. During the planting period, climate factors, growth conditions and harvest progress will affect the soybean yield, and then affect the price of soybeans.

3. Import volume

China is one of the largest importers in the international soybean market. Therefore, the international price level and import volume directly affect the domestic soybean price.

（2） Analysis of soybean consumption

1. Analysis of international market demand factors

The main soybean importing countries are the European Union, Japan, China, Southeast Asian countries and regions. The soybean import volume of EU and Japan is relatively stable, while that of China and Southeast Asian countries changes greatly. In 1997, the financial crisis occurred in Asia, and the import volume of soybeans in Southeast Asian countries declined sharply, leading to the decline of soybean prices in the international market.

2. Analysis of domestic market demand factors

The consumption of soybeans is relatively stable and has a weak impact on prices. After the soybean is pressed, the market demand for soybean oil and soybean meal products is uncertain, and there are many influencing factors. The crushing demand of soybean varies greatly, which has a great impact on the price.

（3） Impact of related commodity prices

As food, soybean substitutes include peas, mung beans, kidney beans, etc; As oilseeds, soybean substitutes include rapeseed, cottonseed, sunflower seed, peanut, etc. Changes in the output, price and consumption of these substitutes also have an indirect impact on soybean prices.

The price of soybean is directly related to its follow-up products, soybean oil and soybean meal. The change of demand for these two products will directly lead to the change of soybean price.

（4） Agricultural, trade and food policies related to soybeans

l. Impact of agricultural policies

Internationally, agricultural policies of major soybean producing countries have a great impact on soybean futures prices. In 1996, the United States Congress approved the new Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform Act of 1996, which made the area of soybean planted by the main farmers in the United States increased by 10% in the afternoon of 1997, and became one of the factors that pushed the price of soybean down significantly.

Changes in domestic agricultural policies will also have an impact on soybean prices. In 2000, the state encouraged farmers to diversify their soybeans, and the soybean planting area in Northeast China increased.

2. Impact of trade policy

Trade policies will directly affect the availability of goods, especially the original price of goods. After China's entry into the WTO, the import tariff on soybeans will be reduced to 3%. At the same time, due to the impossibility of soybean import quota, China's soybean import volume will remain at a high level in the future.

3. Impact of food policy

Since the 1990s, European countries have required the United States to separate "genetically modified" soybeans from soybeans exported to the EU, and have labeled "genetically modified" soybeans. If this food policy is implemented, it will have an impact on the world soybean market, especially on GM soybeans.

（5） Influence of international market price of soybean

The import and export volume of Chinese soybeans accounts for a large proportion in the world soybean trade volume. The international market price of soybeans and the domestic soybean price affect each other. The soybean futures prices of the Big Mercantile Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) have the same price trend, and each has its own independence.

Factors affecting the price change of soybean meal

1. Analysis of soybean meal supply factors

The production and consumption of soybean meal, the international market and the domestic market have been introduced. These factors are important factors affecting the price of soybean meal. The supply of soybean meal is mainly composed of three parts: a. The early inventory, which is an important part of the total output, reflects the tightness of the supply. The price of supply shortage rises, while the price of supply surplus falls. b、 Current production. The current yield of soybean meal is a variable, which is subject to such factors as soybean supply, soybean crushing income and production cost. c、 The import volume of soybean meal. As China is about to enter WTO, the internationalization of the soybean meal market is getting higher and higher. In recent years, China has become a soybean meal importing country, and the international market has an increasing impact on the domestic soybean meal market. Therefore, we should try our best to keep abreast of the changes in international market, international price level, import policy and import volume. The United States is a major soybean meal exporter. Every Thursday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture releases U.S. Export Sales Reports, in which there are U.S. soybean meal export data, including U.S. export data to China, which have important reference value.

When analyzing the supply and demand of soybean meal, special attention should be paid to the short storage time. In the south, the storage time of soybean meal is generally 3 to 4 months, while in the north, it can be stored for about 8 months, so that the soybean meal turns around quickly in the spot market, and traders hope to complete the transaction in a short time. Once the storage time is too long and the quality of soybean meal changes, the manufacturer can only reduce the price. This characteristic of soybean meal storage determines that once centralized supply occurs, the regional price of soybean meal will fall immediately. For example, the centralized arrival of imported soybean meal will affect the supply and demand relationship in the surrounding areas of the import port, leading to a decline in the price of soybean meal. The short storage time of soybean meal, on the one hand, promoted the market flow of soybean meal, on the other hand, caused frequent fluctuations in the price of soybean meal.

In addition, other factors affecting supply include: domestic soybean processing capacity, relative production costs of substitutes (such as other cakes, corn, etc.), etc.

2. Analysis of soybean meal demand factors.

Soybean meal demand usually consists of domestic consumption, export volume and ending commodity balance. a、 Domestic consumption. It is not a fixed constant, but is affected by many factors. The main factors affecting the domestic consumption of soybean meal include the development of domestic feed industry, changes in consumer purchasing power, population growth and structural changes, and the government's policies to encourage the development of feed industry. b、 Export volume. In the case of a certain output, the increase of export volume will reduce the supply of the domestic market; Conversely, the reduction of exports will increase domestic supply. At present, China's soybean meal output cannot meet domestic demand, so there is no situation of soybean meal export. c、 Closing commodity balance. If the inventory increases at the end of the year, it means that the supply of goods is greater than the demand in the year, and the futures price may fall; Otherwise, it will rise. Due to the short storage time of soybean meal, the ending balance data has little impact on the price of soybean meal.

The demand for soybean meal should also take into account the changes in supply and demand in the international market, especially in East and Southeast Asian countries. Asian consumers eat more poultry and pork, and the breeding and feed industries are relatively developed, so there is a large demand for soybean meal. The economic boom of Asian countries has a greater impact on the demand for soybean meal. In case of economic downturn, the import volume in Asia is less; With economic recovery and growth, the import of soybean meal will increase.

Other factors affecting demand include: consumers' purchasing power, consumer preferences, supply and demand for substitutes, population changes, changes in commodity structure and other non price factors.

3. Price relationship between soybean meal, soybean and soybean oil

Soybean meal is a by-product of soybeans. Each ton of soybeans can produce 0.2 tons of soybean oil and 0.8 tons of soybean meal. The price of soybean meal is closely related to the price of soybeans. Every year, the output of soybeans will affect the price of soybean meal. The price of soybean meal will fall when soybeans are harvested well, and rise when soybeans are harvested poorly. At the same time, there is also a correlation between soybean oil and soybean meal. If the price of soybean oil is good, the price of soybean meal will fall. If the soybean oil is unsalable, the output of soybean meal will decrease and the price of soybean meal will rise. Soybean crushing efficiency is one of the important factors that determine the supply of soybean meal. If the crushing efficiency of oil and fat plants has been depressed, some manufacturers will stop production and reduce the market supply of soybean meal.

4. Seasonal factors of soybean meal price change

Usually, the months after the soybean harvest in November are the peak season for soybean meal production, and April August is the slack season for soybean meal production. The demand for soybean meal generally increases from March to October. During this period, the price of soybean meal will fluctuate greatly. The price of soybean meal also fluctuates with the acquisition of main soybean meal producing areas and changes in inventory.

5. Impact of international market prices

In recent years, the import and export trade of soybean meal is very active, and the import of soybean meal accounts for more and more domestic consumption. The price of soybean meal in the international market (especially the price of CBOT soybean meal futures contracts) has directly affected the domestic market. At present, the quality standard of soybean meal for feed is in accordance with the national standard GB10380-89. The quality uniformity of imported soybean meal is good. After the imported soybean meal is graded according to the national standard, except that the crude fiber index can only meet the national standard level 3, other indexes can meet the national standard level 2 or above. Due to the long transportation time, the freshness of imported soybean meal is generally worse than that of domestic soybean meal, and lysine and other indicators are slightly lower than that of domestic soybean meal. Therefore, in spot trade, the price of imported soybean meal is about 100 yuan/ton lower than that of domestic soybean meal. Since the arrival of imported soybean meal is large and concentrated (generally 30000 to 50000 tons per ship), each time a cargo ship enters the port, it will cause a temporary oversupply situation, and the local soybean meal price will also fall.

6. Relevant agricultural, trade and food policies

National agricultural policies often affect farmers' choice of sowing. For example, in recent years, the state has directly increased the yield of domestic soybeans by adjusting relevant industrial policies to guide farmers to increase the sowing of soybeans; For example, the country encourages the development of feed industry and breeding industry to directly expand the demand for soybean meal.

From the situation over the years, the change of the national import and export policy has a greater impact on the total import and export of soybean meal in China. For example, in 2002, the State Administration of Taxation adjusted the tariff of exported soybean meal, which strengthened the competitiveness of domestic soybean meal in the international market and had a very obvious impact on promoting the export of Chinese soybean meal.

In recent years, more and more countries have implemented new food policies due to the occurrence of avian influenza, mad cow disease and foot and mouth disease and the impact of genetically modified food on human health. The implementation of these new food policies has a very direct impact on the demand of the breeding industry and soybean meal.

Factors affecting the price change of soybean oil

（1） Supply of soybean oil

1. Soybean supply

As the downstream product of soybean processing, soybean oil supply directly determines the supply of soybean oil. Under normal circumstances, the increase of soybean oil supply will inevitably lead to the increase of soybean oil supply. There are two main sources of soybeans, one is domestic soybeans, the other is imported soybeans.

(1) Domestic soybean supply

Northeast China and the Huang Huai region are the main soybean producing areas. The harvest season is usually from September to October every year, and the months after harvest are the concentration period of soybean supply. In recent years, China's soybean production has maintained at about 16 million tons, of which nearly half is used for pressing.

(2) International market supply

China is currently the largest soybean importer in the world. In recent years, China imports more than 20 million tons of soybeans from the United States, Brazil and Argentina every year.

2. Soybean oil output

The current yield of soybean oil is a variable, which is subject to such factors as soybean supply, soybean crushing income and production cost. Generally speaking, when other factors remain unchanged, there is an obvious reverse relationship between the output of soybean oil and the price. The output of soybean oil increases and the price is relatively low; The output of soybean oil decreased and the price was relatively high.

3. Import and export volume of soybean oil

With the rapid development of China's economy and the continuous improvement of people's living standards, the consumption of soybean oil has increased year by year, and its import volume has also increased year by year. The influence of changes in soybean oil import volume on domestic soybean oil prices is growing. After 2006, with the cancellation of the quota of imported soybean oil, the domestic and foreign soybean oil markets will be integrated. In this way, the influence of the import quantity of soybean oil on the domestic soybean oil price will be further strengthened.

4. Soybean oil inventory

Soybean oil inventory is an important part of supply, and the amount of inventory reflects the tightness of supply. In most cases, the price rises when there is a shortage of inventory, and falls when there is a sufficient inventory. Because soybean oil is not easy to keep for a long time, once the soybean oil inventory increases, the price of soybean oil tends to decline.

（2） Consumption of soybean oil

1. Domestic demand

China is a big soybean oil consumer. In recent years, domestic soybean oil consumption has grown rapidly, maintaining an annual growth rate of more than 12%.

2. Prosperity of catering industry

At present, China's vegetable oil production and consumption rank in the forefront of the world. In recent years, with the improvement of living standards of urban residents, the number of people dining out has been increasing. The prosperity of the catering industry has a very obvious impact on the demand for soybean oil.

（3） Price of relevant commodities and substitute commodities

1. Soybean price

The price of soybean directly affects the production cost of soybean oil. In recent years, many large-scale crushing enterprises in China have chosen imported soybeans as processing materials, which makes the crushing quantity of imported soybeans far exceed that of domestic soybeans. As a result, the price of soybean oil is increasingly affected by the price of imported soybeans.

The efficiency of soybean crushing is one of the important factors that determine the supply of soybean oil. If the crushing efficiency of soybean processing plants has been depressed, some manufacturers will stop production, thus reducing the market supply of soybean oil.

2. The Price Relationship between Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal

Soybean oil is the downstream product of soybeans. Each ton of soybeans can be squeezed out about 0.18 tons of soybean oil and 0.8 tons of soybean meal. The price of soybean oil and soybean meal is closely related. According to years of experience, in most cases, when the price of soybean meal rises, the price of soybean oil will fall; When the soybean meal is unsalable, the soybean processing plant will reduce the operating rate, reduce the output of soybean oil, and the price of soybean oil will often rise.

3. Price of soybean oil substitutes

In addition to the high correlation between soybean oil prices and soybean and soybean meal prices, soybean oil substitutes such as rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanut oil and cottonseed oil also have a certain impact on the price of soybean oil. If the price of soybean oil is too high, refineries or oil companies will often use other vegetable oils to replace it, which will reduce the demand for soybean oil and drive the price of soybean oil down.

（4） Impact of agricultural, trade and food policies

1. Agricultural policy

National agricultural policies often affect farmers' choice of planting varieties. For example, in recent years, the country has led farmers to increase the soybean planting area by adjusting relevant industrial policies, thus directly increasing the domestic soybean yield. After May 1, 2004, China implemented a new vegetable oil standard, improved the product quality and health and safety requirements for vegetable oil, and added peroxide value and solvent residue index tests. These policies have a certain impact on the price of soybean oil.

2. Import and export trade policy

From the situation over the years, the change of the national import and export trade policy has a greater impact on the total import and export of soybean oil in China. For example, in 1994, the State Administration of Taxation adjusted the tariff rate of imported soybean oil, reducing the tariff rate from 20% to 13%. At the same time, the tariff rate of peanut oil, palm oil and other vegetable oils also decreased to varying degrees, resulting in a significant increase in the import of soybean oil and other vegetable oils, and a rapid increase in the supply of soybean oil.

3. Food policy

In recent years, with the occurrence of avian influenza, mad cow disease and foot and mouth disease, and considering the impact of genetically modified food on human health, more and more countries have implemented new food policies. These new food policies have affected the consumption demand of soybean oil through their impact on the food and catering industries.

(Source: Dalian Commodity Exchange (Weibo) )