White sugar Daily review: the latest rumors of sugar market national storage and warehouse out and sugar transgenic
Source: Yisheng Wealth
Today (November 20), the domestic sugar market opened at a low price, among which Zheng Tang's main 1901 contract opened at 4944, the highest at 4950, the lowest at 4889, and closed at 4914. It dropped 55 yuan, with 315400 transactions, 231600 positions and 9800 positions reduced. Take out a medium and long line with shadow line. Zheng Tang's 1905 contract opened at 4960, with a maximum of 4961, a minimum of 4920, and a closing price of 4947. It fell 10 yuan, with 187200 transactions, 299700 positions, and 9600 position reductions. A small shadow line with a shadow line was closed, and the lower part was supported.
The short positions of the medium and short term averages of the Zheng Sugar Index spread downward, and the MACD formed a high dead fork and continued to diverge downward, crossing the zero line and entering the weak area, and the green column was enlarged. KDJ low position bonding winding has not yet formed a golden fork, the trading volume has been reduced, and the K-line graph shows that the lower support is obvious.
Liuzhou spot market was stronger than Zheng Tang. Liuzhou 19013 contract opened at 5000, the highest was 5025, the lowest was 4071, and the closing was 5002. It fell 12, with 69900 transactions and 394900 positions. Liupan 19053 contract rose 15 yuan to close at 5031 yuan.
The spot price in the main domestic white sugar producing areas has been adjusted: Guangxi: Nanning intermediary platform has no quotation for the time being; There is no quotation for the warehouse. There is no quotation for Nanning Group platform; The factory warehouse quotation is 5200 yuan/ton, the quotation remains unchanged, and the transaction is average. Liuzhou middleman platform quoted 5340 yuan/ton; The warehouse quoted 5340 yuan/ton, the quotation remained unchanged, and the transaction was average. The platform of Liuzhou Group quoted 5330-5380 yuan/ton, the quotation remained unchanged, and the deal was average. The price quoted by the guest broker warehouse is 5360 yuan/ton. The price remains unchanged and the deal is fair. There is no quotation for Qinzhou middleman warehouse. There is no quotation for the broker warehouse in Guigang.
Yunnan: Kunming middlemen offer 5100-5150 yuan/ton; The quotation of Dali is 5050-5070 yuan/ton; Xiangyun quoted 5060 yuan/ton, the quotation remained unchanged, and the deal was fair. Kunming Group quoted 5100-5150 yuan/ton, the quotation remained unchanged, and the deal was fair. Guangdong: Zhanjiang middlemen quoted 5320-5420 yuan/ton, the quotation remained unchanged, and the deal was fair. Xinjiang: Urumqi middlemen quote 5050-5200 yuan/ton for new sugar and 4950 yuan/ton for old sugar. The quotation remains unchanged and the deal is fair.
To sum up: many years ago, when Bingfeng first came into contact with genetically modified crops, he also held a high esteem and thought that he had finally solved the problem of feeding the world's population. After all, there were more than one billion people living in hunger and cold all over the world. Later, after understanding the working principles of GM crops such as weeding and pest control, he became suspicious. After reading a lot of GM information, Bingfeng held a boycott attitude towards GM crops. Although Bingfeng is not a biological expert, he had a deep understanding before Cui Yongyuan fought against GM, and whether herbicide residues or BT proteins enter the human body can be specifically searched online.
Today, I saw a comment screenshot of Fang Zhouzi's article "The US FDA has completed the safety assessment and consultation of insect resistant transgenic sugarcane" on WeChat group. The comment is as follows: 'It seems that transgenic sugarcane will be planted in a large scale soon, and currently planted sugar beets are basically genetically modified'. From the semantic point of view, Dr. Fang may be worth American sugar beets and sucrose. The United States is one of the few countries that produce both sugar and sucrose. It is the only country in the world that grows genetically modified sugar beets on a large scale. The output of sugar beets accounts for about 40% of the total sugar consumption, sucrose accounts for 30%, and the other 30% is imported sugar.
Because American domestic products need to be labeled with genetically modified products, the major food brands in the United States give priority to the purchase of non genetically modified sugar. The genetically modified sugar is mainly used as preservative and exported to countries that allow the import of genetically modified food. The US sugar output accounts for about 12% of the global sugar output and 2.5% of the global sugar output. The non mainstream market share is extremely low. Except for the United States, most of the other sugar beets planted are non transgenic, including China. Although China has wholesale the import of genetically modified sugar beets, it has not approved the planting of genetically modified sugar beets because of the transportation problem, which is only used for scientific research. Currently, all sugar beets planted in China are non genetically modified.
The transgenic sugarcane is still in the experimental stage. Except for a small amount of planting in Brazil, other regions have not entered into commercial planting. The advantage of planting genetically modified crops is mainly in cost, which uses low prices to compete with non genetically modified crops. It's like soybean Similarly, soybean exporting countries such as the United States, Brazil and Argentina can not only plant genetically modified soybeans, but also large grain growers can plant non genetically modified soybeans and sell them to China as long as the price is appropriate. At present, all sugar planted and produced in China is also non GMO, but some ambiguous remarks of online celebrities will still bring misunderstanding to domestic sugar consumers. At the same time, it also sounded an alarm bell for the domestic sugar industry. We must be cautious in developing sugar beet or sugarcane transgenic plants.
In recent days, there have been many rumors about the hot issues in the domestic sugar market. The latest rumor is that the State Reserve has delivered about 500000 tons of Cuban sugar, at a price of 4200-4000 yuan per ton, which is processed and produced by COFCO. Bingfeng mentioned the rumor here, which is suspected of spreading rumors. However, Bingfeng is to analyze the rumor, crack the rumor, and reduce the impact of the rumor on the domestic sugar market. According to the rumor, the operator is responsible for the consequences.
According to this rumor, since it is Cuban sugar, it should be raw sugar. In the memory of Ice Peak, all the imported sugar from Cuba is raw sugar. Each ton is about 2204 pounds, and 4200 yuan per ton is equal to 1.91 yuan per pound. It is 27.57 cents based on today's 6.928 yuan per dollar exchange rate, and 28.87 cents based on 4400 yuan per ton. If according to the estimation formula of raw sugar import of Mutian Technology, the overseas freight and other expenses for import from Thailand (because there is no formula for direct domestic processing of sugar) are set to 0, including the customs tax rate is also 0, and only the exchange rate, 16% value-added tax rate, 0.04 loss rate, processing fees, domestic freight and other miscellaneous expenses of 350 yuan and optical rotation value-added of 1.04 are retained, If the tax inclusive cost after processing is calculated at 27.57 cents, it is 5634 yuan per ton, and it is 5883 yuan per ton calculated at 28.87 cents.
From the above data, it is clear that if the rumor is true, unless COFCO sells at no cost, its breakeven line will be around 5750 yuan. Many domestic sugar kernels still habitually interpret the increase in the ex warehouse supply of the national reserve as a negative. If the average price of 5750 yuan is significantly higher than the current spot price, it is also higher than the average cost price of domestic sugar in this pressing season. In addition, if this rumor is carried out in December when domestic sugar is widely squeezed, it means that from now on, there will be no slack and peak seasons for the export of domestic sugar, and the export of domestic sugar is expected to become normal, but this contradicts the guiding ideology of the country to stabilize domestic sugar prices. The individual suggested that the outbound quantity of national storage should be deducted from the import quota of next year. According to the current situation that the domestic sugar industry is once again on the verge of the whole industry's loss, the import rhythm should be adjusted in advance according to the fluctuation between the sugar price and the cost of domestic sugar production, so as to truly achieve effective import on demand. At the same time, we need to continue to crack down on sugar smuggling and maintain the order of fair competition in the sugar market.
In short, the sugar industry needs to respond to all kinds of rumors immediately, explain all kinds of rumors immediately, curb the spread of panic, maintain the normal order of the sugar market, establish correct and proper confidence in the industry, and establish legal norms in the industry. To solve some discord in the sugar market, we should return to the interests of sugar farmers. Sugar farmers are like water. Without sugar farmers and sugar manufacturing enterprises, there is no source of water. Sugar farmers are the most basic guarantee for sugar manufacturing enterprises to develop to a higher level. The state is the patron saint of the sugar market. It should not only safeguard the immediate income of sugar farmers and increase their actual income, but also ensure the reasonable interests and operating environment of sugar enterprises.
The local government in the main sugar producing areas and the sugar manufacturing enterprises are mutually coordinated and mutually reinforcing. The sugar manufacturing enterprises are the root of the sugar farmers. Without the sugar manufacturing enterprises, the sugar farmers can only replant, which will form a vicious circle. The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly pointed out that "we should transform the functions of the government, deepen the streamlining of administration and delegation of power, innovate the way of supervision, and build a clean, efficient, and people satisfied service-oriented government." This requires local governments in major sugar producing areas to focus more on supervision and leadership and more on services.
Finally, with regard to the sugar price trend that the market is most concerned about, the current continuous listing of new sugar and the pressure on production funds of sugar enterprises do exist, but this is determined by the characteristics of the sugar crushing and marketing industry in each season. As for various rumors, no matter whether the direct subsidy is implemented or not, and no matter how the state reserve stocks out of the warehouse, it can be determined that the domestic white sugar cannot be operated under the production cost for a long time. It is necessary to deeply understand the actual meaning of direct subsidy, ex warehouse of the national reserve, and setting a higher sugarcane purchase price, as well as its profound significance. The short-term sugar line has a rebound requirement, and it is difficult to complete the reversal before the effective station is on the medium and short-term moving average, so it should be treated as tamping the bottom.
Editor in charge: Wu Huazhang
