China Securities News (reporter Ma Shuang) At the "12th Beijing Institute of Materials Science and Technology Futures Forum - 30 Year Summit Forum of Futures Market" held on November 17, Chang Qing, professor of the Futures and Financial Derivatives Research Center of China Agricultural University, made a theme report entitled "30 Year Development History and Trend of China's Futures Market". Chang Qing pointed out that the development of China's futures market is closely related to the overall social reform. However, in the current overall social process, China is still short of futures talents, especially those with keen perception and application ability to the market.
Li Qiang, the former full-time vice president and secretary-general of the China Futures Association, proposed that with China's deepening reform and expanding opening up, the futures market is in urgent need of derivatives professionals; From the analysis of the demand of spot enterprises and financial institutions for derivatives talents, there is an urgent need for eight high-end talents in the futures market, including financial derivatives talents, futures and cash combination talents, futures investment advisory talents, fund manager talents (traders), overseas futures talents, product design talents, quantitative risk control talents, and IT talents.
Liu Chunyan, professor of Tongji University School of Law, stressed that marketization, legalization and internationalization are the signs of mature futures markets. The 30-year history of China's futures market is the embodiment of the process of constantly pursuing marketization, legalization and internationalization. Liu Chunyan also mentioned that although the futures market has experienced 30 years of development, its historical task of marketization, legalization and internationalization has a long way to go. The Futures Law has not yet been promulgated, which is also due to the challenges brought about by the optimization of market institutions and emerging technologies.
Feng Yucheng, deputy director and associate professor of the Futures Research Institute of the School of Economics of Beijing Materials University, shared the Special Research Report on Futures and Derivatives. The main content of the report is under the supply side structural reform Screw thread steel An empirical study of futures price discovery function. The research content selects 2315 groups of futures and spot price data from March 30, 2009 to September 30, 2018; This paper empirically analyzes the price discovery function between the spot price of rebar in South China, North China, East China and Northeast China, as well as the national average spot price and the corresponding futures price in the two periods before and after the implementation of the supply side reform, and draws the following conclusions:
First, after the implementation of the supply side structural reform, the volatility of rebar futures price and spot price is greater than that before the implementation of the supply side structural reform. At the same time, the guiding role of rebar futures price on spot price is increasing. However, due to regional differences, the effectiveness of rebar futures prices guiding spot prices varies in different regions. Before the implementation of the supply side structural reform, the guiding relationship between the rebar futures market price and the spot market price in North China, South China and Northeast China was two-way, that is, mutual guidance, and the guiding relationship between the spot market price and the futures market price was more obvious. There is also a two-way guiding relationship between the futures price in East China and the spot price in Nanjing, while the spot price in Shanghai guides the futures price, and the national average rebar price also has a two-way guiding relationship. After the implementation of the supply side structural reform, the average futures price of rebar in South China, North China and the whole country guided the spot price. In East China and Northeast China, there is a two-way guiding relationship between futures prices and spot prices.
Secondly, the impact of rebar futures prices on spot prices is faster and stronger than that of spot prices on futures prices, and after the implementation of supply side structural reform, the impact of spot prices on futures prices is far less than that before the implementation of supply side structural reform, The impact of futures on cash at the initial stage is much greater than that before the implementation of supply side structural reform.
Thirdly, due to the influence of economic cycle, industry cycle and monetary policy, the relationship between rebar futures prices and spot prices is more sensitive to external factors after the implementation of supply side structural reform, which adds great difficulty to the prediction of futures prices and spot prices.
In terms of policy, Feng Yucheng suggested that the government and industry associations should strengthen the release and dissemination function of supply and demand, inventory, policy and other information, and improve the efficiency of information transmission; Introduce foreign investors, relax restrictions on institutional investors, curb excessive speculation, and promote market effectiveness; Launched rebar options to enrich risk management tools. Through the above measures, the rebar futures market under the supply side structural reform will be strengthened to guide the price of the spot market, realize the healthy development of the futures and spot market, and improve the market effectiveness.
Editor in charge: Zhang Yao
