Cold winter Steam coal How to spend it? "Cooling down" or "warming up"?
Source: Coal Resources Network
Affected by the import coal restriction policy, the internal views of the traders around the Bohai Sea port on the future market are divided. Although there are a few low price deals in the market, most of the traders' quotations have stabilized, and the downstream inquiries have increased slightly, but the number of firm deals is still small.
Analysts pointed out that although the import coal policy has been basically confirmed to be tightened, it has a great impact on the future market when the downstream power plants still have high inventory demand and low demand. It is expected that the coal price will remain stable and weak in the short term. In the later period, we will continue to pay attention to the import coal policy, environmental protection and downstream developments.
On November 15, at the 2018 (6th) International Thermal Coal Resources and Market Summit Forum held in Beijing, Liu Xinhua, the deputy general manager of Fenwei Energy Information Services Co., Ltd., told reporters at the interface that the relevant national departments have recently increased restrictions on coal imports, and deployed coal imports by the end of the year through regional meetings or notices, In order to achieve the goal of balancing import volume throughout the year. "The statistics of imported coal in the remaining 46 days of this year will decline significantly, and some imports will be reflected in January and February next year, which will push up imports in January and February," she said.
In terms of downstream power plants, the terminal power plants maintain long-term cooperative procurement, the market coal procurement is less, and the overall port transaction is depressed. Industry insiders believe that the inventory of power plants is relatively high now, and the impact of imported coal can be offset by de stocking during peak coal consumption, but the tightening of imported coal can at least ensure that the market price of coal will not fall sharply.
As of November 16, the inventory of the six major power plants in the coastal area totaled 17.419 million tons, an increase of 1.904 million tons or 12.3% over the same period of the previous month, and the daily coal consumption was 531000 tons. Recently, it has continued to operate below the level of 600000 tons, an increase of 28000 tons or 5.6% over the same period of the previous month. The available days of coal storage are 32.8 days, 2 days more than the same period last month.
According to the analysis of Zhongtai Securities, the raw coal output in October was 305 million tons, up 8% year on year. The low base factor led to a high growth rate. The daily average raw coal output was 9.84 million tons/day, down about 360000 tons/day month on month. The overall output release is still within a reasonable range. The growth rate of thermal power generation in downstream demand has slowed down, but cement coke The growth rate continued to improve, and the overall demand side showed some resilience.
In October, the import coal volume continued to decline month on month. The arrival of the heating season will significantly increase the demand for coal, while the release of domestic production is relatively stable. The regulation of import coal will largely affect the supply and demand pattern of the industry. In the future, we need to continue to pay attention to the implementation of the restriction policy. Under the support of winter peak season, import restriction expectation and environmental protection and security inspection suppression supply, the price of steam coal shows a medium high fluctuation trend, and the expected price fluctuation range is 600-700 yuan/ton.
In view of the trend of coal price in the later period, Xinda Securities pointed out in its latest research report that coal for cement chemical industry was replenished in the early period, but the range of coal types was small and the inventory capacity was limited, resulting in a short replenishment cycle and lack of sustainability. In addition, the accelerated transfer of coal inventory to the south and the high coal inventory in the middle and lower reaches will suppress the coal price to a certain extent; On the other hand, considering that the weather is getting colder, the demand will gradually improve, and the environmental protection and safety supervision in the production area will be further strengthened near the end of the year to restrict supply, and the mine mouth coal price is expected to be high and stable. The port coal price under high cost and high inventory will maintain a high and narrow fluctuation trend, and focus on the pace and strength of demand recovery in the later stage. At this stage, the power plant's early replenishment makes the market of traditional coal in peak season overdrawn ahead of time while "off-season is not light".
According to the analysis of Sichuan Finance Securities, under the background of high inventory, most power plants mainly purchase long-term coal. The enthusiasm of market coal purchase is poor, and the port coal price is still weak. The port coal is transported to the pithead coal, and the pithead coal in Yulin, Datong, Ordos and other places has declined in varying degrees. In terms of imported coal, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other places have held import coal conferences in succession. From the spirit of the conference, the regulatory authorities will strictly implement the control of imported coal, and the "level control" of imported coal may form a certain support for subsequent coal prices. In the short term, the trend of coal price will still be determined by the degree of repair of the coal consumption level of the power plant after the heating season. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the coal consumption level of the power plant and the coal inventory consumption of the power plant.
China Coal Resources Network learned from a trader in Inner Mongolia that recently the price reduction of coal mines in Inner Mongolia has increased, and the range has expanded. The cost of Mongolian coal shipping ports is about 630 yuan. The price of the place of origin is somewhat unsustainable, which may affect the port price to continue to decline in the short term. At the same time, the news of short-term imported coal has not driven the increase of demand, and the port place of origin may have a linkage decline recently.
On November 16, the latest CCI thermal coal price showed that the price of CCI5500 thermal coal was 630 yuan/ton, 1 yuan/ton lower than that of the previous period, and 42 yuan/ton or 6.3% lower than that of the same period last month. The price of CCI5000 thermal coal was 560 yuan/ton, 2 yuan/ton lower than the price of the previous period, and 45 yuan/ton or 7.4% lower than the level of the same period last month.
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