Down 300! 30 steel mills all fell! Fall to the point where you can't stop
Source: Sinosteel
Today, the steel price continued to fall sharply. Although the billet rebounded from 30 to 3580, the spot price still fell sharply; In addition, the quotation of the steel plant is all lowered today.
Quotation today: the whole line drops sharply
According to the statistics of China Steel Network, there are 24 major markets in China today Screw thread steel The average price of 20mm HRB400E is 4612 yuan/ton, 68 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day.
The average price of 4.75 hot rolled coils in 24 major markets nationwide is 3930 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of 14-20mm ordinary medium plate in 23 major markets nationwide is 4129 yuan/ton, 48 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day.
Spot stocks fell sharply, and futures steel fell significantly. The main reason is that the graph shows the trend of short positions, which was caused by the superposition of the two factors: the steel billet fell sharply last Saturday.
The trend of black plate in futures market is weak today, except iron ore In addition, other varieties declined. The thread dropped 1.87% to 3838, Hot coil Fell 0.33% to 3615, coke Down 1.87% to 2363, coking coal It fell 0.25% to 1382.5, while iron ore rose 1.64% to 527.5. The trend of Shigang is weak, approaching the important pass of 3800, and the moving average remains empty. Iron ore and coking coal are relatively strong, It is expected that the steel drop will continue to fall slightly and the iron ore will rise slightly in the evening.
Moreover, the quotation of steel mills fell across the board. The specific price adjustment information is as follows:
All lowered by more than 100
The price of Shanxi Jianlong Building Materials fell by 110-130 yuan/ton, the price of Licheng Taihang Building Materials fell by 90-170 yuan/ton, the price of Yuxi Yukun Building Materials fell by 50-100 yuan/ton, the price of Shougang Changzhi Building Materials fell by 130 yuan/ton, the price of Dacheng I-beam fell by 150 yuan/ton, the price of Tangshan Tangcheng I-beam fell by 150 yuan/ton, the price of Tangshan Dingjin I-beam fell by 150 yuan/ton, the price of Hongqiang angle steel fell by 150 yuan/ton, the price of Zhengfeng angle steel fell by 150 yuan/ton The price of EU channel steel is reduced by 140 yuan/ton. The price of Ruixing/Ruilong channel steel is reduced by 140 yuan/ton. The price of Xinhang channel steel is reduced by 150 yuan/ton. The price of power steel channel steel is reduced by 150 yuan/ton. The price of Xinyiyuan H-beam steel is reduced by 100 yuan/ton. The price of Hongrun H-beam steel is reduced by 130 yuan/ton. The price of Benxi steel plate is reduced by 200-300 yuan/ton
Why does the price of steel keep falling? There are the following factors:
1. Output: the output of rebar in October increased by 6.72% year on year
According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in October 2018, China's steel bar output was 19.125 million tons, with a month on month increase of 4.62% and a year-on-year increase of 6.72%; From January to October, the cumulative output was 172.114 million tons, a decrease of 1.098 million tons or 0.63% over the same period last year.
In October, the output of wire rod (wire rod) in China was 13.312 million tons, up 2.96% month on month and 12.23% year on year. The cumulative output from January to October was 119.378 million tons, an increase of 6.241 million tons or 5.52% over the same period last year.
From the perspective of output, the steel plant has made full preparations for environmental protection and production restriction, and has invested heavily in updating environmental protection equipment. Although there are peak load shifting and production restriction measures, the overall impact on output is not significant, and the output of the steel plant is still large. This conclusion can also be supported by the following data.
2. Production limit: the operating rate of the steel plant's blast furnace is at a historical peak
At present, the heating season has come, how about the production restriction in Tangshan? According to the monitoring, at present, the blast furnace of Tangshan Steel Plant has not been shut down in a large area. Judging from the current production situation in various regions of Hebei, the three blast furnaces that were shut down in the earlier stage resumed production, and today no new blast furnaces were shut down. The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of the blast furnaces have increased, and the supply chain ratio has changed slightly.
The operating rate of the blast furnace in Handan continues to be at a historical high. Last year, due to the poor air quality in the early stage, Handan entered the production limit in advance from October. The current supply of Handan is higher than that of last year.
Overall, the overall off peak production of Hebei's blast furnace operating rate is lower than expected, and the supply is expected to remain at a high level.
3. Inventory: accumulated inventory with high price and weak demand for winter storage
According to today's inventory data, the inventory is still in the declining cycle, so although the inventory has pressure on the price, the inventory data is still at a low level, so the pressure on the price is not so great. What is the reason for the increase of steel mill inventory?
The weak implementation of environmental protection is one of the reasons for the increase of steel plant inventory; The increase of factory warehouse indicates the decrease of downstream purchase demand; This week, equipment maintenance in steel plants began to increase generally, so the output of building materials announced next week is likely to slow down, or decline slightly, and the pressure on factories and warehouses will also decline slightly. However, the inventory change mainly depends on the winter storage.
4. Demand: construction site shutdown, demand decline
As a major demand industry for threads, it is difficult for real estate to increase in December. For one thing, the weather is getting cold, which is not suitable for outdoor construction. For another, the air quality has worsened recently. Northern cities generally implement shutdown measures on construction sites, leading to an overall decline in demand.
Whether it is a new construction site, environmental constraints or seasonal characteristics, it indicates that the demand decline trend is obvious, so the decline in procurement caused by declining demand is also gradually emerging.
conclusion
The trend of steel price decline is determined by high output and low demand, and the 70% drop in billet last Saturday is the fuse of today's overall sharp drop in steel price; In addition, the market has a strong bearish mentality, which makes the future trend of steel prices worse.
It is expected that the steel price will continue to fall by 30-50% tomorrow. It is suggested that everyone should actively ship goods and not copy the bottom.
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