Chapter II Analysis of World Polypropylene Supply and Demand
2.1 Overview of world polypropylene supply and demand
From 2002 to 2011, the accelerated expansion of polypropylene in Asia and the Middle East has driven the rapid growth of global capacity, with an average annual growth rate of 4.4%; The annual average growth rate of output reached 5.1%; The average annual growth rate of consumption reached 5.3%, from 34.38 million tons to 52.05 million tons. From 2002 to 2011, the average operating rate of global polypropylene plants showed a trend of rising first and then falling, reaching the highest value of 92.6% in 2004. In the following years, due to the increase of new capacity, the operating rate showed a downward trend, and by 2011, the operating rate of world polypropylene plants decreased to 81.7%.
In 2011, the global PP production capacity was 64.22 million tons/year, the operating rate was 81.7%, the output was 52.47 million tons, the demand was 52.05 million tons, and the production and demand were basically balanced. The global PP production in 2011 slightly increased compared with 2010, while the demand decreased by 30000 tons compared with 2010.
In 2011, Asia was still the main production and consumption area of polypropylene, with a production capacity of 31.15 million tons, accounting for 48.5% of the world's total production capacity, and a demand of 27.02 million tons, accounting for 51.9% of the world's total demand.
In 2011, the production capacity of the Middle East was 7.83 million tons/year, an increase of 3.71 million tons/year compared with 2008. The demand was 3.43 million tons, and the output was 5.89 million tons. The Middle East is a major exporter of polypropylene.
Chart 6 World polypropylene supply and demand in 2011 (10000 tons/year)
region |
capacity |
yield |
Import volume |
Export volume |
Consumption |
North America |
nine hundred and one point two |
seven hundred and fifty-six |
one hundred and thirty-four point nine |
one hundred and seventy-seven point five |
seven hundred and eighteen point one |
South America |
three hundred and twelve point nine |
two hundred and fifty-five point three nine six one |
eighty-two point nine |
sixty-six point five |
two hundred and sixty-eight point four |
Western Europe |
nine hundred and forty point five |
eight hundred and forty-two point one |
one hundred and twenty-six point six |
one hundred and eighty-four point six |
seven hundred and eighty-one point five |
the Baltic |
eighty-six point five |
eighty-two point nine |
thirty-nine point nine |
fifteen point six |
one hundred and seven point two |
Central Europe |
one hundred and forty-two |
one hundred and twenty-two point four three seven nine |
ninety-four |
seventy point two |
one hundred and forty-six point four |
Middle East |
seven hundred and eighty-three point four |
five hundred and eighty-nine point three five seven one |
two hundred and ten point one |
four hundred and forty point one |
three hundred and forty-two point eight |
Africa |
one hundred and forty point seven |
eighty-one point five |
eighty-eight point four |
thirty-one point eight |
one hundred and thirty-eight point three |
Asia |
three thousand one hundred and fifteen point one |
two thousand five hundred and seventeen point three |
eight hundred and thirty-six point five |
six hundred and twenty-seven |
two thousand seven hundred and two |
2.2 Analysis of world polypropylene supply
2.2.1 Analysis on supply structure of polypropylene in the world
From the perspective of production capacity distribution in major regions of the world from 2006 to 2011, the world's PP production capacity is mainly concentrated in Northeast Asia, North America, Western Europe, the Middle East and other regions. By 2011, these four regions had concentrated about 78% of the world's PP production capacity. In terms of growth rate, the two production regions of North America and Western Europe grew slowly. The Middle East relies on the cost advantage of raw materials to expand its production capacity in recent years, and its products are mainly exported to the Far East, which has huge demand. In recent years, China's production capacity has increased rapidly driven by strong domestic demand. In 2012, China's polypropylene production capacity reached 12.18 million tons, making it the world's largest polypropylene producer. Other major polypropylene producing countries and regions mainly include the United States, South Korea, Japan, France, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Saudi Arabia, India, etc.
Table 7 Polypropylene production capacity in major regions of the world from 2006 to 2011 (10000 tons/year)
Chart 8 Distribution of polypropylene production capacity in the world in 2011 (10000 tons/year)
country |
capacity |
country |
capacity |
Asia |
three thousand one hundred and fifteen |
North America |
nine hundred and one point two |
China |
one thousand and ninety-nine |
Canada |
fourteen point three |
India |
three hundred and seventy |
Mexico |
sixty-four |
Indonesia |
sixty-two point five |
U.S.A |
eight hundred and forty-three point seven |
Japan |
three hundred and seventeen point six |
Central and South America |
two hundred and eighty-seven |
the republic of korea |
three hundred and seventy point five |
Argentina |
thirty-one |
Malaysia |
fifty-eight point five |
Brazil |
one hundred and ninety-two |
Other Asian countries |
two |
Caribbean |
zero |
the Philippines |
thirty-four |
Central America |
zero |
Singapore |
one hundred and three point five |
Chile |
fifteen |
Taiwan, China |
one hundred and thirty-one |
Columbia |
thirty-eight |
Thailand |
one hundred and twenty-four |
Venezuela |
eleven |
Central and Eastern Europe |
two hundred and twenty-eight point five |
Western Europe |
nine hundred and forty point five |
Russia |
one hundred and twenty-five |
Austria |
forty-three point five |
Czech Republic |
twenty-seven point five |
Benelux Community |
two hundred and ninety-seven point three |
Hungary |
twenty-eight |
Finland |
eighteen |
Other Eastern European countries |
twelve |
France |
one hundred and thirty-eight point five |
poland |
forty |
Germany |
two hundred and twenty-five point two |
Romania |
six |
Italy |
seventy-three |
Slovakia |
twenty-seven point five |
Norway |
seventeen point five |
Middle East |
seven hundred and eighty-three point four |
Other Western European countries |
eighteen |
Iran |
one hundred and three |
Spain |
eighty-seven |
Israel |
forty-five |
britain |
fifty |
Kuwait |
fourteen |
Africa |
one hundred and forty point seven |
Other Middle East countries |
thirty-four |
Egypt |
sixteen |
Saudi Arabia |
four hundred and ninety-five |
Nigeria |
eleven point seven |
turkey |
fourteen point four |
Other African countries |
fourteen point five |
Oceania |
thirty-one |
South Africa |
sixty-five |
Australia |
thirty-one |
|
|
2.2.2 Major polypropylene manufacturers in the world
In recent years, global polypropylene producers The number is gradually decreasing, and production plants are increasingly concentrated in the hands of a few large multinational companies. In 2011, the production capacity of the world's top ten polypropylene producers reached 33.23 million tons/year, accounting for 51.74% of the world's total polypropylene production capacity. SINOPEC (China Petrochemical Corporation The Group ranks second with the capacity of 4.92 million tons/year, accounting for 7.66% of the world's total capacity; PetroChina The natural gas group ranks seventh with 2.66 million tons/year capacity, accounting for 4.14% of the world's total capacity. In recent years, Saudi SABIC, Brazil Petrochemical and India Prudential and other companies have gradually moved up in the rankings. From the perspective of rankings, most of the top countries and regions are countries and regions with obvious resource advantages, advanced production technology and strong demand.
Chart 9 Production capacity of the world's top ten polypropylene producers in 2011 (10000 tons/year)
ranking |
Name of manufacturer |
throughput |
Proportion of production capacity |
one |
Lyonde Basil |
six hundred and eighty-one |
10.60% |
two |
Sinopec Group |
four hundred and ninety-two |
7.66% |
three |
Braskem |
three hundred and eighty |
5.92% |
four |
Saudi SABIC |
three hundred and ten |
4.83% |
five |
Samsung Total |
two hundred and eighty-five |
4.44% |
six |
Reliance India |
two hundred and seventy-five |
4.28% |
seven |
CNPC |
two hundred and sixty-six |
4.14% |
eight |
Formosa |
two hundred and twenty-five |
3.50% |
nine |
ExxonMobil |
two hundred and fifteen |
3.35% |
ten |
Nordic Chemical |
one hundred and ninety-four |
3.02% |
total |
three thousand three hundred and twenty-three |
51.74% |
2.3 Analysis of world polypropylene demand
2.3.1 Regional distribution of world polypropylene consumption
According to the statistics of PP demand in major regions of the world in recent six years, the major consumption regions of the world are concentrated in Northeast Asia, North America and Western Europe. In addition, the Middle East and Southeast Asia also have large demand. On the whole, the demand of major regions in the world shows an increasing trend, but the demand of North America and Western Europe, which belong to developed regions, declined after 2008 due to the impact of the financial crisis. The financial crisis triggered by the United States was a heavy blow to the developed economies, while the European region suffered from the impact of the debt crisis. The economy declined and the manufacturing industry shrank, thus weakening the local consumption demand. After the financial crisis broke out in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, the governments of all countries implemented loose economic stimulus policies to drive the growth of demand, and became one of the first regions to get rid of the financial crisis.
Table 10 Major Consumption Regions of Global Polypropylene from 2006 to 2011 (10000 tons)
In 2011, the total consumption of polypropylene in the world was about 52.046 million tons, an increase of about 5% over 2010. Asia, North America and Europe are the most important consumer countries and regions. In 2011, the total consumption of these three regions reached about 40.717 million tons, accounting for 80.3% of the world's total consumption. Among them, the consumption in North America is 7.181 million tons, accounting for 13.8% of the total consumption, that in Western Europe is 7.815 million tons, accounting for 15.02%, and that in Asia is 27.02 million tons, accounting for 51.9%.
Chart 11 World polypropylene consumption in 2011 (10000 tons)
region |
North America |
South America |
Western Europe |
the Baltic |
Central Europe |
Middle East |
Africa |
Asia |
Consumption |
seven hundred and eighteen point one |
two hundred and sixty-eight point four |
seven hundred and eighty-one point five |
one hundred and seven point two |
one hundred and forty-six point four |
three hundred and forty-two point eight |
one hundred and thirty-eight point three |
two thousand seven hundred and two |
Consumption ratio |
13.80% |
5.16% |
15.02% |
2.06% |
2.81% |
6.59% |
2.66% |
51.91% |
2.3.2 World polypropylene consumption structure
In terms of consumption, the products are mainly used to produce injection molded products, fibers, films, etc. In 2011, the demand for polypropylene for films was 12.352 million tons, accounting for 23.7% of the world's total consumption, the demand for polypropylene for fibers was 7.14 million tons, accounting for 13.7%, and the demand for polypropylene for wire drawing products was 9.153 million tons, accounting for 17.6%, The demand of injection molded products for polypropylene is 17.635 million tons, accounting for 33.9%; the demand of pipe products for polypropylene is 1.52 million tons, accounting for 2.9%; other aspects account for 6.9%. From the perspective of consumer countries in the world, the United States, China and Japan, as the top three economies in the world, have huge demand for polypropylene. From the perspective of product structure, injection molding and film products in various countries account for 50-70% of the total demand, which are the two largest product categories. Other categories that account for a large proportion are pipes, blow molding and extrusion molding, which also account for a large share of wire drawing materials and fiber materials in China.
Figure 12 World PP Consumption Structure in 2011
Chart 13 Global PP consumption in 2011 (10000 tons)
two thousand and eleven Global consumption structure in |
total |
Proportion |
Film and sheet |
one thousand two hundred and thirty-five point two |
23.73% |
Injection molding |
one thousand seven hundred and sixty-three point five |
33.88% |
Pipe |
one hundred and fifty-two |
2.92% |
Extrusion coating |
nine |
0.17% |
Blow molding |
fifty-eight |
1.11% |
fibre |
seven hundred and fourteen |
13.72% |
wire drawing |
nine hundred and fifteen point three |
17.59% |
other |
three hundred and fifty-seven point six |
6.87% |
Chart 14 Consumption structure of countries in the world (unit: 10000 tons)
country |
products |
two thousand and six year |
two thousand and seven year |
two thousand and eight year |
two thousand and nine year |
two thousand and ten year |
two thousand and eleven year |
U.S.A |
Film and sheet |
eighty-seven point one |
eighty-eight |
eighty-five |
ninety-two point two |
one hundred and three point one |
one hundred and three point eight |
Injection molding |
two hundred and sixteen point five |
two hundred and twenty-five point three |
two hundred point six |
one hundred and eighty-one point three |
one hundred and eighty-six point four |
one hundred and eighty-one point four |
Pipe |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Extrusion coating |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Blow molding |
nine point six |
eight point seven |
eight |
eight |
nine point two |
nine point three |
Wire and cable |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Rotational molding |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
fibre |
one hundred and thirty-one point eight |
one hundred and twenty-three point five |
one hundred and seven point five |
eighty-seven point seven |
ninety-two point five |
ninety-one |
wire drawing |
ten |
ten point two |
ten point two |
nine point seven |
ten |
ten point two |
other |
one hundred and seventy-three point six |
one hundred and fifty-six point seven |
one hundred and forty point five |
one hundred and thirty-three point nine |
one hundred and sixty-four point six |
one hundred and sixty-five point two |
Saudi Arabia |
Film and sheet |
four point seven |
five point nine |
six point nine |
seven point four |
eight point three |
nine point six |
Injection molding |
nine point one |
ten point six |
twelve |
twelve point four |
thirteen point seven |
fifteen point four |
Pipe |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Extrusion coating |
-- |
-- |
-- |
- |
-- |
-- |
Blow molding |
-- |
-- |
-- |
- |
-- |
-- |
Wire and cable |
-- |
-- |
-- |
- |
-- |
-- |
Rotational molding |
-- |
-- |
-- |
- |
-- |
-- |
fibre |
four point two |
four point nine |
five point six |
five point seven |
six point two |
seven |
wire drawing |
five point nine |
six point eight |
eight point one |
eight point four |
nine point one |
ten point four |
other |
one point one |
one point four |
one point six |
one point seven |
one point nine |
two point two |
Japan |
Film and sheet |
seventy-one point three |
sixty-nine point three |
sixty-six point one |
fifty point seven |
fifty-nine point nine |
sixty point seven |
Injection molding |
ninety-three |
ninety point five |
eighty-seven point six |
sixty-two point eight |
seventy-five point four |
seventy-five point six |
Pipe |
seventeen point one |
sixteen point five |
sixteen point nine |
eleven point nine |
fourteen |
thirteen point nine |
Extrusion coating |
zero point one |
zero point one |
zero point one |
zero point one |
zero point one |
zero point one |
Blow molding |
one point three |
one point three |
one point five |
one |
one point two |
one point two |
Wire and cable |
-- |
-- |
-- |
- |
-- |
-- |
Rotational molding |
-- |
-- |
-- |
- |
-- |
-- |
fibre |
thirty-one point six |
thirty-one point seven |
thirty-three point two |
twenty-five point three |
twenty-nine point seven |
thirty point three |
wire drawing |
fifty point seven |
fifty-eight point two |
fifty-seven point two |
forty-seven point one |
fifty-five point five |
fifty-seven point six |
other |
six point three |
six point one |
four point eight |
three point four |
four point one |
four |
Injection molding |
one hundred and seventy-nine point nine |
two hundred and twenty-five point eight |
two hundred and twenty-two point one |
two hundred and ninety-six point three |
three hundred and twenty-one point seven |
three hundred and fifty-seven point six |
Pipe |
sixty point six |
sixty-four point two |
sixty-five point six |
seventy-four point eight |
eighty-one point three |
eighty-six point three |
Extrusion coating |
zero point five |
zero point five |
zero point five |
zero point five |
zero point six |
zero point six |
Blow molding |
four point six |
five point two |
five point seven |
six point two |
seven |
seven point six |
Wire and cable |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rotational molding |
-- |
-- |
-- |
- |
-- |
-- |
fibre |
one hundred and twelve point one |
one hundred and twenty-three point one |
one hundred and twenty-nine |
one hundred and fifty-nine point two |
one hundred and seventy-two point three |
one hundred and eighty-seven point eight |
wire drawing |
three hundred and thirty point two |
three hundred and fifty-one point five |
three hundred and thirty-nine point eight |
three hundred and ninety-four point eight |
four hundred and thirty-six point nine |
four hundred and sixty-nine point two |
other |
twenty-two point two |
twenty-three point five |
eighteen point eight |
twenty-one point seven |
twenty-three point five |
twenty-five point one |
Thailand |
Film and sheet |
twenty-eight |
thirty-one point two |
thirty point eight |
thirty point two |
thirty-one point two |
thirty-two point four |
Injection molding |
twenty-seven |
thirty point one |
twenty-nine point two |
twenty-eight point three |
twenty-nine point two |
thirty point one |
Pipe |
zero point one |
zero point one |
zero point one |
zero point one |
zero point one |
zero point one |
Extrusion coating |
one point seven |
one point eight |
one point nine |
one point nine |
two |
two |
Blow molding |
zero point nine |
one |
one |
one |
one |
one |
Wire and cable |
-- |
-- |
-- |
- |
-- |
-- |
Rotational molding |
-- |
-- |
-- |
- |
-- |
-- |
fibre |
seven point two |
eight point one |
seven point eight |
seven point three |
seven point four |
seven point four |
wire drawing |
twenty point seven |
twenty-three |
twenty-two point six |
twenty-two point one |
twenty-three point six |
twenty-four point six |
other |
zero point nine |
one |
zero point nine |
zero point eight |
zero point eight |
zero point eight |
Australia |
Film and sheet |
eight point five |
eight point seven |
eight point nine |
nine |
nine point two |
nine point eight |
Injection molding |
eight point two |
eight point four |
eight point five |
eight point five |
eight point six |
nine point one |
Pipe |
-- |
-- |
-- |
- |
-- |
-- |
Extrusion coating |
zero point five |
zero point five |
zero point five |
zero point six |
zero point six |
zero point six |
Blow molding |
zero point three |
zero point three |
zero point three |
zero point three |
zero point three |
zero point three |
Wire and cable |
-- |
-- |
-- |
- |
-- |
-- |
Rotational molding |
-- |
-- |
-- |
- |
-- |
-- |
fibre |
two point two |
two point three |
two point three |
two point two |
two point two |
two point two |
wire drawing |
six point three |
six point five |
six point six |
six point six |
seven |
seven point four |
other |
zero point three |
zero point three |
zero point three |
zero point three |
zero point two |
zero point three |
2.4 Analysis of World Polypropylene Trade
From the perspective of PP import and export in major regions of the world from 2006 to 2011, North America and Europe, as the main production and consumption regions with developed industries and high-end raw materials, have relatively mature markets, small demand increment, high product grade, and export volume is significantly greater than import volume. South America's imports and exports are relatively balanced. Africa is constrained by technology and other factors, and the import volume is significantly greater than the export volume, but the absolute volume of both is significantly lower than that of other regions of the world. The Middle East is completing the transformation from a pure oil export to a variety of petrochemical products export. With the low-cost advantage of raw materials, the upsurge of petrochemical construction in the Middle East continues. The export volume of polypropylene in the Middle East has soared in recent years, with an average export growth rate of 34.58% from 2006 to 2011. The import volume has not fluctuated in recent years. There are obvious regional differences in Asia. The market structure of relatively developed regions such as South Korea and Japan is relatively mature, while China and Southeast Asia are still the main demand regions.
Table 15 Global polypropylene imports from 2006 to 2011
Table 16 Global polypropylene export from 2006 to 2011