Analysis of world polypropylene supply and demand

16:39, January 28, 2014    Dalian Commodity Exchange

Chapter II Analysis of World Polypropylene Supply and Demand

2.1 Overview of world polypropylene supply and demand

From 2002 to 2011, the accelerated expansion of polypropylene in Asia and the Middle East has driven the rapid growth of global capacity, with an average annual growth rate of 4.4%; The annual average growth rate of output reached 5.1%; The average annual growth rate of consumption reached 5.3%, from 34.38 million tons to 52.05 million tons. From 2002 to 2011, the average operating rate of global polypropylene plants showed a trend of rising first and then falling, reaching the highest value of 92.6% in 2004. In the following years, due to the increase of new capacity, the operating rate showed a downward trend, and by 2011, the operating rate of world polypropylene plants decreased to 81.7%.

In 2011, the global PP production capacity was 64.22 million tons/year, the operating rate was 81.7%, the output was 52.47 million tons, the demand was 52.05 million tons, and the production and demand were basically balanced. The global PP production in 2011 slightly increased compared with 2010, while the demand decreased by 30000 tons compared with 2010.

In 2011, Asia was still the main production and consumption area of polypropylene, with a production capacity of 31.15 million tons, accounting for 48.5% of the world's total production capacity, and a demand of 27.02 million tons, accounting for 51.9% of the world's total demand.

In 2011, the production capacity of the Middle East was 7.83 million tons/year, an increase of 3.71 million tons/year compared with 2008. The demand was 3.43 million tons, and the output was 5.89 million tons. The Middle East is a major exporter of polypropylene.

Chart 6 World polypropylene supply and demand in 2011 (10000 tons/year)

region capacity yield Import volume Export volume Consumption
North America nine hundred and one point two seven hundred and fifty-six one hundred and thirty-four point nine one hundred and seventy-seven point five seven hundred and eighteen point one
South America three hundred and twelve point nine two hundred and fifty-five point three nine six one eighty-two point nine sixty-six point five two hundred and sixty-eight point four
Western Europe nine hundred and forty point five eight hundred and forty-two point one one hundred and twenty-six point six one hundred and eighty-four point six seven hundred and eighty-one point five
the Baltic eighty-six point five eighty-two point nine thirty-nine point nine fifteen point six one hundred and seven point two
Central Europe one hundred and forty-two one hundred and twenty-two point four three seven nine ninety-four seventy point two one hundred and forty-six point four
Middle East seven hundred and eighty-three point four five hundred and eighty-nine point three five seven one two hundred and ten point one four hundred and forty point one three hundred and forty-two point eight
Africa one hundred and forty point seven eighty-one point five eighty-eight point four thirty-one point eight one hundred and thirty-eight point three
Asia three thousand one hundred and fifteen point one two thousand five hundred and seventeen point three eight hundred and thirty-six point five six hundred and twenty-seven two thousand seven hundred and two

2.2 Analysis of world polypropylene supply

2.2.1 Analysis on supply structure of polypropylene in the world

From the perspective of production capacity distribution in major regions of the world from 2006 to 2011, the world's PP production capacity is mainly concentrated in Northeast Asia, North America, Western Europe, the Middle East and other regions. By 2011, these four regions had concentrated about 78% of the world's PP production capacity. In terms of growth rate, the two production regions of North America and Western Europe grew slowly. The Middle East relies on the cost advantage of raw materials to expand its production capacity in recent years, and its products are mainly exported to the Far East, which has huge demand. In recent years, China's production capacity has increased rapidly driven by strong domestic demand. In 2012, China's polypropylene production capacity reached 12.18 million tons, making it the world's largest polypropylene producer. Other major polypropylene producing countries and regions mainly include the United States, South Korea, Japan, France, Belgium, Germany, Italy, Saudi Arabia, India, etc.

Table 7 Polypropylene production capacity in major regions of the world from 2006 to 2011 (10000 tons/year)

Chart 8 Distribution of polypropylene production capacity in the world in 2011 (10000 tons/year)

country capacity country capacity
Asia three thousand one hundred and fifteen North America nine hundred and one point two
China one thousand and ninety-nine Canada fourteen point three
India three hundred and seventy Mexico sixty-four
Indonesia sixty-two point five U.S.A eight hundred and forty-three point seven
Japan three hundred and seventeen point six Central and South America two hundred and eighty-seven
the republic of korea three hundred and seventy point five Argentina thirty-one
Malaysia fifty-eight point five Brazil one hundred and ninety-two
Other Asian countries two Caribbean zero
the Philippines thirty-four Central America zero
Singapore one hundred and three point five Chile fifteen
Taiwan, China one hundred and thirty-one Columbia thirty-eight
Thailand one hundred and twenty-four Venezuela eleven
Central and Eastern Europe two hundred and twenty-eight point five Western Europe nine hundred and forty point five
Russia one hundred and twenty-five Austria forty-three point five
Czech Republic twenty-seven point five Benelux Community two hundred and ninety-seven point three
Hungary twenty-eight Finland eighteen
Other Eastern European countries twelve France one hundred and thirty-eight point five
poland forty Germany two hundred and twenty-five point two
Romania six Italy seventy-three
Slovakia twenty-seven point five Norway seventeen point five
Middle East seven hundred and eighty-three point four Other Western European countries eighteen
Iran one hundred and three Spain eighty-seven
Israel forty-five britain fifty
Kuwait fourteen Africa one hundred and forty point seven
Other Middle East countries thirty-four Egypt sixteen
Saudi Arabia four hundred and ninety-five Nigeria eleven point seven
turkey fourteen point four Other African countries fourteen point five
Oceania thirty-one South Africa sixty-five
Australia thirty-one    

  2.2.2 Major polypropylene manufacturers in the world

    In recent years, global polypropylene producers The number is gradually decreasing, and production plants are increasingly concentrated in the hands of a few large multinational companies. In 2011, the production capacity of the world's top ten polypropylene producers reached 33.23 million tons/year, accounting for 51.74% of the world's total polypropylene production capacity. SINOPEC (China Petrochemical Corporation The Group ranks second with the capacity of 4.92 million tons/year, accounting for 7.66% of the world's total capacity; PetroChina The natural gas group ranks seventh with 2.66 million tons/year capacity, accounting for 4.14% of the world's total capacity. In recent years, Saudi SABIC, Brazil Petrochemical and India Prudential and other companies have gradually moved up in the rankings. From the perspective of rankings, most of the top countries and regions are countries and regions with obvious resource advantages, advanced production technology and strong demand.

Chart 9 Production capacity of the world's top ten polypropylene producers in 2011 (10000 tons/year)

ranking Name of manufacturer throughput Proportion of production capacity
one Lyonde Basil six hundred and eighty-one 10.60%
two Sinopec Group four hundred and ninety-two 7.66%
three Braskem three hundred and eighty 5.92%
four Saudi SABIC three hundred and ten 4.83%
five Samsung Total two hundred and eighty-five 4.44%
six Reliance India two hundred and seventy-five 4.28%
seven CNPC two hundred and sixty-six 4.14%
eight Formosa two hundred and twenty-five 3.50%
nine ExxonMobil two hundred and fifteen 3.35%
ten Nordic Chemical one hundred and ninety-four 3.02%
total three thousand three hundred and twenty-three 51.74%

2.3 Analysis of world polypropylene demand

2.3.1 Regional distribution of world polypropylene consumption

According to the statistics of PP demand in major regions of the world in recent six years, the major consumption regions of the world are concentrated in Northeast Asia, North America and Western Europe. In addition, the Middle East and Southeast Asia also have large demand. On the whole, the demand of major regions in the world shows an increasing trend, but the demand of North America and Western Europe, which belong to developed regions, declined after 2008 due to the impact of the financial crisis. The financial crisis triggered by the United States was a heavy blow to the developed economies, while the European region suffered from the impact of the debt crisis. The economy declined and the manufacturing industry shrank, thus weakening the local consumption demand. After the financial crisis broke out in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, the governments of all countries implemented loose economic stimulus policies to drive the growth of demand, and became one of the first regions to get rid of the financial crisis.

Table 10 Major Consumption Regions of Global Polypropylene from 2006 to 2011 (10000 tons)

In 2011, the total consumption of polypropylene in the world was about 52.046 million tons, an increase of about 5% over 2010. Asia, North America and Europe are the most important consumer countries and regions. In 2011, the total consumption of these three regions reached about 40.717 million tons, accounting for 80.3% of the world's total consumption. Among them, the consumption in North America is 7.181 million tons, accounting for 13.8% of the total consumption, that in Western Europe is 7.815 million tons, accounting for 15.02%, and that in Asia is 27.02 million tons, accounting for 51.9%.

Chart 11 World polypropylene consumption in 2011 (10000 tons)

region North America South America Western Europe the Baltic Central Europe Middle East Africa Asia
Consumption seven hundred and eighteen point one two hundred and sixty-eight point four seven hundred and eighty-one point five one hundred and seven point two one hundred and forty-six point four three hundred and forty-two point eight one hundred and thirty-eight point three two thousand seven hundred and two
Consumption ratio 13.80% 5.16% 15.02% 2.06% 2.81% 6.59% 2.66% 51.91%

2.3.2 World polypropylene consumption structure

In terms of consumption, the products are mainly used to produce injection molded products, fibers, films, etc. In 2011, the demand for polypropylene for films was 12.352 million tons, accounting for 23.7% of the world's total consumption, the demand for polypropylene for fibers was 7.14 million tons, accounting for 13.7%, and the demand for polypropylene for wire drawing products was 9.153 million tons, accounting for 17.6%, The demand of injection molded products for polypropylene is 17.635 million tons, accounting for 33.9%; the demand of pipe products for polypropylene is 1.52 million tons, accounting for 2.9%; other aspects account for 6.9%. From the perspective of consumer countries in the world, the United States, China and Japan, as the top three economies in the world, have huge demand for polypropylene. From the perspective of product structure, injection molding and film products in various countries account for 50-70% of the total demand, which are the two largest product categories. Other categories that account for a large proportion are pipes, blow molding and extrusion molding, which also account for a large share of wire drawing materials and fiber materials in China.

Figure 12 World PP Consumption Structure in 2011

 Figure 12 World PP Consumption Structure in 2011

Chart 13 Global PP consumption in 2011 (10000 tons)

two thousand and eleven Global consumption structure in total Proportion
Film and sheet one thousand two hundred and thirty-five point two 23.73%
Injection molding one thousand seven hundred and sixty-three point five 33.88%
Pipe one hundred and fifty-two 2.92%
Extrusion coating nine 0.17%
Blow molding fifty-eight 1.11%
fibre seven hundred and fourteen 13.72%
wire drawing nine hundred and fifteen point three 17.59%
other three hundred and fifty-seven point six 6.87%

Chart 14 Consumption structure of countries in the world (unit: 10000 tons)

country products two thousand and six year two thousand and seven year two thousand and eight year two thousand and nine year two thousand and ten year two thousand and eleven year
U.S.A Film and sheet eighty-seven point one eighty-eight eighty-five ninety-two point two one hundred and three point one one hundred and three point eight
Injection molding two hundred and sixteen point five two hundred and twenty-five point three two hundred point six one hundred and eighty-one point three one hundred and eighty-six point four one hundred and eighty-one point four
Pipe -- -- -- -- -- --
Extrusion coating -- -- -- -- -- --
Blow molding nine point six eight point seven eight eight nine point two nine point three
Wire and cable -- -- -- -- -- --
Rotational molding -- -- -- -- -- --
fibre one hundred and thirty-one point eight one hundred and twenty-three point five one hundred and seven point five eighty-seven point seven ninety-two point five ninety-one
wire drawing ten ten point two ten point two nine point seven ten ten point two
other one hundred and seventy-three point six one hundred and fifty-six point seven one hundred and forty point five one hundred and thirty-three point nine one hundred and sixty-four point six one hundred and sixty-five point two
Saudi Arabia Film and sheet four point seven five point nine six point nine seven point four eight point three nine point six
Injection molding nine point one ten point six twelve twelve point four thirteen point seven fifteen point four
Pipe -- -- -- -- -- --
Extrusion coating -- -- -- - -- --
Blow molding -- -- -- - -- --
Wire and cable -- -- -- - -- --
Rotational molding -- -- -- - -- --
fibre four point two four point nine five point six five point seven six point two seven
wire drawing five point nine six point eight eight point one eight point four nine point one ten point four
other one point one one point four one point six one point seven one point nine two point two
Japan Film and sheet seventy-one point three sixty-nine point three sixty-six point one fifty point seven fifty-nine point nine sixty point seven
Injection molding ninety-three ninety point five eighty-seven point six sixty-two point eight seventy-five point four seventy-five point six
Pipe seventeen point one sixteen point five sixteen point nine eleven point nine fourteen thirteen point nine
Extrusion coating zero point one zero point one zero point one zero point one zero point one zero point one
Blow molding one point three one point three one point five one one point two one point two
Wire and cable -- -- -- - -- --
Rotational molding -- -- -- - -- --
fibre thirty-one point six thirty-one point seven thirty-three point two twenty-five point three twenty-nine point seven thirty point three
wire drawing fifty point seven fifty-eight point two fifty-seven point two forty-seven point one fifty-five point five fifty-seven point six
other six point three six point one four point eight three point four four point one four
Injection molding one hundred and seventy-nine point nine two hundred and twenty-five point eight two hundred and twenty-two point one two hundred and ninety-six point three three hundred and twenty-one point seven three hundred and fifty-seven point six
Pipe sixty point six sixty-four point two sixty-five point six seventy-four point eight eighty-one point three eighty-six point three
Extrusion coating zero point five zero point five zero point five zero point five zero point six zero point six
Blow molding four point six five point two five point seven six point two seven seven point six
Wire and cable            
Rotational molding -- -- -- - -- --
fibre one hundred and twelve point one one hundred and twenty-three point one one hundred and twenty-nine one hundred and fifty-nine point two one hundred and seventy-two point three one hundred and eighty-seven point eight
wire drawing three hundred and thirty point two three hundred and fifty-one point five three hundred and thirty-nine point eight three hundred and ninety-four point eight four hundred and thirty-six point nine four hundred and sixty-nine point two
other twenty-two point two twenty-three point five eighteen point eight twenty-one point seven twenty-three point five twenty-five point one
Thailand Film and sheet twenty-eight thirty-one point two thirty point eight thirty point two thirty-one point two thirty-two point four
Injection molding twenty-seven thirty point one twenty-nine point two twenty-eight point three twenty-nine point two thirty point one
Pipe zero point one zero point one zero point one zero point one zero point one zero point one
Extrusion coating one point seven one point eight one point nine one point nine two two
Blow molding zero point nine one one one one one
Wire and cable -- -- -- - -- --
Rotational molding -- -- -- - -- --
fibre seven point two eight point one seven point eight seven point three seven point four seven point four
wire drawing twenty point seven twenty-three twenty-two point six twenty-two point one twenty-three point six twenty-four point six
other zero point nine one zero point nine zero point eight zero point eight zero point eight
Australia Film and sheet eight point five eight point seven eight point nine nine nine point two nine point eight
Injection molding eight point two eight point four eight point five eight point five eight point six nine point one
Pipe -- -- -- - -- --
Extrusion coating zero point five zero point five zero point five zero point six zero point six zero point six
Blow molding zero point three zero point three zero point three zero point three zero point three zero point three
Wire and cable -- -- -- - -- --
Rotational molding -- -- -- - -- --
fibre two point two two point three two point three two point two two point two two point two
wire drawing six point three six point five six point six six point six seven seven point four
other zero point three zero point three zero point three zero point three zero point two zero point three

2.4 Analysis of World Polypropylene Trade

From the perspective of PP import and export in major regions of the world from 2006 to 2011, North America and Europe, as the main production and consumption regions with developed industries and high-end raw materials, have relatively mature markets, small demand increment, high product grade, and export volume is significantly greater than import volume. South America's imports and exports are relatively balanced. Africa is constrained by technology and other factors, and the import volume is significantly greater than the export volume, but the absolute volume of both is significantly lower than that of other regions of the world. The Middle East is completing the transformation from a pure oil export to a variety of petrochemical products export. With the low-cost advantage of raw materials, the upsurge of petrochemical construction in the Middle East continues. The export volume of polypropylene in the Middle East has soared in recent years, with an average export growth rate of 34.58% from 2006 to 2011. The import volume has not fluctuated in recent years. There are obvious regional differences in Asia. The market structure of relatively developed regions such as South Korea and Japan is relatively mature, while China and Southeast Asia are still the main demand regions.

Table 15 Global polypropylene imports from 2006 to 2011

Table 16 Global polypropylene export from 2006 to 2011

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