Shi Renping
Commodity futures, especially agriculture products The bull market of futures is surging, and the trading of futures market is also unprecedentedly active. But Liu Xingqiang, the general manager of Dalian Commodity Exchange (hereinafter referred to as "Dashang Exchange"), has his concerns.
His concern comes from the investor structure of the futures market.
In the past five years, the number of accounts opened by natural persons accounted for more than 95% of all investors in the firm, while the number of accounts opened by legal persons accounted for less than 5%. The proportion of the turnover (amount) of corporate customers in the total turnover (amount) was basically maintained at about 20%, and the remaining 80% of the turnover (amount) was completed by individual customers. In the transaction of corporate customers, spot enterprises (production, processing and trading enterprises of related products) are the main ones. In a narrow sense, the turnover of institutional investors (referring to various types of investment companies) only accounts for about 10% of the total turnover of corporate customers.
In recent years, the scale of China's commodity futures market has expanded rapidly. At present, there are 19 kinds of commodity futures listed for trading. In 2007, the total turnover of China's commodity futures market reached 728 million hands, with a turnover of 40.97 trillion yuan. However, the scale is still small. In 2006, the trading volume of the S&P 500 contract alone in the United States reached $22 trillion, about 1.5 times the US GDP (about $15 trillion).
Varieties need to "mature one and launch one". However, the trading volume and scale are closely related to the investor structure. Liu Xingqiang believes that an outstanding problem in the domestic futures market is that the investor structure is unreasonable and the proportion of institutional investors is low.
Private placement "fund" needs guidance and specification
"In the futures market, hedgers and investors should maintain an appropriate proportion, and the market should maintain high liquidity, so that the price discovery and risk management functions can be better realized." Liu Xingqiang said that at present, there are "funds" in the form of private placement in China, and they participate in the futures market investment through various ways, It has played a positive role in improving market liquidity, but it also faces the problem of how to guide and regulate.
Liu Xingqiang believes that, generally speaking, institutional investors pay more attention to risk prevention and the stability of investment returns, and can make more rational choices between hedging and speculation strategies to maintain a better balance. Those institutions with a cash background are more focused on hedging.
However, individual investors pay more attention to investment income, with high capital liquidity. The investor structure dominated by individuals will, to a certain extent, encourage the market speculation atmosphere, increase the price volatility, which is not conducive to the stable operation of the market and affects the functioning of the futures market.
Open four gates for "water diversion"
"International experience shows that institutional investors are the main participants in the commodity futures market and the leading force in stabilizing the market." Liu Xingqiang suggested developing institutional investors in the futures market through four channels.
Bulk commodity investment has become one of the four major investment fields in the world. Liu Xingqiang suggested actively guiding and cultivating commodity investment funds, carrying out the pilot work of setting up professional commodity futures investment funds, leading the establishment of futures investment funds by powerful futures companies, and at the same time accelerating the pace of innovation in futures market varieties, launching commodity futures suitable for futures investment fund investment Commodity index, options, etc.
Liu Xingqiang believes that the developed institutional investors in the securities market can also be allowed to enter the futures market conditionally, step by step and in a limited way on the basis of strict supervision, including securities investment funds, qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII), securities companies, etc. A considerable part of transactions in international mature futures markets come from securities funds.
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Sina statement: The content of this article is purely the author's personal view, only for investors' reference, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
