As the world's largest consumer of copper and aluminum, this year's growth will remain above 9% Citi: China's copper and aluminum demand remains strong
Reporter Huang Yu
A report released by Citigroup on Wednesday said that the consumption of copper and aluminum in China could still maintain a growth rate of more than 9% this year, after the Chinese stock market suffered a "Black Tuesday", which triggered concerns about the possible decline of China's metal demand.
John Hill, an analyst at Citigroup, predicts that China's demand for copper will grow by 9.2% this year, reversing the downward trend of last year. In addition, the demand growth in 2008 may also accelerate to 15% due to the expansion of demand for copper pipes and cables. He also predicted that China's aluminum demand growth this year will reach 15.5%, slightly lower than the growth rate last year, but still far higher than the growth rate in other regions of the world.
"We are still a firm supporter of the commodity super cycle," Hill said in a research report. He said, "We don't believe that the rise of metal prices is artificially driven and faces the threat of increased supply." Hill is still optimistic about the prospects of the commodity market, and believes that the commodity market is "entering a more mature stage", and metal companies with endogenous growth potential will enjoy premium.
China is the world's largest consumer of copper and aluminum, and the rapid expansion of industry has provided support for the rise of commodity prices. This week's sharp fall in China's stock market triggered a possible macro-control The fear of slowing economic growth. The international commodity market has also declined due to the "China factor".
Some mining companies including Freeport McMoran and Alcoa on Tuesday shares There was an obvious decline, but some losses were recovered on Wednesday. The ups and downs of mining stocks this week showed the market's concern about the possible slowdown of China's industrial output growth.
"Various economic indicators of copper consumption still show strong momentum", said Kenny Jordan, senior economist of BMO Capital Market, "China is a country with rapid industrialization and strong GDP growth." These indicators will promote the growth of copper demand.
Citigroup analyst Hill believes that many statistical indicators reflecting metal demand will support copper Aluminium price The grid rises. He expects the next few months Copper price It will reach 3 dollars/pound (6613 dollars/ton), and the copper price is currently around 2.75 dollars.
After falling for several consecutive trading days, the London Metal Exchange (LME) metal futures rebounded yesterday. As of 19:00 Beijing time yesterday, LME copper was up 1.43% at US $6135/ton, LME aluminum was up 0.35% at US $2837.5/ton, and other base metals were up in varying degrees.
Sina statement: The content of this article is purely the author's personal view, only for investors' reference, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
