Jiang Dongyi of Galaxy Futures
Ten years ago, 1997 was an extraordinary year. Since Hong Kong's century old colonial power was recovered, it has also experienced an unprecedented financial crisis. The economic development of the entire East Asian countries has seriously regressed, and years of wealth accumulation has been looted. Among the many painful historical experiences and lessons learned, how to maintain financial security is the top priority.
The development of financial derivatives has always been accompanied by disputes about whether to increase financial risks. Especially when reflecting on the Asian financial crisis, financial derivatives are often regarded as the main means for international financial giants to impact the currency and capital markets of countries or regions. So some people worry that China's capital market is in a semi open stage, and the introduction of stock index futures is very dangerous. We believe that this seemingly protective view of the domestic capital market will actually limit the development and growth of our financial power, which will harm our financial security in the long run.
First of all, stock index futures are not the root cause of the Asian financial crisis, or even the direct inducement. A large number of studies on the Asian financial crisis show that the fundamental cause of the financial crisis lies in the imbalance of the economic development structure of various countries. The direct cause is that excess liquidity leads to debt expansion, while the fund provider, Europe, the United States, Japan and other developed countries suddenly shrink their money, leading to rapid withdrawal of funds and sudden economic bleeding, leading to the crisis.
Secondly, from the perspective of the history of stock index futures, stock index futures are shares The inevitable result of the development of the market to a certain stage is a powerful tool for managing stock market risks. After decades of development, stock index futures have rapidly become one of the largest financial products in the world, which has demonstrated the rationality and necessity of its existence. After the share reform, the total market value of China's stock market has accounted for more than 90% of GDP, close to the level of developed countries, and is still accelerating. The conditions for the introduction of stock index futures are ripe.
Third, stock index futures can also be used to deal with financial giants. In the Asian financial crisis, different countries and regions used different means. Thailand and Indonesia had to raise their hands to surrender, beg for the assistance of the International Monetary Fund, sign the alliance under the city, and were forced to accept a large number of IMF loan terms that were detrimental to national sovereign interests. This was the last result. Malaysia, on the other hand, should be much tougher. It is the best policy to resist the international pressure and simply close the door to control the actual capital without asking for blood transfusion. The most successful is Hong Kong. The Hong Kong government took the initiative to enter the market to fight against foreign financial giants, and used foreign exchange, interest rates, stocks, futures and other financial instruments to comprehensively fight against international speculators, which not only successfully maintained Hong Kong's financial stability, but also enabled international speculators to recognize losses, strengthened the status of Hong Kong's financial center, and ensured the prosperity and development of Hong Kong after its return. This is the best policy. In addition to its solid economic foundation (Malaysia's economy was also relatively healthy at that time), Hong Kong's financial industry was developed and Hong Kong's financial management institutions were experienced. Therefore, the ostrich policy of keeping one's head in the sand to avoid financial derivatives is self deception, and only accelerating growth in practice is the absolute truth.
Fourth, with the acceleration of China's opening up process, stock index futures should be launched sooner rather than later. When we just joined the WTO, many people worried that our economy would suffer a strong impact. But the facts show that after joining the WTO, all walks of life in China have developed at a high speed, and the international competitiveness has been greatly enhanced. In the road of opening up and strengthening China, opening up promotes reform and innovation, and reform and innovation strengthen the competitiveness of opening up, which itself is a process of mutual benefit and development. It is dangerous to open without defense, and it will not have good results to build cars behind closed doors. The opening of China's capital market is a gradual process, Both QFII and QDII are transitional systems. From scratch, from few to many. In this process, our domestic investors can fully learn the concept, experience and operation mode of foreign investors, starting with QFII and then QDII, which also reflects the reasonable arrangement for domestic institutional investors to further compete with foreign investors on the international market after training.
Similarly, in terms of financial derivatives, our country is almost blank. This process is not too fast, but far behind.
November 2005 RMB rate The gradual reform has begun. This year, the banking industry has been opened to foreign capital. Foreign banks can operate RMB deposit and loan business. We believe that the opening under the capital account is not far away.
Domestic stock investment institutions have been able to participate in international stock market investment through QDII, but domestic institutions lack experience in financial derivatives investment and management, and are still unable to compete with foreign investors on stock index futures. Accelerating the launch of stock index futures and letting domestic institutions learn and master the investment management of financial derivatives as soon as possible is exactly the training process to be intensified when China's capital market is not fully open. Some people worry that there is a risk that China does not have a capital market open to launch stock index futures at present. Is it necessary to wait for the capital market to be fully open to allow domestic inexperienced investors to compete with foreign capital market players? Therefore, the maintenance of national financial security does not rely on the protection of closed countries, but on the development and growth of domestic financial institutions in practice.
