Huatai United Securities Co., Ltd. Yang Yanyan


Macroeconomy shows signs of warming

The process of debt removal in Europe is far from over, which is just the painful beginning of fiscal tightening. Greece is still "very likely" to default on its debt. The economy is still in a downward trend. According to the data of project commencement and investment product sales obtained from various surveys, there is still no sign of peak season coming in the economy. From the PMI data, the economy has stabilized and recovered. CPI is expected to fall below 4% in February. The reduction of reserve ratio has limited relief on capital, and it is estimated that foreign exchange reserves will not increase significantly in February. The capital situation is in a tight state. After the carnival last year, banks began to become cautious. The restriction of deposit to loan ratio restricted the credit creation of banks. Not only the deposit reserve ratio needs to be reduced again and again, but also the loan to deposit ratio needs to be relaxed. The old money creation model, which is based on foreign exchange and dominated by credit, is difficult to sustain this year. It is estimated that the new credit amount in February may still exceed the level in January, which may be around 800 billion yuan. The rising oil price is indeed worrying, which will drag down the global economic recovery. After all, it is the long-term way out for private capital to pay attention to the introduction of the new non-public 36 implementation rules. It is expected that the year-on-year and month on month data of real estate transactions may improve in the second half of the year. Therefore, it is judged that the trend of this year is that on the one hand, the housing regulation will continue to be suppressed, on the other hand, it will be conditionally relaxed. On the general trend, it will be slowly relaxed.

Moving forward in the trend

The European debt crisis tends to ease, leading to a generally active peripheral market, providing a good environment and excuse for the domestic stock market to rise. The main tone of the market has turned from a fall last year to a rebound, and the market has moved from cautious and step by step exploration in the early stage to the logic of beginning to believe that "real estate sales drive economic recovery". The loosening of the real estate industry policy in the future may affect the logic of the whole market. Throughout the year, it is expected to recover the lost land of last year.

The current trend is upward, and it seems that it should become the main theme if we continue to surge. The positive boost of various industries may continue, moving forward in the trend.

Alert to callback and concept speculation risks

The fund divergence caused by the rebound has gradually increased, the scale of reduction of industrial capital has also increased, the short-term pressure facing the upward trend is growing, and the medium-term market still needs to be confirmed by the economic fundamentals. In reality, the strength of economic recovery may be weak or flat, and may not keep up with the market expectations, which may be the trigger for adjustment. It is difficult to predict when the pullback will occur. The direction of market development depends on investor sentiment and confidence. Shenzhen Stock Exchange began to warn investors against the risk of concept speculation.

Focus on real estate related investment products

With the expectation of better sales in the second half of the year, stocks in the real estate industry may show some performance in the first half of the year. The real estate industry and even the related investment products industry may also be affected. The average value of changes in most industries continued to decline. The profit forecast of commercial retail and coal has been raised significantly. The price of cement slows down, and the price of glass may meet a short-term inflection point. Focusing on the focus of the "two sessions", investment opportunities that need to be focused include upgrading of traditional industries and strategic investment opportunities in emerging industries. Sina statement: The purpose of posting this article on Sina.com is to convey more information, which does not mean to agree with its views or confirm its description. The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.