The stock gods everywhere and the private equity market for clearing positions have experienced short-term turbulence

Editor's Note

The stock market crashed on Wednesday. Some said it was a warning and some said it was an opportunity. In fact, after the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index jumped to 2600 points, it began to fluctuate and upset, and the psychology of shareholders became more and more restless, especially those who rushed into the stock market regardless of everything.

Everyone talks about stocks, everyone buys stocks, money and "stock gods" are everywhere. How much money can you put into your pocket? How many "stock gods" never return? The stock market is high and the waves are fierce, and people who play the tide show a lot of irrational investment behavior, which is reflected in the way of financing, investment structure, investment psychology and investment behavior. The stock market is bustling, do you really know the direction?

"It is no exaggeration to say that many shareholders, especially the new investors who have entered the market since this year, have been successfully 'brainwashed' by the main force of the market. They are more and more bold, operate more and more frequently, and have less and less risk awareness. Especially since the end of last year and the beginning of this year, the mentality of many shareholders has evolved into 'fear not, fear not, fear not', or chasing up and down to maximize profits. It can be said that the mentality of these people has been extremely impetuous. "

"It's often the stock I just sold out when the market plummeted, and it rose in a few minutes, which made me feel uncomfortable. But this Monday's general rise, I thought it should be safer, so I decided to take a big position on Tuesday, but I was trapped again today, which can be said to have been slapped in the face, it's really no direction."

"I didn't expect today's decline to be so severe that there was almost no decent return. I thought that 3000 o'clock was like a thin sheet of paper that could be broken any day with a poke." On January 31, although it was another sunny day, the face of old Wu, a shareholder in a large brokerage house, was full of haze. He lay in a chair and muttered to himself in front of the Shanghai market, which had fallen 144 points, The face was still unbelievable.

"Yesterday, I just bought two stocks recommended by a consulting agency." Lao Wu showed the text message he received this morning to the First Financial Daily, which still contains inspiring words such as "firm shareholding confidence, and still considerable future market space", but today (January 31) these two stocks fell by more than 5% and 7% respectively.

Lao Wu's recent thinking is the same as that of most shareholders nowadays. Most of them are firmly optimistic about the future market, sniff at the adjustment risk of the market, and have the courage to chase the stock in high positions.

Since this year, although the overall market has changed from the steep upward attack at the end of last year to a gentle upward attack, the high position has been frequently and violently shaken. But the individual stock market is brilliant, and many stocks have soared by more than 50%. At the same time, although the Shanghai market has experienced a huge decline of more than 100 points or even more than 200 points for many times, it is often able to avert danger, which makes investors like Lao Wu more confident that the market is full of gold and more bold in operation. But no matter how big the feast is, it will come to an end. Will they pay the bill?

More and more bold, more and more frequent operations

"I can say without exaggeration that many shareholders, especially the new shareholders who have entered the market since this year, have been successfully 'brainwashed' by the main force of the market. They are more and more bold, operate more and more frequently, and have less and less risk awareness. In particular, since the end of last year and this year, it has evolved into 'not afraid of sets, not afraid of sets, not afraid of sets', or chasing up and down to maximize profits. It can be said that the mentality of these people has been extremely impetuous. In other words, we can also infer that the current situation of the market is not optimistic. " Lao Zhuang, an old shareholder who adheres to the principle of "short position above 2800 points", expressed his views.

One of the adverse consequences of the frequent operation of shareholders is the rapid increase in the cost of handling fees. In addition, the recent market is prone to soaring and plummeting, and individual stocks are jumping up and down. Many investors who have stepped at the wrong pace and are confused about the market trend have begun to suffer from heavy losses in a single day. "It's often the stock I just sold out when the market plummeted, and it rose in a few minutes, which made me feel uncomfortable. But this Monday's general rise, I thought it should be safer, so I decided to take a big position on Tuesday, but I was trapped again today, which can be said to have been slapped in the face, it's really no direction."

The accumulated loss of shareholder Lao Wu has exceeded 8% in recent days, which almost wiped out half of his profits this year. "Fortunately, the handling fees of large investors are low, 0.2% for both sides, and 0.6%~0.8% for many retail investors, which makes it even worse if you step wrong."

　 Entrusted financing claiming 100% minimum guarantee

A private equity fund manager who did not want to be named recently disclosed to the First Business Daily that he had millions of funds to operate before and had a split of four to six with investors. Everyone was very satisfied with the cooperation since last year. However, at the beginning of this year, the investors insisted on withdrawing without warning. He felt very strange, "I asked him many times, but he refused to say, but I think he must still invest in the stock market, otherwise there would be such a huge profit. Later, through a friend who knew the inside story, I realized that he had put forward money to do the entrusted financing of a major brokerage."

"It is said that the company can guarantee a minimum of 100%, and by the end of this year, 80% of the investors can be allocated, and 20% of the securities company can be allocated. It is also said that the securities company itself has issued a lot of funds. Moreover, the requirements are very strict, and the capital invested by the investors must be more than 3 million yuan. My God, I can't even think of such a minimum."

"Stock God" everywhere

The private equity fund operator told China Business News that another way is for the investor to submit an information fee of 10000 to 20000 yuan a month, and the consulting agency guarantees 60% of the monthly income. Lao Wu, a shareholder, also said that his two stocks were "bought with 50000 yuan of information fee. The consulting company asked me to buy all the stocks for half a year. I don't think they would break their own brand."

In addition, many shareholders also began to fall into "madness", and they strongly recommended stocks to people around them. "Everywhere you go, you can hear people talking about the stock market. There are shuttle buses for securities companies to open accounts, and everyone is in a hurry, because a few minutes later will delay the chance to make a fortune. Many people feel embarrassed when they grasp the target of stock recommendation, and the daily increase is less than 5%. Now everyone in the market is a god of shares. There are 20%~30% of them earning a week everywhere. The earning effect attracts more funds to pour in and take orders at a high level. Many people are looking at 3300 points near, 4000 and 5000 points far away, and all have clear forecast dates. "Lao Zhuang shook his head and sighed at the various" strange situations "of the market," I have seen too many of these scenes, which often indicates a major adjustment ".

　 Private equity funds for clearing positions: hear the implication

There will be a decline after a hundred days of blooming. The adjustment of the bull market is also very destructive. Laozhuang said: "It is obvious that those funds that have performed well since last year are 10 times more profitable in their positions in Suning and other stocks. Even assuming that they sell at the limit of decline, they are still 700%~800% profitable. Once there is a consensus of decline in the market, it is entirely possible to sell as much as you want."

Rong Jianbing, the private equity fund operator, also cleared his positions on Tuesday, "for a simple reason, I have always stressed that the number of gainers is increasingly significantly less than the number of losers, so we should continue to reduce positions proportionally until clearing positions. In addition, ICBC, Guoshou, Petrochemical and other super index stocks have also seen significant adjustments. In addition, the policy aspect is really not optimistic recently, such as the CBRC's strict inspection of credit funds entering the market. As long as the old shareholders who have been in the market for seven or eight years know what that means, they should listen to the implication. "

However, he also said that human greed is behind the recent market craziness, and once the market enters a major adjustment, greed will soon turn into fear. "Today (January 31), you also saw the expression of fear, which is a common psychological feature of the market. From one extreme to the other, human nature will never change. This is also what an excellent trader must learn to recognize and make good use of. In other words, the extreme fear means a large short-term opportunity, which can be reflected from many aspects, such as the withdrawal range of the market, the proportion change of the number of ups and downs, the volume change of ups and downs in the time-sharing trend, the stock price change of the big index and the decline list. In short, we must follow the trend and identify the turning point of the trend. "