FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) - In the Asian market on Tuesday (November 20), the market was worried that the slowdown in global economic growth would slow the pace of tightening by the Federal Reserve, USD Index Hovering near the lowest point in more than a week. The latest article of the Kshitij Consultancy Service on Tuesday focuses on gold, crude oil euro /USD, USD index, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY pound /USD and AUD /The future trend of the US dollar is prospectively analyzed.
The Kshitij consulting service team pointed out in the article that the euro/dollar may further rise to 1.1550, while the Australian dollar/dollar may fall to 0.7250.
The US dollar fell against almost all G10 rivals in the past week. With the decline of oil prices and the deterioration of US housing market data, traders reduced their bets on further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise the benchmark interest rate at the policy meeting next month, but after the real estate market shows signs of cooling, the possibility of raising interest rates in recent days has cooled.
According to the pricing of interest rate futures, investors expect that the possibility of the Federal Reserve to implement its fourth interest rate increase this year at its meeting from December 18 to 19 is 67%, lower than the possibility of more than 75% on November 13.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said last week that the US economy is performing strongly, but it may face resistance next year. Policymakers are assessing the extent and speed of interest rate increases.
Clarida, the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, said in a speech last Friday that the policy of the Federal Reserve is getting closer and closer to the neutral interest rate level, and it is "reasonable" to maintain the neutral interest rate level. There is some evidence that the global economy is slowing down, which is a sign that the global economic slowdown affects the economic prospects of the United States.
Clarida also said that inflation is not expected to rise significantly next year. This releases the signal of Dove Pie.
In addition to the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, the latest progress of Brexit and the political situation in Britain have also become a focus of the market.
According to a report in the Sun on Monday, 42 members of the Conservative Party of British Prime Minister Theresa May confirmed that they had submitted letters of no confidence against her, and 48 letters could trigger a vote of no confidence.
In addition to the Sun, the Sunday Times reported that seven major Conservative MPs were preparing to impeach British Prime Minister Theresa May. The newspaper said that the vote of no confidence could be held as soon as Tuesday.
Last Thursday, Teresa May experienced the most turbulent day since she took office. On that day, four senior ministerial officials and several government officials, including Brexit Minister Rab and Employment Security Minister McVeigh, resigned.
Their resignations and the departure of other cabinet members made enterprises worry again that the UK may leave the EU without reaching an agreement in March next year.
The Kshitij consulting service team wrote articles on the trend of major currency pairs and gold. The main contents of the article are as follows:
gold futures
An important short-term resistance for the gold price to rise to $1230/ounce. If the gold price cannot break this level, it may fall to $1210/ounce in the short term. If it breaks through $1230/ounce, it will open the space for gold price to test the level of $1250/ounce upwards.
(Source of daily line chart of gold futures: Kshitij, FX168 financial network)
USD Index
The dollar index is testing the daily key support level near 96.20. From the weekly chart, the dollar index still has room for further decline until 96.00-95.80, and then the dollar may recover from this region (this may happen next week).
(Source of daily chart of US dollar index: Kshitij, FX168 financial network)
EUR/USD
EUR/USD still has the possibility of further rising to 1.1550, and then the exchange rate is expected to fall from this level. The euro/dollar is facing resistance at 1.1500, while the weekly chart shows that the euro/dollar resistance is around 1.1550-1.1600. The exchange rate may test this region in the short term, and then the exchange rate will fall again from this region.
(Source of daily euro/dollar chart: Kshitij, FX168 financial network)
USD/JPY
USD/JPY may fall further to 112 in the short term. As mentioned yesterday, the 21 week moving average of 111.80 may also be a key support level. At present, they tend to think that the dollar/yen test will be 112 in the short term. Once it falls below the 111.80 level, the USD/JPY prospect will become quite bearish.
(Source of daily USD/JPY line chart: Kshitij, FX168 financial network)
GBP/USD
GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2900-1.2925, and further resistance is around 1.3000-1.3050. As long as GBP/USD is below 1.2925, they tend to think that the exchange rate will fall to support around 1.2700, and then recover from this level.
(Daily line chart of GBP/USD source: Kshitij, FX168 financial network)
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD may fall temporarily after testing resistance near 0.7340 yesterday. The decline may continue this week until the exchange rate reaches 0.7250-0.7225.
(Source of daily chart of AUD/USD: Kshitij, FX168 financial network)
EUR/JPY
The euro/yen may rise further until the resistance level of 129.25, or at most 130, and then the exchange rate will fall from the above level in the short term.
(Source of daily euro/yen line chart: Kshitij, FX168 financial network)
Checked by: Zui Qingfeng
