On Tuesday (November 20), INE crude oil generally showed a downward trend, because the global economy slowed down or had a negative impact on crude oil demand. At the same time, Russia seemed to be out of step with OPEC on the issue of production reduction, which made the market question the country's determination to reduce production, which made oil prices under obvious pressure. Market participants believe that the weak oil price will last until the OPEC meeting on December 6, before which the market tends to wait and see.
At the same time, as the main contract of INE crude oil is about to change month, the long-term average price of INE crude oil may move up, and the short-term target is 480 yuan.
Transaction Overview
Shanghai crude oil prices fell. The main contract SC1901 closed at 465.0 yuan/barrel, down 10.0 yuan, or 2.11%. 418592 contracts were closed, and the position decreased by 1456 to 62082. 310042 main contracts were closed, and the position increased by 4206 to 36896.
List of futures contracts and transactions
The current main contract is the SC1901 contract, with 4206 additional shares held within the day. According to recent data, the trading volume of SC1812 contract has significantly narrowed. Due to the approaching delivery, a large part of them are warehouse receipts to be delivered, so investors should pay attention to leaving the market in time.
At the same time, it can be seen that the current transaction activity of SC1903 contract is the same as that of SC1902 contract, but the number of positions is significantly higher than that of the latter, indicating that short-term market sentiment is still insufficient.
It can also be seen from the SC1901 contract that although the number of holdings increased by more than 4000 within the contract day, it does not mean that many orders have entered the market in succession. Because the number of holdings decreased in the SC1812 contract is significantly higher than the number of holdings increased, the number of holdings increased in the SC1901 contract may be more just to shift positions for months.
The weighted average price of INE crude oil today was 468.4 yuan/barrel, down 4.9 yuan from the previous trading day.
Closing position ratio
Judging from the trading position ratio, the indicator has shown signs of passivation.
Previously, he said that the trend of this indicator was just opposite to the market, and when it was at a low level, it often implied that oil prices would rebound.
However, after the decline of INE crude oil for a long time, this indicator did not further decline to the position in the middle and late September. On the contrary, this indicator began to slow down in the middle, which means that INE crude oil is still in the correction range, and no direction choice has been made.
forward curve
From the perspective of the forward curve, the current trend of INE crude oil is almost unchanged compared with that on November 16, but the difference is that the corresponding point has moved up, and the long-term average price has moved up from 475 yuan to 480 yuan.
The main reason is consistent with the previous statement, that is, the current contract has changed from SC1812 contract to SC1901 contract, and the price of the contract has risen. For example, today's closing price of SC1812 contract is 455.8 yuan, but SC1901 is 465 yuan, so the long-term average price has moved up, but the overall trend remains unchanged, which means that the market is still inclined to wait and see.
In addition, the forward curve is slightly different because the far month contract seems to be revised downward, which is inconsistent with the previous trend of volatility within the 475/480 range, because the far month contract previously hit a high of 490 yuan and has been revised to around 480 yuan. If it is leveled at this position, in the short term, it is still believed that the target of INE crude oil is revised up to around 480 yuan.
The price difference between US crude oil and INE crude oil further expanded
In fact, there are some other information to support the setting of short-term INE crude oil upward target at 480 yuan.
Judging from the trend of INE crude oil and WTI, the recent price difference seems to be further expanding, and once hit about $14.
On the one hand, it indicates that the US oil export may be sluggish, but on the other hand, it also indicates that Asian demand may be recovering, thus pushing up the price of INE crude oil.
It can be seen from the figure that the price difference between Oman crude oil and INE crude oil remains at a very low level, and the overall trend tends to converge.
In fact, Saudi Arabia and Iran are actively expanding Asian exports recently, and the latest data from China also shows that the crude oil import volume in October is still on the rise, so the short-term INE oil price may hit 480 yuan, but it may choose the direction in this position later.
Copper oil ratio
Finally, the copper oil ratio. At present, the two have begun to overlap, so the market has begun to choose the direction. If the recent copper price rises, indicating that the industry has signs of recovery, then the higher copper price may drive the rebound of oil prices. On the contrary, the economic recovery is still weak, and the upward pressure on oil prices is still obvious.
Fundamental plane
China's gasoline production in October and September showed two completely opposite trends
The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday showed that China's gasoline production in October increased by 8.2% year on year, while the figure in September fell by 7.9%, showing two completely opposite trends. However, the total output of six crude oil products (liquefied petroleum gas, naphtha, gasoline, aviation fuel/kerosene, light oil and fuel oil) in October was basically the same as that of the same period last year, and the crude oil throughput in October increased by 4.6%.
The specific data shows that the total output of six crude oil products in October was 39.9 million tons, basically unchanged from 39.88 million tons in the same period of 2017.
In October, the output of liquefied natural gas still recorded the highest growth, with a year-on-year growth of 13.3% to 3.5 million tons.
At the same time, the gasoline output in October increased by 8.2% year on year to 12.4 million tons, the second largest increase among the six major crude oil products.
In October, the output of naphtha crude oil increased by 6.1% year on year to 3.1 million tons, while that of aviation fuel/kerosene increased by 2.7% year on year to 3.9 million tons.
However, the data shows that the output of light oil dropped 7.9% to 14.93 million tons, which is the fifth consecutive month of decline since June 2018.
At the same time, the production of fuel oil in October also fell 14% year-on-year to 2.03 million tons, the eighth consecutive month of decline since March this year.
From the overall data, although China's crude oil throughput increased by 7.8% this year, China's light oil production from January to October fell by 1.1% year on year, while the fuel oil production in the first 10 months fell by 10.8% year on year.
However, the output of LNG increased by 10.6% in the first 10 months, while gasoline and naphtha increased by 6.7% and 3.7% year on year.
At the same time, the largest increase in the first 10 months was aviation fuel/kerosene, with a year-on-year growth of 13.1% to 39.86 million tons.
Energy completed RMO registration in the previous period
Hong Kong media said that Shanghai International Energy Exchange, a subsidiary of Shanghai Futures Exchange, was approved by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) on November 15 to become a recognized market operator (RMO), allowing eligible institutions and individuals in Singapore to apply to become overseas special participants and directly enter the market to trade crude oil futures. Last Energy was the first futures trading place in China to obtain RMO license in Singapore.
According to the report of Hong Kong Economic Daily on November 19, the last issue of Energy said that this is another important achievement of the internationalization of the last issue of the Exchange after obtaining the Hong Kong ATS license, which provides more legal and efficient channels for overseas traders and overseas brokers to directly participate in crude oil futures trading. The participation of different types of overseas participants is conducive to the better use of energy to serve the real economy in the previous period.
According to the reporter of www.cninfo.com.cn, the completion of RMO registration of Energy in the last period is a specific measure to strengthen the cooperation between China and Singapore in capital markets and serve the construction of the "Belt and Road". On the basis of summarizing the experience of crude oil futures internationalization, the Institute will further accelerate the pace of variety internationalization, improve the participation of foreign investors, improve the level of international services, and help China's futures market to form a new pattern of opening up.
