FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) - The US non farm data released last Friday was unexpectedly cold. However, the employment numbers that were significantly lower than expected did not give a heavy blow to the US dollar. Affected by the declining unemployment rate and the rising US bond yield, USD Index Keep 95 integer off. With the arrival of a new round of US economic data, UOB released the latest foreign exchange trend forecast.
euro /USD: neutral, falling below 1.1450. Attention should be paid to 1.1390
Analysts of UOB said that although the current expectation of the euro is still negative, the risk of further falling to 1.1450 is relatively small. On the upward side, only when the exchange rate effectively rises above 1.1580 can the exchange rate be considered as short-term bottoming. Unless the euro can quickly break through 1.1580 or fall below 1.1450, the euro may tend to fluctuate in the next 1-2 days. It is expected to fall further to 1.1390 after falling below 1.1450.
pound /USD: neutral, expected to test the top resistance of 1.3030-1.3220 range
Analysts of UOB pointed out that the downside risk of the pound is weakening. Influenced by the good news of the Brexit negotiations, the pound rose more than 100 points last Friday. Nevertheless, UOB still maintains the neutral view of sterling. The sterling is still in a range fluctuation trend, and it is unlikely that the sterling will continue to rebound. The upward space of the pound may be limited in the next few days. The exchange rate is expected to test the top resistance in the range of 1.3030-1.3220.
AUD /USD: neutral, expected to reach 0.7
UOB said that the Australian dollar is still under pressure, and the short-term exchange rate is expected to fall below the key support of 0.7030 and may fall below it. Analysts also pointed out that the exchange rate is currently extremely oversold, so the fall space of the Australian dollar may be limited. If it effectively breaks through the 0.7 integer level support, it will increase the bearish view of the Australian dollar. On the upside, unless the Australian dollar can effectively break through 0.7110, the Australian dollar will continue to bear pressure.
NZD/USD: neutral, it may fall to 0.64
In Asian trading on Monday, the New Zealand dollar/US dollar rebounded slightly, but it was still weak as a whole. Analysts from UOB said that the exchange rate has now fallen below the key support around 0.6450, and it is expected that the New Zealand dollar is still expected to fall below the 0.64 integer support. Falling below this level will further consolidate the bearish view of the exchange rate. On the upside, the key resistance will move down from 0.6550 to 0.6510.
USD/JPY: bullish, initially targeted at 114.70 in the upward direction
Analysts of UOB said that the exchange rate once hit a high of 114.53 last Thursday. Although the exchange rate recovered some of its rise, it is still bullish at present. At present, the exchange rate is still trading above the 113.50 level, which is the stop loss level of UOB. Only when it effectively breaks through one level can it be considered that the short-term exchange rate has reached the top. On the upside, investors need to pay attention to the trend of the US dollar in the next few days.
Editor in charge: Guo Jian
