Bond research: pricing analysis of China Development Bank's 18th~22nd financial bonds (increase 3) in 2012
Huatai United Securities Co., Ltd. Wu Lei market environment On the periphery, the European debt crisis continued to ferment. The possibility of Greece's withdrawal from the euro area is gradually increasing, and the market is generally worried that this may lead to systemic financial risks. At the same time, in countries with serious debt problems, such as Spain and Italy, bond yields continue to rise, leading to debt problems. According to the economic data released, the unemployment rate in the euro area has risen to a historical high, and the economic outlook is pessimistic. Affected by the above, the peripheral risk assets continued to adjust significantly last Friday. In terms of stock indexes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.22%, the London FT100 Index fell 1.14%, and the Frankfurt DAX Index fell 3.42%; Luntong fell 2.24%; New York crude oil Futures fell 3.75% to 83.23 dollars per barrel; Brent crude oil futures fell 4.49% to 97.77 dollars. In terms of macro economy, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in May was 50.4%, 2.9 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. PMI ended the previous warming trend, indicating the basis (Weibo) The current outlook is still not optimistic. From the sub index, the production index (from 57.2% to 52.9%) and the new order index (from 54.5% to 49.8%) both fell sharply. The finished goods inventory index rose from 49.5% to 52.2%, indicating that industrial enterprises are under increasing pressure to destock. In terms of inflation, with the recent sharp drop in commodity prices, the PMI purchase price index fell sharply in May, from 54.8% in April to 44.8%. In May, non food prices are likely to fall or increase to zero month on month. It is preliminarily estimated that CPI in May will fall to 3.2% - 3.3% year on year. In terms of monetary policy and capital, the market is expected to cut interest rates gradually. We believe that due to the current slowdown in loan growth, in addition to the demand level, there are also reasons for the loss of deposits, which has led to the pressure on the loan to deposit ratio of banks. In addition, considering that the CPI is still at a high level of more than 3% year on year, the central bank may respond to the risk of economic downturn through asymmetric interest rate cuts. In the context of the downward trend of inflation, it is expected that the funding will continue to be loose, and the 7-day repo rate will stabilize at around 2.5%.
