Weekly report of credit bond market: high yield is still expected, but credit risk is not far away

http://www.sina.com.cn 04:00, April 10, 2012 Sina Finance

Huatai United Securities Co., Ltd. Huatai United Securities Research Institute

The PMI data collected in mid March was significantly higher than expected, but its rebound was mainly based on seasonal factors, and the underlying economic rebound momentum was not obvious. Compared with several cases of economic bottoming and rebound in the past, the inventory of finished goods is still high, reflecting that downstream demand of the real economy has not been effectively released, and the economy is still hovering at the bottom.

When the economy is slowly bottoming out or hovering at the bottom, on the one hand, the next step of the policy will only be looser rather than tighter, which will help to create a stable interest rate environment and a good capital environment. The allocation demand of credit bonds will continue to remain at a strong level. On the other hand, the credit risk level of the entire market has not significantly increased. Therefore, the continuation of the market of high-yield credit bonds (including low rated short-term financing medium notes, urban investment bonds and medium rated industrial bonds) can still be expected. However, it should be noted that the recent operation of several high-risk industries has not improved significantly, the overall credit risk level of the market has never decreased, and the release of a number of listed companies' annual reports of poor performance will also raise the market's credit risk concerns.

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