Weekly report of inter-bank bond market: the economy is not afraid of "spring cold", and the bond market is temporarily flat
Lin Chaohui, Huatai United Securities Co., Ltd Important market factors in this period: the export growth rate is still in the decline channel (P3); Real estate sales continued to remain low (P3); In February, bill financing showed obvious pilot expansion but overall credit growth was moderate (P4); The year-on-year increase of CPI dropped significantly and initially reversed the negative real interest rate (P4); The issuance of central bank bills continued to be absent (P6); R007 It falls back to below 3% and 3M_Shibor is again lower than 1Y_Shibor (P7-P8); The primary market of benchmark bonds has a booming supply and demand (P9); All kinds of credit products continue to be issued intensively and the dealers' association has "expanded" the issuance guidance interest rate (P10-P12); The yield of the secondary bond market is mainly steep downward (P13). Analysis of bond market trend: the bond market rebounded this week, and the yield curve of various varieties mainly showed a steep downward trend. The downward range of yields of short-term financing, medium-term treasury bonds and short-term financial bonds was more prominent. This week, the further abundance of funds and the weak economic opening data are good for the bond market. However, from the perspective of the steep changes in the bond market yield, funds play a more important role in promoting the formation of the market. From the perspective of funds, R007 has fallen back to the bottom area slightly lower than 3.0% this week. It is expected that its further downward space is limited. Central bank bill issuance may continue to be absent in March, and the corresponding R007 is expected to hover at around 3.0%. From the perspective of fundamentals, the export, consumption and industrial added value in the first two months of this year all showed a low start, which is consistent with the fact that the credit "blowout" momentum in the first two months was lower than that in previous years. However, bill financing in February, as a leading factor of overall credit, has shown a relatively obvious expansion trend. After the recent reduction of reserve ratio, the accelerated decline of bill financing interest rate will further play a role in credit stimulus, The impact of the inventory behavior of fixed investment and the gradual recovery of the prices of means of production will also play an important role in supporting the overall demand. At the same time, the initial improvement of the overseas economic situation is also conducive to stabilizing the growth of exports and foreign exchange. We believe that the growth of new credit and industrial added value will rise synchronously from March, In terms of prices, it is expected that the year-on-year increase of CPI in the future is expected to slowly return to the front line of 3%. Therefore, the "cold spring" performance at the beginning of this year's economic growth will soon fade away, and the decline of inflation does not meet the conditions for turning to deflation. From the perspective of policy, considering the support of investment momentum and the reduction of pressure on the loss of foreign exchange funds, it is expected that the remaining reserve ratio will be reduced once or twice in the year, mainly in the first half of the year. In addition, when the pilot expansion such as zero real interest rate and bill financing has started, we believe that there is no feasible condition for interest rate reduction in the year. As far as the valuation of the bond market itself is concerned, at present, the yield of the secondary market of one-year central bank bills is slightly lower than the interest rate issued in the previous period, and the yield of three-year central bank bills is also basically close to that of one-year central bank bills, so there is limited room for the yield of central bank bills to continue to decline under the prospect of difficult interest rate reduction; In terms of medium and long-term interest rates, the benchmark yield of 10-year treasury bonds dropped slightly to 3.54% this week, slightly higher than its theoretical bottom line level, namely the current one-year fixed deposit rate of 3.50%, but still slightly lower than its long-term historical average level, so its valuation advantage has not yet emerged; After the steep change of the yield curve of credit products this week, the credit spread of AAA and AA+grade medium and short-term bills relative to financial bonds in the same period has returned to or even lower than its historical average, The interest margin between AA rated medium bills and loan interest rates over the same period has also recovered to a negative value and has exceeded its historical average. This week, the Association of Dealers will issue guidance interest rates "expanded" to 7-10 years and AA rated varieties may indicate that the expansion of medium - and long-term and low rated financing bonds will gradually accelerate in the future, and considering factors such as the severity of credit rating will inevitably decline, We believe that the current credit spreads have begun to show weaknesses. Based on the above analysis, this week's fundamental and capital factors are relatively favorable, among which the bond market is more sensitive to the impact of capital promotion. In the short term, the capital interest rate is expected to remain low, but the space for further downward movement is limited. In combination with the valuation of the bond market, the yield curve of various securities is also difficult to continue to move downward. It is expected that in the near future, it will remain mainly horizontal, It is also to be observed that the performance of credit and economic growth moderately rebounded due to the easing of funds in March. Suggestions on investment strategy in the secondary market: when the yield of medium and long-term benchmark bonds basically returns to the historical average and the credit spread of medium rated credit products is still slightly higher than the historical average, the allocation needs can selectively invest and build positions according to the normal progress. At present, the varieties with partial valuation advantages in yield mainly include 1-3 year financial bonds 5-7-year treasury bonds and 3-year AA+intermediate notes. In addition, normal allocation can also be made when the yield of benchmark 10-year treasury bonds is gradually close to its historical average of 3.60%. At present, there is nothing to do with the trading order, and we can wait for the opportunity to adjust the oversold in the future.
