Weekly report of interest rate market: economic growth factors continue to support the bond market
Huatai United Securities Co., Ltd. Wu Lei Main points: In January and February, the industrial growth rate fell back rapidly, while the growth rate of real estate investment stabilized. The main reason may be the impact of the commencement of affordable housing and other housing projects. The growth rate of consumption in January and February also fell unexpectedly. We believe that the growth rate of real estate investment will continue to fall, which will drive the growth rate of fixed asset investment to fall. With the sluggish consumption, the economic adjustment will continue. In February, CPI rose 3.2% year on year and fell 0.1% month on month. After the Spring Festival, food prices dropped significantly, driving CPI down significantly year on year. From the trend of the month on month CPI trend after the quarterly adjustment, inflation is still in the downward trend. However, due to the low base due to the month on month decline of CPI in March 2011, the tail raising factor will make the CPI in March still remain at about 3.2% year on year. Money market funds are loose. The 7-day repo rate has dropped to 2.99%, and the overnight Shibor rate has dropped to 2.3%. We maintain the previous judgment that the capital will usher in a period of easing, but the 7-day repo rate has little room to continue to decline. The economic data released on Friday showed that the economy was still in the process of slowing down, and economic growth factors still supported the bond market. After the previous adjustment and the recovery of last week, the market should re recognize that the probability of the economy and inflation continuing to fall is high, so the investment allocation plate will relatively recognize the current level of yield. Therefore, we believe that the probability of the yield of interest rate bonds continuing to decline slightly in the short term is higher than that of rising. We suggest that the allocation order should not reduce the long-term interest rate varieties prematurely, but instead increase the holdings appropriately. For the trading order, there is not much room for operation, but we can consider continuing to involve in the seven-year treasury bonds. Although the seven-year treasury bonds were actively subscribed during the bidding last week, the interest margin between seven-year treasury bonds and 10-year treasury bonds is still too small.
