Weekly report of the bond market of the exchange: the market rise is still restricted by expansion
Lin Chaohui, Huatai United Securities Co., Ltd Analysis of bond market trend: the stock market fell slightly this week, and the yield of inter-bank credit products mainly declined steeply. Under a more positive market environment, the bond indexes of the exchange declined as a whole, of which real estate bonds and urban investment bonds rose significantly. The average yield of representative securities of the exchange was nearly 20BP lower than that of last week, and its cumulative upward range since September 2010 was about 105BP, This is slightly lower than the adjustment of inter-bank credit products. The background factors of the obvious rise in the bond market of the Exchange this week include the relatively stable fundamentals, further easing of the capital level, and a slowdown in the rise of the stock market. At the same time, after the completion of a round of supplementary increase in the low rating middle ranking votes and a certain stagflation in the inter-bank bond market, some funds seek to use the bond market of the Exchange as a breakthrough, and the real estate and urban investment bonds with high interest rate advantages become the main varieties. We believe that the future rising space of the exchange bond market is still subject to two factors. First, from the perspective of the relationship between stocks and bonds, the stock index has begun to stabilize and recover under the policy guidance of "boosting stock market confidence" since this year. The central bank again lowered the reserve ratio in late February and the monetary market became more relaxed in March will promote credit growth and inject new impetus into domestic demand, Therefore, the policy will to be long and the trend of economic fundamentals are inclined to equity assets, and the "seesaw" impact of the stock market on the bond market of the Exchange will continue to exist; Secondly, it is increasingly urgent for the policy makers to accelerate the development of the bond market. Since the beginning of this year, the primary market of credit products has continued to expand significantly. This week, corporate bonds and corporate bonds have continued to be issued intensively. The continuous supply pressure of high interest varieties will also restrict the continued downward trend of the secondary market yield. Considering the above factors comprehensively, we suggest that the investment in the bond market of the exchange should be based on the medium and long-term fund allocation and holding rather than short-term trading spread factors. At present, it can be preferred to allocate in the primary market rather than the secondary market. The priority allocation varieties are mainly urban investment bonds with a coupon rate of more than 8%, an issuer's administrative level not lower than that of prefecture level cities, and a coupon rate of about 7% For corporate bonds with good qualifications and shorter maturities, we continue to recommend avoiding real estate corporate bonds. Suggestions on investment strategy in the secondary market: 12 residential bonds are recommended for primary market investment varieties in this period. In the secondary market, the 08 Changxing Bond and 08 Tieling Bond, which we used as investment alternatives in the early stage, still rose significantly this week. At present, the exercise period of the two bonds is less than two years, and the exercise yield has further dropped to 6.0% - 6.5%. It is suggested that we continue to focus on wait-and-see in the secondary market.
