Weekly report of interest rate market: waiting for economic data
Huatai United Securities Co., Ltd. Wu Lei Main points: We believe that this round of economic adjustment will continue and the economic growth will continue to fall in the short term before the introduction of obvious easing policies. On the one hand, as the overseas economy may adjust again, the peripheral demand may enter the contraction range again; On the other hand, the reduction of the demand for credit in the real economy indicates that the demand for investment and financing has begun to shrink. It is expected that the food CPI in February will fall 0.5% month on month, and the CPI will be in the range of 3.2% - 3.4% year on year. However, judging from the recent trend of international oil price and CRB commodity price index, the price of raw materials has risen. Moreover, the PMI purchase price index has risen for three consecutive months, rebounding nearly 10 percentage points from the low point in November, indicating that the upstream inflation pressure has risen. With the gradual increase of funds due in the open market, the central bank may restart the issuance of central bank bills and reduce the issuance interest rate to promote banks to increase loan issuance. Therefore, we need to pay close attention to the dynamics of the issuance of central bank bills in the near future. It is expected that the capital will usher in a continuous easing period. At present, the level of medium - and long-term interest rates and short-term interest rates are relatively reasonable. Before the economic data is released on Friday, the volatility of yield will be reduced. We expect that the growth rate of industrial added value announced on Friday may be slightly lower than the market expectation, which may cause a slight rebound in interest rate bonds and a slight decline in overall yields. We still recommend that trading orders wait patiently for the economic data to come out, and mainly wait and see. However, if the market continues to adjust due to unexpected factors beyond the fundamentals, it is appropriate to intervene in the 10-year treasury bonds with good liquidity to win trading opportunities. In addition, you can properly participate in the 7-year treasury bonds. As the trading plate fades out of the market and the investment plate re dominates the market, the interest margin between the 7-year treasury bonds and the 10-year treasury bonds is expected to widen. Changes in yield curve last week
