Weekly Report of Credit Bond Market: Medium and Low Ratings on the Stage
Huatai United Securities Co., Ltd. Huatai United Securities Research Institute Although the reserve released after the RRR reduction is not enough to have a direct impact on the fundamentals before it is converted into loans, the improvement of the liquidity of the banking system will still be conducive to the warming of the real economy. At the same time, the reduction of RRR will not only strengthen the market's expectation that the capital will be relaxed, but also directly benefit the easing of the capital and the decline of the capital interest rate. The impact of this RRR reduction on interest rate bonds will be limited. Even if the intraday yield drops rapidly, the probability of recovery will be large. Since the fourth quarter of 2011, with the beginning of partial credit easing, the data on the credit side has gradually eased. Although the proportion of loans with floating interest rates is still high, it has continued to slow down, and the weighted average loan interest rate of enterprises also shows signs of peak. According to the recent data of total credit and social financing, the financing willingness of enterprises has declined. On the one hand, the release of liquidity caused by this RRR reduction has improved the bank's lending capacity, on the other hand, the reduction of capital costs is also expected to make the real interest rate of loans continue to decline, so the financing environment faced by enterprises is expected to continue to improve. Considering that its financing demand is also beginning to slow down, the supply and demand environment for industrial bonds will continue to improve. At present, the main factor driving the recovery of medium and low rated credit bonds is the release of allocation demand, while the driving factors such as the bottoming of credit environment and the slowdown of supply growth are not obvious at present, but they can be predicted in the medium term. Therefore, the margin repair of medium and low rated securities will continue.
