Weekly report of inter-bank bond market: the total amount is loose again, and the bond market should be calm
Lin Chaohui, Huatai United Securities Co., Ltd Important market factors in the current period: the central bank again lowered the statutory reserve ratio by 0.5% (P6); Monetary market interest rate pulse upward (P7-P8); Next week, benchmark 10-year treasury bonds (P9) will be issued; The expansion of the primary market of credit products basically recovered to the peak state (P10-P12); The secondary market yield of bonds generally rose, but the short-term financing yield reversed (P12-P13). Analysis of bond market trend: The bond market continued to adjust this week, and the yield of benchmark bonds and credit products generally rose, but the short-term financing yield went down independently against the tightening of capital, indicating that it played a safe haven role in the market adjustment. From the perspective of capital, the superimposed factors of small and medium-sized banks' reserve for margin deposit expansion and the maturity of "private" reverse repo tightened the capital this week, but also triggered the central bank to implement targeted reverse repo again and reduce the reserve ratio, which is expected to be under the comprehensive guidance of the central bank R007 It will quickly recover to a reasonable fluctuation range of 3.0% - 3.5%. From the perspective of fundamentals, except for the interference factors of the Spring Festival, the opening data of credit growth is generally low. However, with the coming into operation after the festival and the central bank's latest reduction of the reserve ratio to play a role in policy stimulus, it is expected that the new credit in February will continue to steadily increase to 850 billion yuan or higher. Therefore, the overall momentum of the bottoming out and recovery of monetary credit is difficult to change, It will also have an important reverse impact on China's domestic demand led economy. At the same time, the international economic turmoil has shown some improvement factors since this year. On the basis of the gradual "soft landing" of China's economy last year, this year's economic growth is expected to be stable and maintained at 8.5% - 9.0%. At the same time, the future inflation pressure may fall back inertia but does not have the conditions to turn to deflation. From the policy perspective, the central bank's reduction of the reserve ratio this time is not only for the purpose of stabilizing the interest rate of funds, but also for the policy purpose of stimulating monetary credit. The pressure of loss in terms of the internal power support of the comprehensive economy and foreign exchange reserves has abated. It is expected that the remaining reserve ratio will be reduced once or twice in the year, and the time point should be mainly the first half of the year, In addition, against the background that this year's economic growth is expected to be smooth and the negative real interest rate has not been fundamentally eliminated, we believe that there is no feasible condition for interest rate reduction within this year. In terms of the valuation of the bond market itself, at present, the yield of the secondary market of one-year central bank bills is slightly higher than the issuing interest rate, and the yield of three-year central bank bills and one-year central bank bills also maintain a moderate term interest margin; In terms of medium and long-term interest rates, the benchmark yield of 10-year treasury bonds rose slightly to 3.54% this week, slightly higher than its theoretical bottom line level, namely the current one-year fixed deposit rate of 3.50%, but slightly lower than its long-term historical average level, so its valuation advantage has not yet emerged; The yield of credit products continued to fall short and rise long this week. At present, the credit spread of high rated medium and short-term bills relative to financial bonds in the same period has returned to or is lower than its historical average, so it does not have the advantage of credit spread, and it will also withstand the test of primary market expansion. Based on the above analysis, the latest reduction of the reserve ratio can not only promote the continuous abundance of funds, but also strengthen the acceleration of monetary credit and inject new domestic demand power into the economy. Therefore, it has a non "one-sided" impact on the bond market, which is relatively more conducive to short-term varieties and credit products. In combination with the current valuation of the bond market, it is expected that this reduction in the reserve ratio will make the yield of one-year central bank notes moderately lower than the previous interest rate, and drive the yield of 1-3 year financial bonds down by about 5BP. The short-term financing rate should be stable or slightly lower after continuing to decline independently. The yield of medium and long-term benchmark bonds and medium notes is expected to remain in place near the historical average, In general, the bond market should absorb the impact of this reserve ratio adjustment calmly. Suggestions on the investment strategy of the secondary market: under the background that the short-term end of the bond market benefits slightly from the policy and the other varieties are relatively neutral, the allocation demand can invest and build positions according to the normal progress. At present, the varieties with relative valuation advantages are mainly 3-year AA+medium bills. In addition, it is expected that the yield of benchmark 10-year treasury bonds in the near future is expected to fluctuate reasonably between 3.50% and 3.60%, When it returns to the historical average of 3.60%, the allocation can be moderately increased. The trading space is limited when the bond market yield curve is expected to move slightly steeply. At present, we still need to wait for the future adjustment of overshoot opportunities.
