Futures investment skills

(4) Financial and monetary factors

Commodity futures trading is closely related to the financial and monetary markets. The level of interest rate and the change of exchange rate directly affect the price change of commodity futures.

① , Interest rate

Interest rate adjustment is a macro-control means for the government to tighten or expand the economy. The change of interest rate has a greater impact on financial derivatives trading, while it has a smaller impact on commodity futures. For example, since 1994, in order to curb inflation, the People's Bank of China has significantly raised interest rates and the hedge and subsidy rates of medium - and long-term deposits and treasury bills, leading to soaring prices of treasury bond futures. On May 18, 1995, treasury bond futures were ordered by the State Council to suspend trading.

② , Exchange rate

The futures market is an open market, and the futures price is closely related to the commodity price in the international market. The comparison of commodity prices in the international market must involve the exchange ratio exchange rate of each country's currency, which is the exchange ratio of domestic currency and foreign currency. When the local currency depreciates, even if the price of foreign goods remains unchanged, the price of foreign goods expressed in the local currency will rise, and vice versa. Therefore, changes in the exchange rate will inevitably affect the corresponding changes in futures prices. It is estimated that the US dollar will depreciate by 10% against the Japanese yen, and the price of imported soybeans on the Tokyo Grain Exchange will decrease by about 10% accordingly. Similarly, if the RMB depreciates against the US dollar, the price of domestic soybean futures will also rise. The monetary policies of major exporting countries, such as Brazil's devaluation of the real in 1998, have greatly enhanced the export competitiveness of Brazil's soybeans. Relatively speaking, the increase in soybean supply has a negative impact on Chicago's soybean prices.