Futures investment skills

(2) Analysis of demand for futures commodities

The demand of the commodity market refers to the quantity of a certain commodity that the buyer is willing to buy and is able to buy at a certain time, place and price. It usually consists of domestic consumption, export volume and ending inventory.

① Domestic consumption

Domestic consumption is mainly affected by such factors as the income level or purchasing power of consumers, the number of consumers, changes in consumption structure, the discovery of new uses of commodities, the price of substitutes and the convenience of obtaining them. These changes often have more impact on the demand and price of futures commodities than on the spot market.

② International market demand analysis

Although the stable import volume is large in value, it has little impact on the international market price. Although the unstable import volume is small in value, it has a great impact on the international market price. The export volume is the quantity of domestic produced and processed goods sold to foreign markets, which is one of the important factors affecting the total domestic demand. When analyzing the changes, we should comprehensively consider the changes of various factors that affect exports, such as the supply and demand situation in the international and domestic markets, the price ratio of domestic and foreign sales, the changes of domestic export policies and import policies of importing countries, and the changes of tariffs and exchange rates. For example, China is one of the corn exporting countries, and the export volume of corn is an important factor affecting the price of corn futures.

③ Closing balance

The ending balance plays a dual role. On the one hand, it is a component of commodity demand and a necessary condition for normal social reproduction; On the other hand, it plays a role in balancing short-term supply and demand to a certain extent. When the supply of goods in the current period exceeds the demand, the ending balance will decrease; Otherwise, it will increase. Therefore, by analyzing the actual changes of the stock at the end of the current period, we can see the supply and demand of the commodities in the current period and its impact on the supply and demand of the commodities in the next period and prices from the perspective of the physical movement of commodities.