Futures investment skills

Whether we can correctly analyze and predict the trend of futures prices is the key to the success of futures trading. Therefore, every futures trader must attach great importance to the analysis and prediction of the trend of futures price changes. There are many methods to analyze and predict the trend of futures prices, but basically they can be divided into two kinds: basic factor analysis and technical analysis.

1. Basic factor analysis

The basic factor analysis method is to explain and predict the trend of futures price changes by analyzing the supply and demand of futures commodities and their influencing factors.

Futures trading is based on spot trading. There is a very close relationship between futures prices and spot prices. The supply and demand of commodities and the many factors affecting their supply and demand have an important impact on commodity prices in the spot market, and therefore will inevitably have an important impact on futures prices. Therefore, by analyzing the changes of commodity supply and demand and its influencing factors, we can help futures traders predict and grasp the basic trend of commodity futures price changes. In the real market, futures prices are not only affected by commodity supply and demand, but also by many other non supply and demand factors. These non supply and demand factors include: financial and monetary factors, political factors, policy factors, speculative factors, psychological expectations, etc. Therefore, the analysis of basic factors of futures price trend needs to comprehensively consider the impact of these factors.

(1) Analysis of futures commodity supply

The famous saying of economics is that in the long run, the price of commodities will inevitably reflect the price at the equilibrium point between supply and demand. Therefore, commodity supply and demand have an important impact on commodity futures prices. The basic factor analysis mainly analyzes the relationship between supply and demand. The change of commodity supply and demand and the change of price affect and restrict each other. The commodity price is inversely proportional to the supply, and the supply increases while the price decreases; Supply decreases and prices rise. Commodity prices are in direct proportion to demand. Demand increases and prices rise; Demand decreases and prices fall. Under the condition that other factors remain unchanged, any change in supply and demand may affect changes in commodity prices. On the one hand, changes in commodity prices are affected by changes in supply and demand; On the other hand, the changes in commodity prices in turn have an impact on supply and demand: prices rise, supply increases, and demand decreases; Price decreases, supply decreases and demand increases. This kind of mutual influence and causality between supply and demand and price makes the analysis of commodity supply and demand more complicated, that is, not only the impact of supply and demand changes on prices, but also the reaction of price changes on supply and demand.

① Opening stock

The beginning inventory refers to the physical quantity of goods accumulated in the previous year or quarter that can continue to be consumed by the society. According to the different identities of inventory owners, it can be divided into production supplier inventory, operator inventory and government reserves. The first two inventories can be listed and supplied at any time according to the price change, and can be regarded as the actual component of the available quantity of goods in the market. The purpose of government reserve is to reserve for the overall interests of the whole society, and it will not be easily put on the market due to general price changes. However, when there is a serious shortage of market supply and prices rise sharply, the government may use it to stabilize prices, which will have an important impact on market supply.

② Current output

The output of the current period refers to the commodity production of the current year or quarter. It is the main body of market commodity supply, and its influencing factors are also very complex. In the short term, it is mainly restricted by production capacity, resources and natural conditions, production costs and government policies. The influencing factors of different commodity production may vary greatly, so it is necessary to conduct specific analysis on the influencing factors of specific commodity production in order to accurately grasp its possible changes.

③ Current import volume

The import volume of the current period is a supplement to the domestic production, which usually changes with the change of the balance between supply and demand in the domestic market. At the same time, the import volume will also be affected by the price difference between the international and domestic markets, exchange rates, national import and export policies and international political factors.